22 July 2011

Bret and Cindy come and go, possible action nearing Lesser Antilles

Sorry for the lack of updates during the past two named storms... I was vacationing in Miami since the 14th and got to experience the distant effects of Bret first-hand (wave height was 12" instead of 2" on July 17-18).

Tropical Depression 2 formed off the eastern coast of southern Florida on July 17, quickly became TS Bret, and zipped off to the northeast.  It reached a peak intensity of 55kts (996mb central pressure), and has since weakened, now barely holding onto Tropical Depression status.  As of the final advisory at 15Z today, the intensity was 30kts, 1009mb, and tracking NE at 18kts.  It's located about 550 miles east of Delaware and has lost its tropical characteristics.

On July 20, Tropical Storm Cindy formed about 500 miles east of Bermuda.  It has always had a subtropical appearance, and it continues to struggle maintaining TS status.  The SST under the storm is 19C and dropping fast (will be about 13C in 24 hours) and the vertical shear is 25kts.

Elsewhere, there is an easterly wave located at about 55W.  This wave exited the African coast on July 17, and has had persistent convection associated with it.  The limited number of statistical forecast models that have been run on it generally develop this system and bring it WNW toward Hispaniola and Cuba over the next 3-5 days.  We will see what the dynamical models produce once they are run on it later today.  Should this get named, the next name on the list is Don.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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