An African Easterly Wave that left the coast of Africa on June 28 has been making its way across the deep tropical Atlantic, presently at about 11N 40W. It's heading WNW at 12kts, is over 26.5C SST, and there's little vertical wind shear. The MSLP is estimated at 1014mb.
Over the next few days, the system is expected to continue tracking WNW toward the Lesser Antilles. If a closed circulation and persistent central deep convection exist, it will be upgraded to TD3, and if sustained winds in the circulation reach 35kts, it will become TS Chantal. For reference, TD3 formed on this date in 2005 (became Cindy). 2005's season was memorable for its FOUR Category 5 hurricanes: Emily (formed July 11), Katrina (formed August 23), Rita (formed September 18), and Wilma (formed October 15).
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