24 May 2012

Disturbance intensifies over southern Florida

A disorganized area of low pressure has gradually become better organized today, and is now centered about 50 miles east of Miami FL (designated AL94).  The strongest winds and thunderstorms are displaced to the east, but 30-50kt winds and flooding rains have been observed in and around Miami.  The weather station on Virginia Key recorded a gust of 50kts and a surface pressure of 1005.5mb.  The radar and satellite images below shows some banding around a very asymmetric circulation.

The system is currently in very strong vertical shear, so any tropical development will need to wait for the shear to subside, which is forecast to happen in the next couple of days.  In the meantime, the disturbance (or perhaps subtropical storm) will continue to bring strong and gusty winds to southeastern Florida and the westernmost Bahamas.  What track guidance there is suggests a continued motion toward the northeast, taking it further offshore.  Should this get upgraded to a subtropical or tropical storm, the next name on the list is Beryl.

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