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03 October 2012
Nadine joins rank of Atlantic longest-lived storms; TD15 forms
Today's update can be found on the Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang blog... thanks for reading!
02 October 2012
As Nadine fizzles, Oscar may be forming
Stubborn Nadine is still a strong tropical storm with 55kt sustained winds, and is expected to remain a tropical system for another couple of days before finally getting obliterated by a mid-latitude trough. It has been on the books for 20 days... in yesterday's post I highlighted the longevity record holders for reference.
One thing a storm does when it sits over the same area for a long time is upwell colder water from the depths of the ocean. In some places, the surface water might be warm, but that warm water doesn't extend very deep, making it easy for a storm to mix it out. Nadine has been in the vicinity of the Azores for a couple weeks now, and has generated quite a patch of anomalously cold water as shown here. A 2-degree Celsius anomaly is pretty significant, and greatly reduces the potential intensity of a storm.
As you can see in the satellite image below, it is a respectable tropical cyclone with an eye, indicating that it remains well-organized... the Azores islands are the yellow outlines on the right side of the image.
Now, there's another disturbance getting organized. It's an easterly wave that left the African coast back on September 28, and is now centered near 12N 39W (about 850 miles west of the Cape Verde islands) with a 1009mb central pressure. It appears to be on its way to becoming Tropical Depression 15 and then Tropical Storm Oscar this week.
The majority of models do intensify this to a hurricane, but also agree on a sharp turn to the north very soon, keeping it far away from land. Oh, and if you're in the Azores, you might get another tropical visitor this weekend... as if the current guest hasn't already overstayed its welcome.
Assuming it gets named this week, it will be the 15th named storm of the season. That is impressive, but far from a record. In 2005 and 2011, we saw the 15th named storm form on September 7, and then in 1936, the same thing on September 19. However, only about 8% of years ever reach the 15th named storm, so it's still an outlier in that regard.
One thing a storm does when it sits over the same area for a long time is upwell colder water from the depths of the ocean. In some places, the surface water might be warm, but that warm water doesn't extend very deep, making it easy for a storm to mix it out. Nadine has been in the vicinity of the Azores for a couple weeks now, and has generated quite a patch of anomalously cold water as shown here. A 2-degree Celsius anomaly is pretty significant, and greatly reduces the potential intensity of a storm.
As you can see in the satellite image below, it is a respectable tropical cyclone with an eye, indicating that it remains well-organized... the Azores islands are the yellow outlines on the right side of the image.
Now, there's another disturbance getting organized. It's an easterly wave that left the African coast back on September 28, and is now centered near 12N 39W (about 850 miles west of the Cape Verde islands) with a 1009mb central pressure. It appears to be on its way to becoming Tropical Depression 15 and then Tropical Storm Oscar this week.
The majority of models do intensify this to a hurricane, but also agree on a sharp turn to the north very soon, keeping it far away from land. Oh, and if you're in the Azores, you might get another tropical visitor this weekend... as if the current guest hasn't already overstayed its welcome.
Assuming it gets named this week, it will be the 15th named storm of the season. That is impressive, but far from a record. In 2005 and 2011, we saw the 15th named storm form on September 7, and then in 1936, the same thing on September 19. However, only about 8% of years ever reach the 15th named storm, so it's still an outlier in that regard.
- Visit the Tropical Atlantic Headquarters.
- Subscribe to get these updates emailed to you.
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01 October 2012
October Ushers in Highest Likelihood of Hurricanes in South Florida
Today's update includes the latest on Nadine, Nadine's longevity, the drought of U.S. major hurricane landfalls, and a focus on south Florida's hurricane climatology.
You can read today's post on the University of Miami's RSMAS blog. Thanks for reading!
You can read today's post on the University of Miami's RSMAS blog. Thanks for reading!
- Visit the Tropical Atlantic Headquarters.
- Subscribe to get these updates emailed to you.
- Follow me on Twitter
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