Over the last couple of days, Paula skirted turned toward the NE, encountered significant shear, skirted along the northwest coast of Cuba, and just recently has the final advisory written on it as a dissipated Depression over central Cuba. Yet another landfall to add to the seasonal count, and yet another one that the US dodged.
With the assistance of my colleague Phil Klotzbach, I have a 159-year climatological probability of hurricane landfalls anywhere along the US coast. In seasons that are this active (as measured by the Net Tropical Cyclone activity, or NTC, which is currently 173.5 compared to an average season with NTC of 100), the US has a 95.4% chance of being hit by at least one hurricane of any category. Moving the threshold up to major hurricanes only (Cat 3+), the US has a 20.5% chance of being hit by at least one major hurricane. Clearly, the US coast has been quite fortunate so far this season.
Back to the current state of the tropics, there are hints of a tropical disturbance festering in the extreme southwestern Caribbean, over Panama. There is low-level convergence along the monsoon trough, some enhanced vorticity centered near Panama, and persistent convection also centered over Panama. In mid-October, those ingredients at that location is climatologically favored for a north-moving western Caribbean hurricane. In several long-range global models, a strengthening storm does emerge from this cocoon in the coming 3-4 days, then make its way generally northward toward Cuba in about 9 days.
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
15 October 2010
13 October 2010
Category 2 Hurricane Paula stalling in Yucatan Straights...
Aircraft recon into Paula on Tuesday afternoon found much stronger winds than expected, and it was immediately upgraded to an 85kt CAT2 hurricane with a central pressure of 981mb. Since then, it has has changed very little... at 15Z today the intensity is 85kts/984mb. Though the forecast is for gradual weakening in the face of increasing vertical shear, a short-term temporary increase is possible based on satellite imagery. There is another recon plane en route to the storm as I type this, so in a couple of hours we will know better what the exact intensity is. It's a rather small storm, so changes (either increases or decreases) can happen dramatically.
Looking at the long radar loop available at http://einstein.atmos.colostate.edu/~mcnoldy/tropics/paula10/Paula_12-13Oct10.gif, you can see that the motion has slowed down quite a bit, and is now drifting to the NE at roughly 3kts. The forecast track is for continued slow motion, and turning to the E, then dissipating over the mountains of Cuba. However, there is large model guidance spread, and anything from completely stalling in the Yucatan Straights for a few days to getting picked up by the trough and heading NE over Cuba/Florida/Bahamas is within the realm of possibilities. If you are in any of those areas, you can keep up to date on the latest watches and warnings at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/144014.shtml?5day#contents
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
Looking at the long radar loop available at http://einstein.atmos.colostate.edu/~mcnoldy/tropics/paula10/Paula_12-13Oct10.gif, you can see that the motion has slowed down quite a bit, and is now drifting to the NE at roughly 3kts. The forecast track is for continued slow motion, and turning to the E, then dissipating over the mountains of Cuba. However, there is large model guidance spread, and anything from completely stalling in the Yucatan Straights for a few days to getting picked up by the trough and heading NE over Cuba/Florida/Bahamas is within the realm of possibilities. If you are in any of those areas, you can keep up to date on the latest watches and warnings at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/144014.shtml?5day#contents
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
12 October 2010
Hurricane Paula heading for the Yucatan...
A lot has happened in 24 hours... the disturbance that was off the Nicaragua/Honduras border rather quickly got better organized. A plane flew into the system and found much stronger winds than expected, and at 21Z yesterday, it was upgraded to TS Paula with 50kt winds and a 1000mb central pressure. Just 12 hours later, it was upgraded to Hurricane Paula, the 9th of the season. The intensity as of 15Z today is 65kts and 991mb, and it's located 150 miles SSE of Cozumel, Mexico and heading NNW at 9kts. Hurricane warnings are in effect for the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT18/refresh/AL1810W_NL+gif/
It is forecast to continue intensifying, and also to slow down. In 5 days, it is forecast to be in the Yucatan Straights, not far from where it is now. However, increasing shear is expected to hit it in about 3 days, so it might not make it to a major hurricane.
You can monitor its structure and movement via a radar loop from Cancun: http://einstein.atmos.colostate.edu/~mcnoldy/tropics/paula10/Paula_12-13Oct10.gif
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
It is forecast to continue intensifying, and also to slow down. In 5 days, it is forecast to be in the Yucatan Straights, not far from where it is now. However, increasing shear is expected to hit it in about 3 days, so it might not make it to a major hurricane.
You can monitor its structure and movement via a radar loop from Cancun: http://einstein.atmos.colostate.edu/~mcnoldy/tropics/paula10/Paula_12-13Oct10.gif
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
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