20 September 2016

Lisa forms in eastern Atlantic, Karl may threaten Bermuda

Although very little has changed with Tropical Storm Karl, the disturbance I've been mentioning since last Friday was upgraded to Tropical Depression 13 on Monday afternoon, and then again to Tropical Storm Lisa on Tuesday morning.  Lisa is the season's 12th named storm, while in an average season, only 12 named storms form through the end of November!

Tropical Storm Lisa on Tuesday morning.
Lisa is centered just west of the Cabo Verde Islands, and is forecast to turn toward the northwest and head into a more hostile environment.  It may have the next few days to exist as a tropical storm, but model guidance and the NHC forecast indicate that it will weaken this weekend.  It is no threat to land.

About 1500 miles to the west, Tropical Storm Karl remains somewhat disorganized and sheared, but is expected to strengthen in a couple days as it recurves toward Bermuda.

Tropical Storm Karl... the yellow shading highlights low-level clouds and the white indicates higher clouds associated with thunderstorms.
The map below shows track forecasts from a variety of regional and global dynamical models, and while the recurvature scenario is extremely likely, the exact timing will determine how close the storm gets to Bermuda.  As I mentioned yesterday, Bermuda has had three hurricanes pass very close in the past couple of years: Joaquin '15, Gonzalo '14, and Fay '14.

As it looks now, Bermuda has a very high chance of experiencing at least tropical storm force winds.  NHC forecasts Karl to reach hurricane intensity by Friday, and perhaps reach Category 2 status by Saturday as it passes by Bermuda.

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