04 October 2005

TD19 forms and dissipates, Stan hits Mexico...

Since my last update on 26 Sept, two Depressions have formed, one of 
which became a hurricane.  TD19 was the easternmost formation of the 
season, all the way out at 33W, but was only around for 2 days before 
getting ripped apart by increasing vertical wind shear.  The final 
advisory was written on it on Sunday afternoon.

TD20 formed on Saturday afternoon just east of the Yucatan Peninsula.  
It was upgraded to TS Stan, the 18th named storm of the season, just 
prior to landfall there, and only weakened slightly as it crossed the 
peninsula.  Upon exiting, it very quickly flared back up and became the 
10th hurricane of the season early Tuesday morning.  It traveled quickly 
across the warm Bay of Campeche and made landfall mid-morning on Tuesday 
as a CAT1 storm near Alvarado in the state of Veracruz.

Elsewhere, there is a large and persistant area of disturbed weather 
over the Bahamas.  A 1006mb Low is embedded within the broad 
circulation, but is also in an area of unfavorable wind shear.  Most 
models predict that this shear will lessen, giving the storm a chance 
to organize.  It is forecast to continue tracking WNW across FL and 
enter the Gulf by midday Wednesday.  This will be monitored very closely 
by satellite and eventually by aircraft as the system moves westward 
toward Florida.  If it does develop, the next number/name on deck is 

The NTC for the season stands at 189%, the 10th highest value since 
1900, and the season is still going.
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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