First off, apologies for the lack of posts lately! But it will be quick to catch up because the Atlantic had an incredibly inactive three weeks (last week of August into the first two weeks of September). Then, Tropical Depression 7 formed on the 17th in the deep tropical Atlantic, and that was upgraded to Tropical Storm Gabrielle shortly after. It just reached hurricane intensity on the afternoon of the 21st, making it only the second hurricane of the season so far (Erin was the other) -- then on Monday morning it rapidly intensified to become the season's second major hurricane (Erin was the other).
As of Monday morning, Category 3 Hurricane Gabrielle is approaching Bermuda but will pass well to the east of the island. It could still intensify some more in the next 24 hours; afterward, colder water will cause it to gradually weaken though still be a potent hurricane as it approaches the Azores on Thursday night.
I have a long radar loop of Gabrielle from Bermuda available at https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/radar/
Turning our attention to the two tropical waves in the tropical east Atlantic, NHC is giving a 40% chance of development to the western one, and 70% to the eastern one within a week... neither have been tagged as Invests yet, but the next two slots are 93L and 94L. The current positions of the waves are marked by X's on the map below, and the potential areas of formation within the next 7 days are the shaded orange and red blobs.
As of now, neither of them appear to pose a serious threat to land in the immediate future. Global model ensembles are a bit scattered on their long-term futures, so there's no reason for concern now, and there is time to watch and wait. Even the western one, which will be close to the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola, should just bring some rainy and unsettled weather to those areas on Wednesday-Thursday, but nothing too impactful in terms of wind. The Bahamas should be paying close attention for later in the week though as some models do develop it into a tropical cyclone by then.
By the end of today, the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) will be at about 56% of average for the date. At this point in the season, it would take some long-lived significant hurricanes to bring the ACE back up to average. It could happen though, and the season is far from over. The last few seasons with lower ACE by this date were 2015, 2014, 2013, 2009, and 2002.
As we watch the next couple of disturbances, the next two names on this year's list are Humberto and Imelda.
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