01 August 2003

Disturbance slow to get going...

Same system I've been talking about for the past couple days, but it's
in moderate easterly shear, and more importantly [it seems] is that it's
in a stable, dry air mass.  This has choked off convection and inhibited
new convection from firing.  However the circulation is still intact and
awaiting more favorable conditions, which should be just a day away.

Presently at about 11N 42W and tracking W at 15kts, the MSLP is stil
1010mb.  The computer models paint a grim future for this system... very
hard to find a solution that intensifies the storm.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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