26 September 2019

Karen battling dry air as Lorenzo becomes season's 3rd major hurricane

In the far eastern Atlantic, Lorenzo has rapidly intensified to become the season's 3rd major hurricane (Category 3+), with peak sustained winds of 125 mph as of 6am EDT -- just yesterday morning it was at 80 mph.  It will almost certainly keep going into Category 4 status, and could even reach Category 5 intensity (160+ mph) at some point.  Only about 2% of Atlantic named storms ever achieve Category 5 status, so don't hold your breath.

By the way, curious about other percentages? Of all 1637 known named storms (subtropical storms, tropical storms, and hurricanes) in the Atlantic from 1851 to 2019 so far:
  - 58% become Category 1 hurricanes
  - 20% become Category 3 hurricanes
  - 2% become Category 5 hurricanes
The forecast continues to confidently include a turn to the north beginning tonight which will keep this large and very intense hurricane far from land.  The exception to that could be the Azores... Hurricane Lorenzo has a chance to pass near or even over the Azores next Wednesday-Thursday.

Karen is now a minimal tropical storm.  Dry air has taken its toll on the tiny storm, and even after a slight resurgence in thunderstorm activity overnight, its days appear to be numbered.

The forecast from NHC still shows a northward motion through Friday morning, followed by a turn and/or loop toward the west, but continuing to weaken the whole time.  It could dissipate by the end of the weekend.  There is no model guidance that shows any threat to the Bahamas or the U.S. now.

Elsewhere, the basin is quiet, and no new development is expected in the foreseeable future.

No comments:

Post a Comment