05 November 2010

Tomas re-intensifies as it passes between Haiti and Cuba...

Since my last update on Monday, Tomas behaved pretty much as expected, and continues to do so.  Copying directly from that update: "By later in the week, Tomas is forecast to regain hurricane status and very slowly make its way northward toward Haiti".  Well, Tomas has become a hurricane again, and is currently near the tip of Haiti's southern peninsula.  At 15Z, the intensity was 75kts/987mb and tracking NNE at 10kts.  By far, the biggest concern with this storm is the very heavy rainfall over Haiti, eastern Cuba, and the Dominican Republic.  There are many locations with Hurricane Warnings, please check http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT21/refresh/AL2110W5+gif/ for the latest.

By early next week, Tomas will become entangled with a mid-latitude trough and become extratropical.  But impressively, it's already been around as a numbered system for nearly 7 days, and probably will be around for another 3-4.  My colleague Phil Klotzbach pointed out that "it would be the second most NSD [Named Storm Days] generated by a storm forming on or after October 29 since aircraft recon began in 1944.  The most NSD generated by a single storm forming after October 29 is Hurricane Lili back in 1984, which generated an impressive 11.75 NSD".  So, yet another anomaly for this incredibly active season that will go into the record books with the company of 1933, 1995, and 2005.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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