21 June 2017

Tropical Storm Cindy to make landfall on Louisiana tonight

Since yesterday's update, Tropical Storm Bret dissipated off the coast of central Venezuela, but the system in the Gulf of Mexico was upgraded to Tropical Storm Cindy.  They were both named storms for a 6-hour period, which was the first such pre-July occurrence since 1968.  Cindy, the third named storm of the season, is about 8 weeks ahead of pace for an average season.

Although Cindy became organized and strong enough to earn a name, the big picture has not changed at all.  The structure is not very tropical-looking in appearance, with thunderstorm activity far-removed from the center, and an exposed mostly-dry low-level circulation center. Mild storm surge (1-4 feet) is occurring along the northern Gulf coast, and flooding from heavy rain is the biggest hazard as expected.


As of the Wednesday morning advisory, the center was located about 200 miles southeast of Galveston, and maximum winds are around 60 mph.  However, tropical storm force winds already extend over into coastal Mississippi.


Cindy is bringing tropical storm force winds, storm surge, tornadoes, and of course, LOTS of rain. Already, some impressive rainfall totals have been observed, as you can see in the map below:


I have a very long (and still updating) radar loop of the region available here.

Cindy will make landfall near the TX/LA border late tonight, though the impacts have been and will continue to be felt far east of the center.  After that, land and increasing wind shear will bring this storm to an end, but its remnants will dump rain from TX/LA/MS/AL up through TN and KY over the next couple of days.

There is nothing else in the foreseeable future, but the next name on deck is Don.


20 June 2017

Serious flood risk for northern Gulf Coast from potential tropical storm

Updates on the two storm systems of interest, one in the central Gulf of Mexico (pre-Cindy?) and one in the eastern Caribbean Bret), are available on the Capital Weather Gang blog:

Serious flood risk for northern Gulf Coast from potential tropical storm