07 September 2012

Leslie making waves along US east coast, Michael weakening

First, a quick mention of the "ghost of Isaac" that was brewing in the northern Gulf of Mexico.  Its window of opportunity to develop has closed... before it took advantage of it.  Conditions are now too unfavorable for genesis, and all that remains is a low-level swirl completely dislocated from what little thunderstorm activity there is.

On to Leslie... a tropical storm watch has been issued for Bermuda, but Hurricane Leslie is in no hurry to get there.  It has remained essentially stationary for the past four days, and MAYBE by Sunday it will start the long-awaited northward trek toward Bermuda and then Newfoundland.  It is a very sloppy 65kt storm now, and after sitting in the same place for so long, has likely upwelled a decent amount of cool water from the ocean depths. 

A long radar loop from Bermuda will help keep tabs on exactly where the center is, and provide constant surveillance of the inner core structure.  Although the center of the storm is currently 1100 miles east of the Florida peninsula, large swells and waves will affect the US east coast from North Carolina up to Maine in the coming days.  Shown here is the wave height forecast valid on Tuesday (wave heights are in meters... multiply by 3.3 to get approximate conversion to feet).  Definitely a concern for boating interests, and for rip currents on the beaches.

Michael has weakened just slightly to a 90kt Category 2 hurricane as of 09Z this morning.  It is forecast to continue the gradual weakening as it heads north into the cold north-central Atlantic.  It's presently located about 900 miles WSW of the Azores and drifting north at 3kts.

Finally, a strong easterly wave left the African coast yesterday, and has an embedded 1007-1008mb Low.  This disturbance is favored by all of the global models to develop rather quickly in the coming days as it heads WNW -- and will likely become Nadine next week.

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