Gustav, Hanna, Ike, and Josephine: the Atlantic is alive...

Since making landfall on LA yesterday morning, Gustav has drifted inland and is now centered near Shreveport LA, dumping copious amounts of rain over LA, eastern TX, AR, and MS.  It is now a 30kt tropical depression, and will continue to spin down.  Gustav was a very powerful and deadly hurricane, certainly not to be forgotten.  It caused tens of billions of dollars in damage and perhaps a hundred deaths across Haiti, Cuba, Jamaica, and the US.

Leaving no time to recollect a sense of normalcy, Hanna is over the Bahamas, Ike is in the central Atlantic, and Jospehine is near the Cape Verdes.

At the 15Z advisory today, Hanna was still stalled over the eastern Bahamas, and was downgraded to a 60kt (987mb) Tropical Storm.  Vertical shear is taking a toll on the system, and it could be a couple days yet until it relaxes.  Hanna is forecast to regain hurricane intensity on Thursday as it heads NW toward the southeast US coast.  Landfall is expected on Friday, perhaps clipping the Daytona Beach area, then up to the Charleston area.  Again, remember even 3 day forecasts can be off an average of 140 miles.  A hurricane warning is in effect for the eastern Bahamas, as far west as Cat Island and Great Exuma, and all the way east to the Turk Islands.

Since my second update on Labor Day, TD9 was upgraded to TS Ike, and is now a 50kt Tropical Storm with a central pressure of 1002mb.  Ike is located near 19N 45W and moving W at 16kts, and is poised to become the next hurricane in a couple of days (and perhaps a major hurricane after that).  In 5 days, NHC places Ike almost exactly where Hanna is now... down to the mile almost (always keep in mind the expanding envelope of forecast track errors with time though)!  So the Bahamas and Cuba should be preparing for this, and after that, the US in a week or so.

Also since my updates yesterday, the potent easterly wave I mentioned that had just exited Africa was upgraded to TD10, then quickly to TS Josephine, the 10th named storm of the season.  It's now near 13N 25W and tracking W at 13kts.  Intensity is estimated at 35kts, and 1005mb (and probably increasing rapidly).  This could become a hurricane within a day, but is at least a week away from any land or island.  The satellite presentation is very impressive now, with what appears to be an eye already forming.


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Hanna now a hurricane...

Minutes after sending my update out today, Hanna was upgraded to a hurricane, the 4th of the season.  Intensity is now 65kts and 985mb, and it's more or less stalled over the eastern Bahamas.

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Gustav makes landfall, Hanna and TD9 heading for US coast?...

Another powerful Labor Day hurricane for the record books.  A little sooner than expected, Hurricane Gustav made landfall near Cocodrie LA at about 15Z today, at an intensity of 95kts and 955mb.  You can watch the landfall via the New Orleans radar at http://einstein.atmos.colostate.edu/~mcnoldy/tropics/gustav08/Gustav_01Sep08_LIX.gif

A buoy located roughly 60 miles south of Pascagoula MS reported 34' significant wave heights** (individual waves could have been much higher).  The water there is about 900 feet deep, and the SST was 30.7C yesterday before the storm got there, now it's 27.9C.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=42040&meas=sght&uom=E&time_diff=5&time_label=CDT
Other notable automated observations come from Grand Isle:
http://tidesonline.nos.noaa.gov/plotcomp.shtml?station_info=8761724+Grand+Isle%2C+LA
and New Canal:
http://tidesonline.nos.noaa.gov/plotcomp.shtml?station_info=8761927+New+Canal%2C+LA

It's too early to know the extent of the damage in southern LA, as the storm is still there.  Levees in New Orleans have already been overtopped, but as of this writing, are still intact.  The next day or so will be the real test as time and pressure wear on... fortunately, the majority of the city is evacuated.  It will now continue to track inland over LA and eastern TX, likely spawning tornadoes and causing major flooding.  Four tornadoes have been reported so far in MS and FL, and flood warnings cover much of LA, MS, FL panhandle, eastern TX, and southern AR.  Without a doubt though, the name Gustav will be retired after this season, with probably ~100 deaths attributed to the storm, and tens of billions of dollars in damage across 4 countries.

TS Hanna is presently crawling (4kts) over the eastern Bahamas, creating flooding problems there.  Latest intensity is 50kts and 994mb.  It will pick up forward speed in a couple days, and then likely intensify to a hurricane as it heads for the southeast US coast on Friday.  Right now, the official forecast places landfall at the GA/SC border, but keep in mind that track errors 4 days out can be significant.  Recent satellite imagery is impressive: a centralized shield of very clod cloud tops (as cold as -85C), perhaps indicating that the jump to hurricane status is nearing.

At 15Z, the disturbance that was near 16N 35W yesterday was upgraded to TD9, and is now at about 18N 40W and tracking W at 14kts.  Intensity is 30kts and 1005mb, and gradual intensification is expected as it heads west.  This could certainly be TS Ike by this evening, and a hurricane by mid-late-week.  In the long term, this could be of great interest to Florida.

And as if the list wasn't long enough already, there's a new very potent easterly wave that has just exited Africa.  It's located at about 12N 20W, and has a 1007mb Low embedded within the wave.  Assuming TD9 takes the name Ike, the next name on the list is Josephine.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

**Significant wave height is calculated as the average of the highest one-third of all of the wave heights during the 20-minute sampling period.