23 August 2005

Jose hits Mexico, TD12 forms over the Bahamas...

As expected, TS Jose made landfall on the Mexican coast and has since 
weakened considerably inland.

Of much greater concern is TD12.  Although one can make a very strong 
case for it being the remnants of TD10, the NHC called it TD12... it was 
upgraded to a Depression this afternoon based on an aircraft recon 
flight into it.  The center is not exactly easy to find, as there 
appears to be at least a couple of them.  However, the convection is 
very intense, the SSTs are incredibly warm, and the vertical shear is 
minimal.  This will likely be upgraded to TS Katrina in the next 12-18 

At 21Z, TD12 was located at 23.2N 75.5W and tracking NW at 7kts.  The 
maximum sustained winds are 30kts and the MSLP is 1007mb.  This motion 
is expected to continue for a couple days, then turn west as a ridge 
builds to its north.  What this means is that it should turn directly 
into the southern tip of Florida as it intensifies.  Then, after 
crossing the tip of the peninsula, it should enter the Gulf and be under 
ideal conditions for rapid intensification.  If you're in FL or along 
the northern Gulf coast, be sure to check out the track forecast!  This 
is a small system, and has the ability intensify very quickly.

Further east, the large circulation I've been mentioning is still out 
there at about 18N 37W, but the convection is all displaced east of the 
low-level center.  It's seemingly very close to being upgraded to TD13 
if the convection persists.
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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