Beta hits Nicaragua hard...

Over the weekend, Beta wreaked havoc in Nicaragua and the offshore 
islands of Providencia and San Andres.  At 06Z on Saturday, Beta was 
upgraded to the 13th hurricane of the season, then at 06Z on Sunday, 
became the 7th major hurricane of the season just 50 miles off the 
Nicaragua coast.  The combined effects of very slow motion and 
intensification to a major hurricane caused tremendous rain to fall, and 
of course, flash floods.  Miraculously, no deaths have been reported 
yet, and only a few dozen injuries (this is preliminary).  Two big 
reasons are that the eyewall was very tiny, and more importantly, the 
citizens were warned and evacuated the coasts before the storm hit.

This is a welcome change of pace, after Katrina killed nearly 1100 
people, Stan killed over 1600, Wilma killed 38, and the list goes on 
with Dennis, Emily, Rita, etc.  Overall, a very costly and deadly few 
months.  From Arlene through Beta, the season's NTC is now a staggering 
249%, obliterating the past records for entire seasons.  There is 
exactly one month remaining in this hurricane season, and any further 
activity will just clinch the record even more firmly.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

Beta STILL a tropical storm...

Although nearly every factor one looks at for rapid intensification was 
satisfied yesterday, apparently, something was awry, as TS Beta has 
strengthened only slightly.  The latest aircraft recon flight into the 
storm provided an intensity measurement of 55kts and 990mb, suggesting 
that it is nearly a hurricane.  The hindering ingredient could have been 
a nudge of mid-level easterly wind shear, sub-par oceanic heat content, 
or a combination of the two.  Normally the heat content is not critical 
for such a weak storm, but it is moving so slowly that it becomes more 
important.

Another element of the forecast that has not been very accurate is the 
track.  For at least a day now, computer and human forecasters have been 
expecting Beta to turn to the northwest then west in response to a 
developing ridge to the northeast.  This hasn't happened, and the storm 
is still moving north, at 4kts.  This could be a critical error because 
if it crawls just a bit more north THEN heads west, it has hundreds of 
additional miles of ocean (Gulf of Honduras) to track over and become 
strong, headed for Belize or Yucatan.  If it does indeed turn west very 
soon, it will dissipate over the mountainous areas of inland Nicaragua.  Either way, it is forecast to become at least a CAT1-2 hurricane.

Relating to yesterday's discussion of record NTC this season, I created 
a simple pie chart showing each of the 23 storms' contribution to the 
total value (Beta is current as of 21Z today).  I put the actual values 
next to the major contributors (Dennis, Emily, Katrina, Maria, Rita, and 
Wilma).  The names start at the top purple slice with Arlene, and work 
around counter-clockwise.     
http://einstein.atmos.colostate.edu/~mcnoldy/tropics/2005NTC_pie.png

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

Beta forms in southwestern Caribbean...

The area of disturbed weather I've been mentioning all week was upgraded 
to TD26 at 03Z today, then further upgraded to TS Beta at 09Z today, 
making it the 23rd named storm of the season.

The satellite presentation is classic, and I see no reason why it would 
not continue to intensify at a respectable rate.  Microwave imagery at 
14Z revealed a compact and intense core under the CDO, and there are two 
major bands on either side of the center.  Shear is minimal, and SSTs 
are plenty warm, but the oceanic heat content drops off dramatically 
just to Beta's north, indicative of a shallow warm layer.

SHEAR:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html
SST:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/atl_anal.gif
HEAT CONTENT:
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2005299ca.jpg

The official forecast takes Beta up to a CAT2 hurricane before drifting 
into the northern Nicaragua coast in several days.  The rainfall from a 
slow-moving tropical cyclone near mountainous terrain can be devastating.  
There is a distinct possibility that it will drift far enough north to 
miss Central America and head up toward the Yucatan or Cuba.

