04 September 2015

Fred STILL not dead, and future Grace brewing in eastern Atlantic?

Much to the surprise of forecasters, Fred remains a minimal tropical storm on Friday morning, being sustained by intermittent bursts of strong thunderstorms near the center.  It's barely clinging to tropical cyclone status amidst very strong wind shear, dry air, and marginal ocean temperatures. The forecast continues to indicate Fred dissipating to a remnant low, but we shall see.  Several models actually indicate that it could re-strengthen in about 4-5 days as it turns toward the Azores, so we could still be talking about Fred at this time next week!

Visible satellite view of Tropical Storm Fred from 7:45am EDT today.
5-day forecast track of Fred, or whatever is left of it, from the 5am EDT advisory. (NOAA)

Elsewhere, an easterly wave that exited the African coast yesterday is showing signs of development.  It is currently centered about 350 miles southeast of the Cape Verde Islands, and about 2800 miles east of the Windward Islands.

It is likely going to track toward the west-northwest over the next 5 days as it gradually organizes.  It could become Tropical Depression 7, and then the next name on the list is Grace.  Just for reference (this isn't a forecast), the average easterly wave travel time from this location to the Lesser Antilles is roughly seven days.

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