26 September 2017

Back in gear, and watching two active hurricanes

The last update and blog post I wrote was on September 7.  Between Hurricane Irma house preparations, subsequent loss of power and internet, then a 10-day vacation to Ireland, I have been largely offline since then. I started writing these updates in 1996, so this is the 22nd year, and in all that time, I never had a lapse this long during such heightened activity.  But I have no doubt that if you needed the most current information and forecasts that the NHC website was your place to go, and for blog posts to summarize activity, the Capital Weather Gang is a great stop.  I hope everyone reading this who was affected by the recent tropical cyclones is doing well and getting back to normal, but I realize that in some places, that may take a long time.

A lot has happened since the 7th (Katia's Mexico landfall, Irma's Florida landfall, Jose's long loop, Lee's little loop, Maria's landfall on the northern Leewards and Puerto Rico).  To summarize the activity from Irma through Maria, here is a map showing all of their tracks... note that Lee (14L) and Maria (15L) are still active and are both hurricanes:

For current activity, Category 1 Hurricane Maria is centered just off the North Carolina coast... tropical storm and storm surge warnings are in effect for the Outer Banks.  It is forecast to move away from the U.S. east coast.  Category 2 Hurricane Lee is centered about 1200 miles east of Maria and is not a threat to any land.

Hurricane Maria and Hurricane Lee on Tuesday afternoon.
Additional tropical cyclone development is unlikely within the next five days, but there is a disturbance that will crawl across south Florida from Friday through Monday.  It will bring elevated chances of thunderstorms and heavy rain... though the odds of it becoming even a tropical depression are slim.

Seven-day rainfall forecast, valid Tuesday morning through next Tuesday morning. (NOAA/WPC)
The season has now had 13 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes... and in terms of ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy), the season is at a whopping 242% of average for this date. We are on par to compete with the hyper-active 1995 and 2004 seasons (the 2005 season is in a league of its own).  Unfortunately, the season has also come with numerous landfalls -- only Arlene, Don, Gert, Jose, and Lee have not passed directly over land.

No comments:

Post a Comment