31 July 2007

Bermuda disturbance upgraded to Tropical Storm Chantal...

At 03Z this morning (11pm EDT), the disturbance I mentioned yesterday near Bermuda was upgraded to TD3, then to TS Chantal just twelve hours later.  The latest intensity estimate is 45kts and 999mb.  It's located at 40.2N 62.7W, or about 1000 miles east of New Jersey, and heading NE at 25kts.
It is forecast to continue zipping off to the northeast as a tropical storm, but gradually lose its identity over the next 24 hours as it gets absorbed by an encroaching trough.

The tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles is looking much less organized today, with minimal convection and only a poorly-defined mid-level circulation presently located around 12N 51W.  It's tracking W at 12kts and still has a fairly good chance at further development.  The central pressure is estimated at 1010mb but is in a very favorable environment for intensitification.

The wave behind the aforementioned one is still notable in the satellite imagery and surface analyses, and is now at about 12N 36W, tracking W at 12kts.  And lastly, an easterly wave with some mid-level vorticity is just exiting the African coast now.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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