There are two other tropical waves out there that I've been discussing... 
one that exited Africa on Oct 19 and one that exited on Oct 23.  They 
are currently located at roughly 62W and 40W, respectively.  Both have 
been persistent, easily-tracked waves, but both have been suppressed by 
strong vertical wind shear.  However, conditions are gradually improving 
for the western one, which is just now crossing the Lesser Antilles.  
This has the potential to become TD27 or Gamma in the coming week.  
http://einstein.atmos.colostate.edu/~mcnoldy/tropics/hovmoller/atlantic/

The NTC (Net Tropical Cyclone activity) is up to 236% as of 15Z today.  
This index takes into account the numbers of named storms, hurricanes, 
and intense hurricanes, as well as their respective longevities, and 
compares them to a climatological values of each.  An NTC of 100% would 
mean the June 1 - November 30 hurricane season was "average".

Today is the 300th day of the year, and "normally" we'd be talking about 
the 10th named storm, not the 23rd!  One of the principal drivers of 
activity in the Atlantic is the "Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation".  
This is related to the basin-wide ocean circulation whose speed 
partially controls the SSTs and heat content.  Since 1995, this index 
has been positive, then was negative between 1970-1994, but before that, 
was mostly positive from the mid 1920s to late 1960s.  So, if history is 
a teacher, we should be in for a long period of this enhanced activity 
before the AMO swings back to the negative phase -- perhaps another 
20-30 years?  The problem is, there is a lot more life and property in 
harm's way during this active era compared to the last one 50-80 years 
ago!

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

Three active tropical waves keep the season alive...

It's easy to track coherent waves across the tropical Atlantic using 
this page:
http://einstein.atmos.colostate.edu/~mcnoldy/tropics/hovmoller/atlantic/, 
and from it, you can see the one near 80W, 55W, and 30W.  They become 
less organized as you look east.  With that in mind, the westernmost 
wave is looking very interesting and is very close to becoming TD26 or 
even TS Beta.

The satellite presentation has improved markedly just during the day, 
with a banding feature to the north, and some deep convection forming 
near and wrapping around what appears to be a low-level center.  It is 
just east of Costa Rica and nearly stationary, perhaps a northwest 
crawl.  The forecast would be to develop it and continue a NW drift into 
Nicaragua.  The rain from this storm could be devastating to several 
Central American countries.

I'll just briefly point out that the next wave, at 55W, is heading into 
a more favorable environment so should also be watched closely.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

Wilma becomes an extratropical monster...

After thrashing southern Florida, Wilma quickly moved up along the 
coast, interacting with the deep trough to its west and associated 
mid-latitude Low.   The damage from Wilma in Mexico and the US combined 
is incredible, probably in the $15 billion ballpark, one of the 
costliest hurricanes (certainly behind Katrina and Andrew though).  
There are still 10s of thousands of tourists left stranded in terrible 
conditions in Cancun and Cozumel, and many millions of people in Florida 
without power, perhaps for a few weeks.

The final advisory was written at 21Z today on Wilma, with sustained 
winds of 75kts and racing NE at 46kts.  It merged with the mid-latitude 
storm over the northeast US and has created a very potent hybrid 
Nor'easter.  New England and southeast Canada are experiencing some 
hefty winds, torrential rains, and crippling snow as a result.
http://einstein.atmos.colostate.edu/~mcnoldy/tropics/wilma/prog12hr.gif
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/surface/displaySfc.php?region=car&endDate=20051025&endTime=-1&duration=0

Elsewhere, a tropical wave that exited Africa about 2 weeks ago is in 
the southwestern Caribbean Sea and showing signs of organization.  If it 
develops, it would drift northward, and the next number/name on deck is 
26/Beta.

The season's NTC is now a new record... 234.1%.  And as if breaking the 
record isn't enough... we still have 5 weeks left in this active 
hurricane season!

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

Wilma makes US landfall, Alpha dissipates...

