17 September 2012

Nadine heading for the Azores

Over the weekend (03Z on Saturday), Nadine reached an intensity of 70kts, making it the season's 8th hurricane.  After a couple days, it weakened back to a tropical storm, but just barely.  At 15Z today, it's a 60kt tropical storm (at 65kt, it would be a hurricane, so it's a fine line between two different classifications) and heading ENE at 15kt toward the Azores islands.  In the image shown here, shallow clouds appear yellow, while deeper clouds (tops of thunderstorms or outflow) appear white.  From this, it's evident that the storm is becoming asymmetric and losing its centralized deep convection.

Models agree that a significant slow-down should occur, and in five days, we'll still be talking about Nadine near the Azores!  In fact, most guidance is showing a re-recurvature when Nadine reaches the Azores... coming back toward the southwest and possibly re-intensifying.  Recall that the first advisory was issued for Nadine (TD14 then) on the morning of September 11, and the last could still be at least a week away!

The official track forecast from NHC has the storm centered over the Azores in 5 days... as a tropical storm.

Elsewhere, the basin is abnormally quiet for mid-September.

In terms of ACE, the season has slipped to 134% of average for this date.  As I mentioned on Friday, every day without a hurricane (or major hurricane, or multiple hurricanes) this time of year is "behind" an average day.

No comments:

Post a Comment