29 October 2010

Shary forms far east of US coast, two other disturbances worth watching...

In a late-season surge of activity, there are three significant areas of tropical activity.  The first of which was recently upgraded to TS Shary (03Z today), and is located about 950 miles due east of Jacksonville FL.  This is the 18th named storm of the season.  Intensity is estimated at 35kts/1004mb, and it is just about to begin recurvature to the NE... heading directly for Bermuda later tonight.  Intensification will be limited due to the hefty vertical shear and cooling SSTs, so it's unlikely that Shary will become a hurricane.  You can monitor Shary near Bermuda at http://www.weather.bm/radarLarge.asp

Elsewhere, an extremely well-organized easterly wave is nearing the Windward Islands.  It existed the African coast on Oct 23 and has been quite impressive since then, particularly in the past couple of days.  There is a 1006mb Low analyzed with the system, and a plane will be flying into it later today to gather more accurate intensity data.  It's quite likely that this will be upgraded to TD 19 then TS Tomas within 24 hours.  It's presently about 400 miles east of Trinidad and heading WNW toward the southern Windward Islands.  Over the next several days, the eastern Caribbean environment will be favorable for significant development, so this could become the season's 11th hurricane.  The Windward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola should be very alert for possible impacts.

Finally, there's another area for potential development in the central Atlantic, about 1200 miles east of TS Shary.  It also has its origins from an easterly wave that exited Africa back on Oct 19 (it's the one I mentioned in my update on Oct 21 when it was near the Cape Verde islands).  Conditions are fairly hostile for this system to develop, but if it should, it would be TD22 then TS Virginie, assuming the previous system goes first.

Also assuming that Tomas forms from the disturbance nearing the Windward Islands, that would bring the season up to 19 named storms, a tie with the infamous 1995 season.  2010 is most certainly in the top 4 seasons in recorded history for activity, even if nothing else forms.  As of today (not counting current or future developments), it has seen five major hurricanes, four of which were Cat 4, ten hurricanes, among the most ever recorded in a season, and 18 named storms, also among the the most ever recorded in a season!

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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