31 July 2012

Disturbance slowly trekking westward

There is not a lot to update with regard to this disturbance, but for the sake of continuity, I'll include the latest information.

It's still a 1010mb Low moving W-WNW at 12kts, and is now located about 1400 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.  It's actually quite far south --9.3N at 12Z today-- which is keeping it somewhat removed from the drier SAL air to the north.  Over the past 12 hours, the deep convection has picked up near the center, which is likely a sign that it's ready to complete genesis and become a numbered system.  Most models do develop it, but rather slowly over the next several days.

The SST is still right around 28C and the vertical shear is (and will be) in the 5-10kt range.  It's still too early to seriously speculate on the long-term track of this system, but it is certainly something to keep a very close eye on.  Model guidance will improve once it's an established, trackable entity.

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