At about 11Z this morning, Wilma made landfall as a powerful CAT3 
hurricane on Cape Romano, FL.  Upon exiting the Yucatan, it was a CAT2, 
but intensified back up to 110kts by the time it reached Florida.  
Reports are that places to the south of landfall got an 18' storm surge, 
including major surge damage in the Keys.  Also, the southern (right) 
eyewall went directly over Miami as a CAT2.  Even Havana, Cuba is under 
6' of water from Wilma.  A radar loop showing landfall in FL can be 
found at 
http://einstein.atmos.colostate.edu/~mcnoldy/tropics/wilma/kbyx/Wilma_RadarKBYX.gif
This is the 4th major hurricane landfall on the US this year, which is a 
new record... many years have had 3 major US landfalls, but never 4, 
until now.

At 15Z, Wilma was located at 26.9N 80.0W (very near West Palm Beach) and 
tracking NE at 22kts.  A cold front and trough are right on its heels so 
there is certainly some baroclinic interaction occurring, which means 
the extratropical transition is not far behind -- the forward speed 
indicates this as well.

Alpha was only a tropical storm for 3/4 of a day, then after crossing 
over the mountainous island of Hispaniola, it was dimished to a weak 
tropical depression, and is presently beginning to merge with Wilma's 
large circulation.  However, though Alpha was weak and short-lived, it 
did set the record for number of named storms in a season... 22.  And 
the season still has 5 weeks left!  The next few names on deck are Beta, 
Gamma, Delta, and Epsilon.  A tropical wave that left Africa on Oct 19 
is currently at about 45W and has maintained persistent convection and 
is worth keeping an eye on.

The NTC as of 15Z today is 230.3%, second only behind 2004 which was 
233% (if you count STS Nicole).  We have surpassed the mega years of 
1933, 1995, 1926, and 1950.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

Wilma STILL pounding the Yucatan, and TS Alpha forms...

Since Friday morning, Cozumel, Cancun, and the entire tip of the Yucatan peninsula have been pummeled by a major hurricane, including 100-130mph sustained winds and over 5 FEET of rain.  This could be a catastrophic blow to these populated resort areas.  Once again, the latest radar image from Cancun can be found at
http://einstein.atmos.colostate.edu/~mcnoldy/tropics/wilma/latest.gif
and there is a growing (now pretty large) radar loop at http://einstein.atmos.colostate.edu/~mcnoldy/tropics/wilma/Wilma_Radar.gif
The radar imagery still shows a very well-defined and large eyewall 75 miles across.

Wilma is now located right on the northern coast of the Yucatan and creeping north at 2kts.  Intensity is down to 85kts and 957mb.  As it drifts off the coast and enters the Gulf, it could re-intensify a bit.
The hurricane force winds extend out 75 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend out about 160 miles from the center. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for all of southern Florida, basically south of Tampa and Cape Canaveral.  US landfall is expected midday Monday as a CAT2 hurricane near Fort Myers.  The Florida Keys are under a mandatory evacuation as well.

This morning at 15Z, the first advisory was written on TD25, which formed in the eastern Caribbean.  Even more amazing is that this came from an African wave about 10-11 days ago.  Then at 21Z, it was upgraded to Tropical Storm Alpha, the 22nd named storm of the season.  This now sets the record for the highest number of named storms ever in the Atlantic.  The plan in place was to use the Greek alpha bet once the English alphabet is used up (and only 21 of 26 letters are used).

It has become much better organized throughout the day, showing healthy banding features and outflow.  It is just a few miles south of the Dominican Republic and is headed north toward it, hindering any chances for development, but still will cause heavy rain thoughout Hispaniola. A Tropical Storm Warning is in place for Hispaniola and the eastern Bahama islands.  The forecast is to head north then northeast into the open ocean, and probably not making it to hurricane intensity.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

Wilma pounds Yucatan...

