06 November 2017

After a one-week hiatus, the tropics have sprung back to life

Not surprisingly, another tropical cyclone has formed in the Atlantic.  Tropical Depression 19 is located in the central Atlantic, far from land; it is centered about 850 miles east of Bermuda and 1400 miles southwest of the Azores.  The Depression is embedded in moderately strong vertical wind shear, as evident in the satellite image below (the thunderstorm activity is displaced east of the low-level circulation center).


It is expected to continue to strengthen to a tropical storm as soon as later today, at which point it will become Tropical Storm Rina, the season's 17th named storm.  While that storm count is well above average for a season, 2010, 2011, and 2012 each had 19 named storms. The official hurricane season ends at the end of the month, but as I mentioned in a previous post, these hyper-active seasons are also more prolific in the late-season and post-season timeframes.

TD19 is forecast to strengthen slightly as it heads off toward the northeast, but then transition to an extratropical cyclone by mid-week.  It *could* contribute just enough ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) to push the 2017 season into 6th place overall, nudging out 2004, but still behind 1933, 2005, 1893, 1926, and 1995.  It will be close.


The name "Rita" was retired after the 2005 season, and replaced with "Rina" (how creative, right?) for the 2011 list. In 2011, Rina became a major hurricane in the western Caribbean in late October, and now, assuming this system does get upgraded, 2017's Rina will innocently come and go, allowing the name to show up again on 2023's list.


31 October 2017

Hurricane season usually winds down in November, but this hasn’t been a normal season

NOAA’s definition of hurricane season spans half the year, from June 1 through November 30. Those dates were chosen to encompass the vast majority of storms and activity, but it doesn’t always catch everything. During these hyper-active seasons, we are nearly four times more likely to get a named storm after Halloween.
More details on the climatological tail end of active seasons is available on the Capital Weather Gang blog: 

Hurricane season usually winds down in November, but this hasn’t been a normal season


27 October 2017

A tropical disturbance is brewing in the Caribbean, will impact South Florida on Saturday

The same tropical disturbance I've been watching for over a week (and the subject of the previous post on Tuesday) is now getting somewhat more organized and will head northward.  The full update is available on the Capital Weather Gang blog:

A tropical disturbance is brewing in the Caribbean, will impact South Florida on Saturday