19 June 2016

Tropical Depression Four forms in Bay of Campeche

The disturbance that I mentioned yesterday was upgraded to TD4 on Sunday afternoon based on data from the aircraft reconnaissance mission.  In the satellite image below, the approximate center of the surface circulation is marked with a red X... the tropical cyclone is still poorly organized and centered in the Bay of Campeche (which is in the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico).

It has tracked toward the W-WNW as expected, and will reach the Mexican coast on Monday, perhaps as a tropical storm.  However, given the current appearance and the lack of time before landfall, it could very well never make it beyond a depression.  Tropical storm warnings are posted for the section of the coast that could be affected by tropical storm conditions should it intensify.

If named, it would be Danielle, and would also break the record for earliest formation of the fourth tropical storm.

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