Wilma remained on course for a direct hit on Cozumel and Cancun, and has 
unfortunately almost stalled there.  The island of Cozumel has been in 
the eyewall for much of the afternoon.  Again, you can find the latest 
radar image from Cancun at 
http://einstein.atmos.colostate.edu/~mcnoldy/tropics/wilma/latest.gif 
and if you're interested in watching a long and growing radar loop, 
that's available at 
http://einstein.atmos.colostate.edu/~mcnoldy/tropics/wilma/Wilma_Radar.gif

Aircraft have been flying it all day, and the pressure has remained 
steady in the mid 920mb ballpark.  The eyewall has contracted slightly 
during the day, now down to 24 miles across.  Sustained winds are 120kts 
with gusts to 145kts.  The cirrent location is directly over Cozumel.

The forecast is pretty bad for Mexico... the storm is expected to stall 
over the Yucatan peninsula for a couple of days, then with the next 
trough, get pushed ENE toward southern FL.  US landfall is now forecast 
to be Monday afternoon near Fort Myers as a CAT2 hurricane.  The 
intensity forecast is VERY iffy at this point, so FL residents should 
prepare for much worse and hope for the best.  Wilma is already 
responsible for at least 13 deaths.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

Wilma taking aim at the Yucatan...

The mighty Wilma has undergone an eyewall replacement cycle, meaning 
that the once tiny eyewall of yesterday has been replaced by a larger 
one.  This process typically weakens a storm a bit, but leaves room for 
further strengthening.  I think of it like a hermit crab leaving a shell 
it has outgrown and crawling into a new one... very vulnerable during 
the exchange, but has room to grow afterward.

The latest intensity as measured by aircraft is 130kts and 918mb, a very 
powerful CAT4 storm.  The area of hurricane-force winds is expanding 
too, now extending 75 miles from the center.  The aircraft pressure 
fixes, as well as eye diameters, are plotted at 
http://einstein.atmos.colostate.edu/~mcnoldy/tropics/wilma/Wilma_Recon.png 
current as of Thursday afternoon.  I am generating an auto-updating 
radar loop from Cancun, available at 
http://einstein.atmos.colostate.edu/~mcnoldy/tropics/wilma/Wilma_Radar.gif.  
A new image is added to the loop roughly every 30 minutes, so just 
refresh your browser if it's old.  Mexican radars are sometimes turned 
off at night, so there may not be any current images for several hours 
(hopefully that's not the case tonight).

The forecasts have consistently been too far north and too fast.  It is 
still creeping toward the Cancun/Cozumel area, and should directly hit 
them tomorrow afternoon as a very powerful and large CAT4 or even CAT5 
hurricane.  To make matters worse, the trough responsible for turning 
the storm northward might not be deep enough to whisk Wilma away, 
leaving it to almost stall over the Yucatan peninsula for a couple days.  
Cuba, Cancun, and Cozumel are all evacuating people, and Florida is 
about to start.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the northwest Yucatan peninsula and 
for all of western Cuba.  A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the rest 
of the Yucatan peninsula and Cozumel.  This is a potentially 
catastrophic storm for these resort areas who were already hit hard by 
CAT4 Emily just 3 months ago.  Thankfully, with this slower speed comes 
longer preparation times in Florida.  The southern tip of FL is now 
forecast to be hit Monday morning by a major hurricane, perhaps in the 
same area where Charley hit last year as a CAT4. The Keys are also 
especially vulnerable and in the strike zone.  As coastal residents 
often say... "it's the price we pay for living in paradise".

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

New record low pressure in the Atlantic...

Wilma has very quickly become a storm for the history books.  At 21Z 
yesterday, the winds were 70kts and the MSLP was 970mb.  It then 
intensified at rates never before seen, bottoming out at 882mb early 
this morning, a new record low pressure (beat Gilbert's 888mb in 1988) 
for the Atlantic.  MSLP fell almost 100mb in 24 hours, and over 60mb in 
just 6 hours!  

