29 June 2014

Weak disturbance near southeast US coast

A low pressure system moved off the South Carolina coast on Saturday morning and has drifted to the southeast.  The disturbance is now centered about 230 miles east of Jacksonville, FL and is slowly getting better organized.  It could be upgraded to the season's first Tropical Depression today or tomorrow, and perhaps even the first named storm by mid-week... its name would be Arthur.  An aircraft reconnaissance mission is planned for later today to investigate it.

Visible satellite image from 9:45am... the center of the disturbance is due east of Jacksonville.  (NOAA)
The model guidance is suggesting that it will move slowly to the southwest toward the Florida peninsula, then by Wednesday morning get pushed back toward the northeast and head toward the Carolinas by the end of the week.  Again, it shouldn't be a strong system if it does develop, but even something weak and disorganized can produce a lot of rain.

Track model guidance from Sunday morning. Strong agreement on a FL impact by Tuesday, followed by a recurvature.  The last 6 names on the list are not dynamical models, but are shown for completeness. (NCAR)
Rainfall forecast through next Sunday morning. The 5-7 day locations, such as the Carolinas and areas north are less certain right now. (NOAA)
As of today, the cloudiness and rain associated with the disturbance are not affecting land, but that should change this week in northern FL and then up into GA, SC, and NC later in the week.

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