10 July 2018

Chris upgraded to a hurricane, and has barely moved in four days

Chris is officially the season's second hurricane as of Tuesday afternoon, and it's perhaps slightly disconcerting that the last time there were two hurricanes so early in the year was the infamous 2005 mega-season (Cindy and Dennis).  Climatologically, the second hurricane forms on August 29, so this is 50 days ahead of par.

Peak sustained winds have jumped up to 85 mph, the central pressure has fallen to 980 mb, and it is finally moving to the northeast at 10 mph. Tropical storm force winds extend an average of 80 miles from the center.  Due to a stagnant atmospheric steering pattern, Chris is located just 100 miles from where it formed last Friday... right off the North Carolina coast!

Center positions of TD3/Chris going back to when it formed on July 6.
Chris will continue to intensify as it picks up speed and heads northeast into the north-central Atlantic. It will impact Newfoundland overnight on Thursday, then head over to visit Ireland and the British Isles on Sunday-Monday as a potent extratropical cyclone.
Meanwhile, we still can't completely dismiss the remnants of Beryl.  Currently centered just north of Hispaniola, the disorganized blob of thunderstorms will pass over the Bahamas tonight and encounter an environment more favorable for regeneration on Wednesday-Thursday.  Even if it does regain tropical cyclone status, it is not expected to affect land at all after departing the Bahamas.

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