Since this morning, the central pressure has held steady at 892mb, and 
an eyewall replacement cycle is beginning, which will weaken it a bit, 
but leave room for future strengthening.  You can view a plot of central 
pressures observed by aircraft at 
http://einstein.atmos.colostate.edu/~mcnoldy/tropics/wilma/Wilma_Recon.png 
(it comes with a humor warning).  The environment continues to be 
flawless for it, and the oceanic heat content will actually INCREASE in 
the coming couple of days.  
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/ca.html

At 21Z today, the maximum sustained winds are 140kts and the MSLP is 
892mb -- located at 17.7N 83.7W and tracking WNW at 6kts.  The truly 
remarkable feature is the VERY tiny eye.  The diameter has been as small 
as 2 nautical miles, now at about 5.  This pinhole eye is largely 
responsible for allowing the storm to acquire and maintain such a low 
pressure.

The intensity forecast is basically to remain a CAT4/5 storm as it 
heads toward the Yucatan peninsula.  Cancun and Cozumel are in serious 
danger.  Then if it tracks over land it would obviously weaken quite a 
bit, or if it manages to cross through the Yucatan Channel it would 
weaken only slightly owing to increasing shear and decreasing heat 
content.

However, the track forecast is perplexing.  Model agreement is very 
good in taking it through the Yucatan Channel then recurving into the 
FL peninsula.  However, the northward nudge that has been forecast is 
not happening so far, so how much longer will it resist moving 
northward?  The official forecast does recurve it, making landfall near 
Fort Myers, FL Sunday morning as a major hurricane.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

Wilma becomes a hurricane...

At 15Z today, Wilma was upgraded to the 12th hurricane of the season 
based on aircraft data.  At 21Z, Wilma was located at 16.7N 81.5W (180 
miles south of the Cayman Islands) and tracking WNW at 7kts.  Intensity 
measured by aircraft is 70kts and 970mb, and further strengthening is 
expected, perhaps becoming the 6th major hurricane of the season 
Wednesday evening-ish.  The central pressure has fallen 19mb in the past 
24 hours, and 10mb in the past 6 hours.  All factors point to rapid 
intensification (cold cloudtop persistence, low vertical shear, SSTs in 
the 28.5-29C range, high low-level humidity, large oceanic heat 
content).  Recall that this is the same time of year and same part of 
the Caribbean where Mitch formed and became very intense back in 1998.

The forecast is for continuing to the northwest then a more abrupt turn 
to the northeast in response to a mid-latitude trough moving in, 
threading between Cuba and the Yucatan.  This should steer the storm 
into the western FL peninsula sometime over the weekend, likely as a 
major hurricane (perhaps the Naples area).  The fetch will be large too, 
allowing huge waves (40-60 feet) to travel toward the FL coast on the 
right side of the storm motion.

Hurricane Watches are now in effect for western Cuba, eastern Yucatan 
Peninsula, and Tropical Storm Warnings are in place for the eastern 
portion of the Hinduras coast, and for the Cayman Islands.  You can 
track the storm via radar as it nears Cancun at 
http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/rad-canc.jpg

The NTC as of 21Z today is 202%, in 7th place for all seasons since 1900.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

Update on Atlantic Earliest "N-th" Tropical Storm Stats

From Gary Padgett:

Now with the naming of TS Wilma, the Atlantic has tied its
current record for tropical storms/hurricanes.   Every storm
from Dennis through Wilma, except for Lee (12th) and
Stan (18th) set a new record for earliest date of its rank.

Following is a list of the earliest dates of Atlantic storms
#1 through #21 (not counting subtropical storms).  This
is based upon the current Best Track---things could get
changed in the re-analysis.   For the storm rank in which
2005 storms set a new early record, the previous
record holder is indicated in parentheses following.

