23 August 2015

Danny weakens further to tropical storm, will reach Leewards on Monday

The strong vertical wind shear that began to affect Danny on Friday afternoon has continued and is even stronger now.  This was anticipated, as was the weakening back down to a tropical storm.  Further weakening is expected.

Sunrise over Tropical Storm Danny.
As of the 5am EDT advisory, Danny's peak winds are down to 50mph.  It is moving west at 15mph, which would bring it to the Leewards by Monday morning.  As such, there are tropical storm watches and warnings in place for parts of the Leeward Islands.

The track forecasts, shown in a similar fashion to yesterday, have not changed much.  There are more members showing a path into the Caribbean, which in this case means Danny is weaker and being steered more by the low-level trade winds, according to those models. 

Model guidance and official forecast with cone of uncertainty as of Sunday morning.
The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Danny to be dissipated in five days, by the time it reaches eastern Cuba.  While most models agree with the weakening trend, one labeled GFNI (a regional dynamical model) most definitely does not!  In the track map above, that is the track that recurves sharply to the north.

Elsewhere, the easterly wave behind Danny (right off the African coast) is also likely to develop in the coming days.  It is moving quickly to the west, and could reach the Leeward Islands region by Friday, so I'll watch it closely.  The next name on the list is Erika.

Enhanced infrared satellite image over "98L".
NOTE: I probably won't write an update on Monday (vacation), but you can get the latest track forecasts, watches, and warning from the NHC website.  Thanks!

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