Claudette forms on the Louisiana coast

After watching the "Central American gyre" do its thing for a couple weeks, a named storm finally emerged from it: Tropical Storm Claudette.  And it was first named inland over southeast Louisiana early Saturday morning, just south of New Orleans.  It's quite rare to have the third named storm form so early in the season, but it has happened in 2020, 2016, 2012, 1959, and 1887.  Yes, it seems to be happening with greater frequency lately.  (Claudette is still a name from the original set of lists, first used in 1979)

Although still messy-looking on satellite and radar, it finally acquired the necessary closed surface circulation to become a tropical cyclone just as the center was coming ashore.  All of the rain was displaced east of the center.

It's always important to remember "there's more to the story than the category"... as even a marginal tropical storm has produced flash flooding, spawned numerous tornadoes in Alabama and Georgia,  and is already responsible for several deaths.

Now that it's inland, the hazards don't magically end.  Heavy rain is expected along its track out to North Carolina in the coming days, and a tropical storm watch is already in effect for eastern North Carolina because the remnants of Claudette are expected to re-strengthen as it nears the coast.  The map below shows the rainfall forecast through the next five days.

Elsewhere, the Atlantic basin is quiet, so nothing in the near future.  But when the time comes, the next name on the list is Danny.  And a bit of history: Danny has been in the six-year cycle since 1985... it replaced David which was retired in 1979.

• Visit the Tropical Atlantic Headquarters.
• Subscribe to get these updates emailed to you.
• Follow me on Twitter

Gulf of Mexico storm taking shape, warnings issued

The area of disturbed weather that I mentioned in my previous blog post on Monday morning has spent the past few days getting organized and is now well on its way to becoming the season's third tropical cyclone.

As of Thursday afternoon, it is classified as "Potential Tropical Cyclone 3", which means that it's still an Invest (not quite a tropical cyclone) but with watches and warnings attached because of its anticipated strengthening and proximity to land.  Indeed, tropical storm warnings are in effect from central Louisiana over to the Florida panhandle.

If this develops just a bit more, it will be upgraded to Tropical Depression 3, and then Tropical Storm Claudette.  But time is against it, as it will reach the northern Gulf coast by early Saturday.

It is a very broad and diffuse low pressure system, with a sprawling cloud shield displaced almost entirely to the east of the center. Although it has no chance of becoming anything menacing, it will bring heavy rain to the northern Gulf coast.  You will be able to monitor the rainfall using a long updating radar loop at http://bmcnoldy.rsmas.miami.edu/tropics/radar/. And as I mentioned on Monday, the areas that this storm will impact have still not recovered from the brutal 2020 hurricane season.  

The rainfall outlook over the coming week is shown here, and local totals could certainly be higher.  Peak values on this map are about one foot, and the widespread area covered by 3"+ (red-orange-yellow) is quite impressive.

It's worth mentioning that this system, an offshoot of a Central American gyre, has been in the model-world picture for nearly two weeks now!!  These can be notoriously slow to develop, and many never do.

[By the way, the system that was off the North Carolina coast on Monday was later upgraded to Tropical Storm Bill, but was short-lived as it raced off toward the northeast.]

• Visit the Tropical Atlantic Headquarters.
• Subscribe to get these updates emailed to you.
• Follow me on Twitter

Watching two features of interest, one with U.S. impacts

Monday morning's enhanced infrared satellite image with the two features of interest marked with Xs. The orange blobs define the region in which NHC suspects each of them could form within the next five days (both have a 50% probability).

It is only June 14, but there's a small chance of reaching the second and third tropical cyclones of the Atlantic hurricane season already.  The first feature of interest is a very slowly-evolving broad area of circulation in the Bay of Campeche (southern Gulf of Mexico) which has been festering and organizing for over a week already.  Tagged as "Invest 92L"*, it is going to ooze northward toward Texas and Louisiana over the next 5-6 days.

[* Invest is a term given to an area of interest, such systems get recycled numbers from 90-99 throughout the season, and L refers to the atLantic.  So, 92 is the third such invest of the season, and there will be several other 92Ls in the coming months.  They only receive a unique number once they have undergone genesis and reached tropical depression status.]

Even if it never becomes a tropical cyclone, it will still bring very heavy rain to the storm-weary and saturated northern Gulf coast on Friday-Sunday.  If it does develop, then add some wind to that rain -- but water is the big story.

Rainfall outlook over the next seven days.

As is typically the case with these large and diffuse systems, its future is especially uncertain.  Models have a difficult time pin-pointing when it will consolidate (if ever), and that timing affects the track, which affects the intensity. The map below shows tracks from the European model's ensemble out to Saturday evening.  Other models show similar messiness. Don't worry about an exact track anyway, the rain will cover a big area, as the map above suggests.

While 92L may still take a few days to get organized, Invest 93L is very close to being a tropical cyclone.  It is a low pressure system embedded in the tail end of a long cold front and is centered just east of North Carolina.  It is moving away from the coast and will just bring some chances of stormy weather to the Outer Banks today.  It has just a short window to do anything though; as it zips off to the northeast it will quickly encounter cold ocean temperatures by mid-week.

3.5-hour radar loop of 93L just east of the Outer Banks.

Should they both end up getting named, the system by North Carolina would be first (possibly today??), and the next two names on this year's list are Bill and Claudette.

• Visit the Tropical Atlantic Headquarters.
• Subscribe to get these updates emailed to you.
• Follow me on Twitter