Storm #           Earliest Date
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    1                 2 Feb 1952   (See Note)
    2                17 May 1887
    3                12 Jun 1887
    4                 5 Jul 2005 - Dennis      (7 Jul 1959 - Cindy)
    5                12 Jul 2005 - Emily       (23 Jul 1959 - Debra)
    6                22 Jul 2005 - Franklin    (4 Aug 1936)
    7                24 Jul 2005 - Gert         (7 Aug 1936)
    8                 3 Aug 2005 - Harvey     (15 Aug 1936)
    9                 7 Aug 2005 - Irene        (20 Aug 1936)
  10                22 Aug 2005 - Jose        (23 Aug 1995 - Jerry)
  11                24 Aug 2005 - Katrina     (28 Aug 1933)
  12                29 Aug 1995 - Luis
  13                  2 Sep 2005 - Maria       (8 Sep 1933)
  14                  6 Sep 2005 - Nate        (10 Sep 1933)
  15                  7 Sep 2005 - Ophelia    (16 Sep 1933)
  16                18 Sep 2005 - Philippe    (27 Sep 1933)
  17                18 Sep 2005 - Rita          (28 Sep 1933)
  18                  1 Oct 1933
  19                  5 Oct 2005 - Tammy     (25 Oct 1933)
  20                  9 Oct 2005 - Vince        (26 Oct 1933)
  21                 17 Oct 2005 - Wilma      (15 Nov 1933)

Note: Hurricane Alice was named on 2 Jan 1955, but the system originated
in late Dec, 1954, and is now counted as a 1954 storm.   There was a
subtropical storm in Jan, 1978, but this is not counted here.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

TD24 upgraded to TS Wilma...

Over the weekend, TD24 has remained stationary for the most part, with a 
slight southwest drift during Sunday night.  The convection has 
gradually increased and is over the center of circulation.  At 09Z 
today, it was upgraded to the 21st named storm of the season, Wilma, and 
2005 is now tied with 1933 for the highest number of named storms.

At 18Z, Wilma was located at 16.1N 80.0W (halfway between Jamaica and 
Honduras) and creeping southward.  A westward drift is expected to 
commence today.  Intensity estimated by satellite methods is 40kts and 
997mb.  An aircraft will be in the storm later today for a more accurate 
intensity observation.  The ocean under it is plenty warm and deep to 
sustain a strong hurricane, and the forecast reflects that, bringing it 
to nearly CAT3 strength in 5 days.  The track is EXTREMELY uncertain, 
since the steering currents are so weak and erratic right now.  Stay 
tuned to the NHC for the latest track forecasts, but keep in mind that 
the 3-5 day positions are quite uncertain.  The 15Z official forecast 
takes it over the northeast tip if the Yucatan Peninsula in 5 days, then 
entering the Gulf of Mexico as a 95kt hurricane.  ALL Gulf coast 
residents shoudl be watching this very closely, from Mexico to Florida.

As of 15Z, the seasonal NTC stands at 198%, meaning that 2005 so far has 
been about twice as active as a typical entire season.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

TD24 forms in the western Caribbean...

This is far from a sudden development, and in fact, this area has been suspect for almost 10 days now as a long draping tail of clouds and vorticity have persisted from near Nova Scotia down to the western Caribbean in association with a monster mid-latitude upper-Low.  As sometimes happens, the trailing end can wrap up into a discreet vortex, and that's exactly what happened!  So, after much festering, we finally have the 24th Tropical Depression of the season.

At 21Z today, the first advisory was written on TD24 and NHC placed it at 17.6N 78.8W with a motion of W at 2kts.  Intensity is a modest 25kts and 1004mb.  The SSTs under it are 28.5-29C and there's already a well-established anticyclone over it, minimizing wind shear and providing ample exhaust outlets.

Computer models have favored genesis for a while now, and now that it has occurred, they like it even better, bringing it up to a hurricane and even a major hurricane in a few days.  As suggested before, conditions are very favorable for this to happen.  The track will be SLOW, and primarily to the west.  Anyone from Belize to western Cuba should be watching this VERY closely.

If this gets named, its will be Wilma, and we will tie 1933 with the highest number of named storms (21).

