23 November 2005

TS Delta forms in the central Atlantic...

A strong subtropical storm has transitioned to tropical, and has 50kt 
sustained winds and a 982mb MSLP, making it TS Delta, the 25th named 
storm of this unprecedented season.  It is well away from land, located 
at 25.9N 40.5W and tracking SSE at 8kts.  The convection and outflow are 
very healthy, and while the SSTs are only 25C or so, the tropopause 
temperature is colder than average too, so the temperature DIFFERENCE 
between the inflow and outflow levels is still enough to support a 

The forecast calls for some strengthening, perhaps reaching hurricane 
status Thursday night into Friday morning, then becoming extratropical.  
The track is northerly at first (hence being nudged equatorward toward 
warmer SSTs) then southerly back into the mid-latitudes.

The NTC is now 253%.  If it is upgraded to a hurricane tomorrow morning 
(just supposing), the NTC would jump to about 256%.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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