12 July 2002

Disturbance near Florida...

The area of disturbed weather in the northern Gulf has made some move
toward development, but is not much to be concerned about at this time.

The surface circulation is still there (approx 28N 87W), but still
elongated like it was a couple days ago.  One thing that HAS changed is
the amount of convection.  There's a respectable area of -65C cloud
tops, but their coverage has been decreasing over the past few hours. 
Wind shear is 10-15 kts.

So, it seems that the weekend will hold only gusty winds and stronger
surf than normal for the western Florida peninsula and the panhandle. 
However, due to the proximity to land, the recent thunderstorm activity,
and the warm Gulf waters, it should not be dismissed completely.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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