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

STD22 and Vince form...

Over the weekend, for a brief period (less than a day), Subtropical 
Depression 22 could be found southeast of Bermuda, racing toward it, 
but being sheared apart as it moved.  It quickly lost tropical 
characteristics and never reached STS or TS status.

Also over the weekend, TS Vince formed in the FAR eastern part of the 
basin, and is now located at 34.9N 14.2W, or just off the coast of 
Morocco (never thought I'd be typing those words!) and heading toward 
Portugal.  Intesity estimates are 40kts and 1002mb.  For 1/2 day, it 
was at minimal hurricane intensity, becoming the season's 11th 
hurricane, based on satellite imagery showing an eye in the storm.  It 
is being sheared now, and moving quickly to the ENE - it should be 
dissipated by the end of the day.

This brings the season's NTC up to 196%, which is tied with the entire 
1916 season, and leaves us behind just six other years since 1900.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

Stan leaves a deadly wake, Tammy forms near Florida...

Stan is now responsible for 66 deaths in Mexico, Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala, Costa Rica, and El Salvador, all due to flooding and landslides.  The center of circulation passed over the high mountains to the west of the Isthmus of Tehuanepec and the remnants are still causing tremendous flooding.  The storm made landfall 24 hours sooner than forecast and seemingly took many people by surprise, although roughly 60,000 did have time to evacuate vulnerable areas throughout Central America.  With some speculation, it looks like the remnants of Stan have crossed into the East Pacific, south of Mexico, and are flaring back up.  If it reforms there, I believe it will be named Pilar.

Shortly after 11Z this morning, NHC upgraded the area of disturbed weather off the Florida coast to TS Tammy, the 19th named storm of the season.  This ties the named storm count from 1995, but is still behind the 1933 count of 21.  As of 15Z, the center of this highly-sheared storm was located at 28.9N 80.3W and tracking N at 12kts.  Intensity estimated from buoys and radar is 35kts and 1004mb.  Only slight strengthening is forecast before landfall somewhere near the FL/GA border late tonight.  For the latest warnings, check http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/143914.shtml?3day and to track the storm via radar, check http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS.p20-r/si.kjax.shtml

Also, there is a VERY impressive blowup of deep convection just east of the Yucatan Peninsula, basically where Stan formed.  One can see a mid-level circulation in the visible satellite imagery as well as healthy outflow aloft.  This has not been mentioned by NHC or picked up by the models, but it bears watching.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

TD19 forms and dissipates, Stan hits Mexico...

Since my last update on 26 Sept, two Depressions have formed, one of 
which became a hurricane.  TD19 was the easternmost formation of the 
season, all the way out at 33W, but was only around for 2 days before 
getting ripped apart by increasing vertical wind shear.  The final 
advisory was written on it on Sunday afternoon.

TD20 formed on Saturday afternoon just east of the Yucatan Peninsula.  
It was upgraded to TS Stan, the 18th named storm of the season, just 
prior to landfall there, and only weakened slightly as it crossed the 
peninsula.  Upon exiting, it very quickly flared back up and became the 
10th hurricane of the season early Tuesday morning.  It traveled quickly 
across the warm Bay of Campeche and made landfall mid-morning on Tuesday 
as a CAT1 storm near Alvarado in the state of Veracruz.

Elsewhere, there is a large and persistant area of disturbed weather 
over the Bahamas.  A 1006mb Low is embedded within the broad 
circulation, but is also in an area of unfavorable wind shear.  Most 
models predict that this shear will lessen, giving the storm a chance 
to organize.  It is forecast to continue tracking WNW across FL and 
enter the Gulf by midday Wednesday.  This will be monitored very closely 
by satellite and eventually by aircraft as the system moves westward 
toward Florida.  If it does develop, the next number/name on deck is 
21/Tammy.

The NTC for the season stands at 189%, the 10th highest value since 
1900, and the season is still going.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.