02 October 2018

Watching Leslie in central Atlantic and disturbance in western Caribbean

Leslie formed way back on September 23 as a subtropical storm, and since then, it transitioned to an extratropical cyclone of hurricane intensity, back to a subtropical cyclone, and then to a tropical cyclone.  Maximum sustained winds are up to 65 mph and it could soon become the season's sixth hurricane.  It is centered about 540 miles east of Bermuda and tracking toward the southwest; it's forecast to loop back on itself... again.  To say the track has been meandering would be an understatement. And we'll probably still be talking about it next week!

Meanwhile, a cluster of thunderstorms is festering in the western Caribbean... south of Jamaica. There has been a growing consensus from the models that this could become Michael in the coming week.

Enhanced infrared satellite loop over the central Caribbean. The flashing white dots mark lightning flashes. (weathernerds.org)
The models also agree that the evolution will be slow, and this blob could take a while to get organized... if it ever does. But by the end of the weekend, it will likely have drifted northward toward Cuba.  It's way too early to say anything about a track beyond Cuba, and we've got plenty of time to watch it. *IF* it's destined for south Florida, it could reach that area by Tuesday-Wednesday.  At this time, no models are indicating significant intensification.

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