19 July 2010

Disturbance passing north of Virgin Islands...

An easterly wave that exited the African coast about six days ago is presently just north of the Virgin Islands and moving WNW at 12kts.  An upper-level Low to its north has enhanced the outflow aloft (which has invigorated the convection), but at the same time, has also provided fairly strong vertical wind shear on the order of 20-30kts from the west (which will hinder attempts at organization).

The majority of models do not intensify this system, but if it should happen to survive its current and short-term environment, the large-scale steering pattern would bring it into the Gulf of Mexico by the end of the week.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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