11 July 2013

Possible regeneration of Chantal?

Chantal officially dissipated into an open wave a few hours after my update on Wednesday.  Since then, it has brought heavy rain to Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti, and now, there are hints of at least a mid-level circulation center emerging on the northern coast of Cuba.

It is still very disorganized, but enviromental conditions are expected to improve dramatically along its path on Friday, so it's not out of the question that it could regain a heartbeat.

The map below shows the area of interest with a 3-hourly surface wind analysis overlaid... clearly depicting curvature in the winds centered on central Cuba (south of Andros Island).  To help monitor the precipitation movement, I have long radar loops available from Camauguey, Cuba and Miami, Florida:

The afternoon update on the various track forecasts from "cheap" and dynamical models shows this disturbance moving generally northward along the Gulf Stream, affecting Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina in the coming days.  By far, the biggest threat will be heavy rain and resulting flooding.  The majority of the worst weather will be east of the "center"... so over the Bahamas and the ocean.

The easterly wave I've been mentioning in the far eastern Atlantic is still there, but is getting engulfed by dry air and sliding north... now centered about 300 miles WEST of the Cape Verde islands.  This no longer looks like a candidate for tropical cyclogenesis in the foreseeable future.

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