Since last weekend, there has been an area of disturbed weather gradually making its way from the southern Windward Islands to its current location just north of Honduras. During the past 18 hours or so, it has gotten much better organized... the convection is stronger, more persistent, and more centrally located over the low-level circulation. Based on those indicators plus and an aircraft reconnaissance flight into it, it was upgraded to Tropical Depression 1 at 22Z today (6pm EDT). The intensity was found to be 30kts and 1004mb and on an upward trend.
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, and the center of the storm will move ashore late Saturday afternoon. Although the Yucatan Peninsula is flat, it still cuts off a tropical cyclone's life support system: the warm ocean. When the storm exits the Yucatan later this weekend, it is unknown what condition it will be in as it enters the Gulf of Mexico (anywhere from mildly weakened to severely weakened). Regardless, the sea surface temperatures will be in the 29C ballpark, which combined with low vertical wind shear, the storm should re-intensify as it heads north across the Gulf.
TD1 will most likely become the season's first tropical storm within the next 6-12 hours, and the first name on the list is Alex.
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
25 June 2010
15 June 2010
Disturbance struggling in poor environment...
A combination of marginal vertical shear and decreased low-mid-level relative humidity seems to have taken a toll on the developing vortex. Deep convection associated with the disturbance has diminished, and it's now an exposed swirl of clouds centered near 13N 46W and tracking WNW at 13kts. It is not expected to regenerate. See http://einstein.atmos.colostate.edu/~mcnoldy/tropics/atcf/latestATL.png for the current location and prior track.
Switching gears to the season in general, we have 4 new names in the roster to replace retired names from the historic Florida-centric 2004 season (there is a 6-year rotation of names). Colin will replace Charley, Fiona will replace Frances, Igor will replace Ivan, and Julia will replace Jeanne. No names were retired last season, which has only happened 4 other times in the past 20 years: 1993, 1994, 1997, and 2006.
Due to large-scale environmental factors, this season is expected to be very active. Using a 50-year climatology, the Atlantic basin typically gets 9.6 tropical storms per year, 5.9 hurricanes, and 2.3 major hurricanes. The CSU forecast for this season is 18 tropical storms, 10 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. See http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2010/june2010/jun2010.pdf for details. The seasonal forecast from NOAA is also available here: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2010/20100527_hurricaneoutlook.html
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
Switching gears to the season in general, we have 4 new names in the roster to replace retired names from the historic Florida-centric 2004 season (there is a 6-year rotation of names). Colin will replace Charley, Fiona will replace Frances, Igor will replace Ivan, and Julia will replace Jeanne. No names were retired last season, which has only happened 4 other times in the past 20 years: 1993, 1994, 1997, and 2006.
Due to large-scale environmental factors, this season is expected to be very active. Using a 50-year climatology, the Atlantic basin typically gets 9.6 tropical storms per year, 5.9 hurricanes, and 2.3 major hurricanes. The CSU forecast for this season is 18 tropical storms, 10 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. See http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2010/june2010/jun2010.pdf for details. The seasonal forecast from NOAA is also available here: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2010/20100527_hurricaneoutlook.html
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
14 June 2010
Early-season African wave getting better organized...
This is my first update of the 2010 Atlantic season, so to all of the long-time subscribers, thank you for your continued interest, and to the newcomers, welcome! This marks the 15th consecutive year for these tropical updates, and some of you have been on the list since the beginning! Your subscription management page is located here: http://mail.engr.colostate.edu/mailman/listinfo/ats-tropical
Back on June 9, an African easterly wave exited the western coast of Africa and has gradually gotten better organized as it trekked westward. It's presently located near 10N 41W, or about 1400 miles east of the Windward Islands. It's moving WNW at 12-13kts and that motion is expected to continue for the next several days. There is a 1010mb surface Low associated with the disturbance.
Although not very organized now, it is heading into progressively warmer sea surface temperatures and higher ocean heat content, and the vertical wind shear is expected to remain low for the next couple of days. The satellite presentation is much more impressive today than it has been the last two days. Should this reach tropical storm intensity, the first name of the season is Alex.
It is early in the season to get a "Cape Verde" system to develop, but this season is forecast to be extremely active, as conditions basin-wide are a candy store for tropical cyclones. Storms in the same location as this one presently is typically end up in the Gulf of Mexico in about 1.5 weeks from now.
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
Back on June 9, an African easterly wave exited the western coast of Africa and has gradually gotten better organized as it trekked westward. It's presently located near 10N 41W, or about 1400 miles east of the Windward Islands. It's moving WNW at 12-13kts and that motion is expected to continue for the next several days. There is a 1010mb surface Low associated with the disturbance.
Although not very organized now, it is heading into progressively warmer sea surface temperatures and higher ocean heat content, and the vertical wind shear is expected to remain low for the next couple of days. The satellite presentation is much more impressive today than it has been the last two days. Should this reach tropical storm intensity, the first name of the season is Alex.
It is early in the season to get a "Cape Verde" system to develop, but this season is forecast to be extremely active, as conditions basin-wide are a candy store for tropical cyclones. Storms in the same location as this one presently is typically end up in the Gulf of Mexico in about 1.5 weeks from now.
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
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