Andrea struggles off the southeast coast...

Since Wednesday, little has happened; the vortex has mostly remained devoid of deep convection, despite sitting over the Gulf Stream.  At 15Z today, the final advisory was written on the subtropical cyclone, barring any redevelopment.  It was downgraded to a Subtropical Depression yesterday morning.  Its intensity at the final advisory is 30kts and 1004mb, with a stubborn gasp of convection near the center.  It's presently just a 80 miles east of Cape Canaveral, FL.  You can track it on radar at http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=MLB&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=no

It's over 26C water, and in 10kts of westerly vertical shear.  Several reliable models do regenerate it, so we may not have heard the last from Andrea.  Even if it does manage to make a comeback, it should begin to drift back east toward the open (and much colder) Atlantic.

This system will doubtlessly stir up some confusion in the future.  It never was a tropical cyclone (as of now), yet was named because of the convention of naming subtropical systems.  For the purists who count only tropical cyclones, this won't count.  For the rest, who go solely by the number of named systems, it will count toward the seasonal totals.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

First named storm of the season forms right off the US coast...

Subtropical Storm Andrea formed this morning at 15Z just 150 miles offshore based on aircraft recon into the circulation.  The intensity is 40kts and 1003mb, creeping W at 4kts.  Although it has not yet transitioned to purely tropical, it is expected to do so in the next day.  This is an early storm for the basin, since hurricane season doesn't officially begin until June 1.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the section of coast between central GA and Flagler Beach FL.  The storm is not forecast to intensify prior to landfall near Daytona Beach early in the weekend.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

Stubborn wave nearly a depression...

The easterly wave that left the African coast on Sept 18 is still intact, and has been on the threshold of being upgraded to a Depression for the past couple days.  It's had persistent deep convection, but no luck closing off a surface circulation.  There's a broad 1009mb Low associated with it, located at about 23N 50W.  It's in about 15kts of westerly wind shear, and over almost 28C water.  The next number/name on deck is 9/Isaac.

There's an impressive wave just exiting the African coast today at about 11N 19W which is quite interesting.  Otherwise, the basin is quiet.  As we head into October, the favored cyclogenesis locations are the western Caribbean and off the US east coast: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/october.gif -- a sign of the "Cape Verde season" shutting down due to higher shear over the central and eastern parts of the basin.

2006 is on par with climatology so far, almost down to the day.  Using a 1944-2005 average, we typically have 7 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes by this date, and we've actually had 8, 4, and 2.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.