tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22936949651904346372024-03-18T08:35:00.565-04:00Tropical Atlantic UpdateBrief summaries of tropical Atlantic activity tailored to the general public, coastal residents, and weather enthusiasts. I have been sending out these updates since 1996, and appreciate everyone's continued interest!Brian McNoldyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04715111761592171629noreply@blogger.comBlogger1154125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2293694965190434637.post-44206874412725301082023-11-27T11:38:00.003-05:002023-11-27T14:51:54.114-05:00Despite El Niño, hurricane season activity ends up well above average<div>This post marks the end of my 28th year writing these updates on tropical Atlantic activity. During that time, I have written approximately 1410 posts spanning 481 tropical cyclones, 212 hurricanes, 97 major hurricanes, and 53 retired storm names. I know some of you reading this have been following along the entire time, but whether you've been reading these posts for 28 days or 28 years, I truly appreciate your continued interest!</div><div><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTGLnK4yIU4zs568dVV8diWfAIjajWIx8Ee3q4ob1M4zPKlL8Ho7xPSio__Qog1mwzfCRc3dCtjXtMK-LHSdTH_gM6fWSPbgg4FRQ4Z3NzZcAoSsPqyRyk76ZiixJx8GXjHMQN2UM9ebp8GSzDLCwt4MldE81Mig2txDb0yAdDI8KizkUQYbJhczNj6ktD/s1875/latestATL.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="991" data-original-width="1875" height="338" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTGLnK4yIU4zs568dVV8diWfAIjajWIx8Ee3q4ob1M4zPKlL8Ho7xPSio__Qog1mwzfCRc3dCtjXtMK-LHSdTH_gM6fWSPbgg4FRQ4Z3NzZcAoSsPqyRyk76ZiixJx8GXjHMQN2UM9ebp8GSzDLCwt4MldE81Mig2txDb0yAdDI8KizkUQYbJhczNj6ktD/w640-h338/latestATL.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Tracks of all tropical and subtropical cyclones during 2023. Each storm's peak intensity, lowest central pressure, and total Accumulated Cyclone Energy is provided in the table on the right.</td></tr></tbody></table><br /><div>The Atlantic hurricane season officially ends on Thursday, and it was a busy one. Heading into the season, we were looking at an odd combination of two significant competing factors: a developing strong El Niño and record-breaking warm ocean temperatures.</div><div><br /></div><div>With a lack of historical analogs from which we could gain insight, it was not obvious if one factor would dominate or if they would essentially balance each other out. It turned out that the super-charged ocean was the dominant influence, and the seasonal activity ended up well above average.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGlWtQKw9DE8dXjnNSKCZGciRPxbBTdqBHvZgNLagUjMCHyBlN8Hbso2zxhrNX1igRdzKHveWVgTy7_saFK_WwzYSoeNdHOQnLt7votmZ_ht7UgkunfPFFWj_5815MxmrRg2BrzhxJHqD9WsA_e0OARhsAxUr__tgLS4tTvMWLmXM8OsUUhKvvTbssZic7/s1780/ace_2023.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1015" data-original-width="1780" height="364" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGlWtQKw9DE8dXjnNSKCZGciRPxbBTdqBHvZgNLagUjMCHyBlN8Hbso2zxhrNX1igRdzKHveWVgTy7_saFK_WwzYSoeNdHOQnLt7votmZ_ht7UgkunfPFFWj_5815MxmrRg2BrzhxJHqD9WsA_e0OARhsAxUr__tgLS4tTvMWLmXM8OsUUhKvvTbssZic7/w640-h364/ace_2023.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>There were 20 tropical storms, 7 of which became hurricanes, and 3 of which became major hurricanes (Category 3+ on the Saffir-Simpson Scale). Using a climatology from 1991-2020, the average numbers of each are 14, 7, and 3. The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) ended up at about 119% of average... essentially identical to the 2008 and 2021 seasons by this metric.</div><div><br /></div><div>Although there was a fairly long gap in activity as we headed into the heart of the season from July 26 to August 19, the Atlantic then had non-stop activity from August 20 through October 6... a remarkable 48 days spanning Emily through Philippe.</div><div><br /></div><div>Next, I'll pick out some of the highlights from the season that stood out to me.</div><div><br /></div><div>Bret and Cindy both formed in mid-June out near 40°W from African easterly waves. That is quite unusual, and not something we would typically see until a couple months later. In fact, having two simultaneous active "main development region" storms in June was unprecedented. It seems to me that the exceptionally-warm ocean and lack of Saharan air layer plumes allowed these early MDR storms to form. [see "<a href="http://bmcnoldy.blogspot.com/2023/06/bret-and-cindy-usher-in-historic-day.html">Bret and Cindy usher in a historic day for the tropical Atlantic</a>"]</div><div><br /></div><div>One of the three major hurricanes this season was Idalia. It formed near the northeastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula and then rapidly intensified to a Category 4 hurricane as it headed for Florida, then made landfall in the Big Bend region as a Category 3 hurricane just four days after it formed. The area had not experienced a major hurricane landfall since 1896. [see "<a href="http://bmcnoldy.blogspot.com/2023/08/idalia-rapidly-intensifies-and-makes.html">Idalia rapidly intensifies and makes landfall, Franklin weakening</a>"]</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiNlUYcORahxr9Rd5FcflplqemCH2QUKoED2y4gzNKElmtOtIbffl24l-kOXyG4kKWi6Yb27tqkupew10I6Zs9rpKl4BzfXN9oym8kbryg232tgfLKt1oIf-NaJTf-0JJeQJIC-qT_4l_mJsdxyKiG1GdaNymof8Rj0Kgag6ZkkVrGcz47aiaTn7e5uxtwn/s1080/Idalia_29-30Aug23_KTLH.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="661" data-original-width="1080" height="392" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiNlUYcORahxr9Rd5FcflplqemCH2QUKoED2y4gzNKElmtOtIbffl24l-kOXyG4kKWi6Yb27tqkupew10I6Zs9rpKl4BzfXN9oym8kbryg232tgfLKt1oIf-NaJTf-0JJeQJIC-qT_4l_mJsdxyKiG1GdaNymof8Rj0Kgag6ZkkVrGcz47aiaTn7e5uxtwn/w640-h392/Idalia_29-30Aug23_KTLH.gif" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>Lee was the season's only Category 5 hurricane, and that intensity was fortunately achieved over the open ocean east of the Leeward Islands. It intensified VERY rapidly... 85 mph in a day... going from a Category 1 hurricane to a Category 5 hurricane. Over the past 50 years in the Atlantic, only about 2.7% of tropical cyclones reach Category 5 intensity, so they are noteworthy.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKTflDxuS2ZA8YwPT60TuCREpvyMiNVyl8-K2f2nGHXLWNvheawRjTI8UudMvyoPzMG7BWtrh6Y9gCxB1Dbq6w-w88IaCAKJrrV_O8KtC8lNkX7OeYXtY4yAbswXLuOgt7ijtFZN2R7WBG5CW2FeqH02yVsMQMWuBu_9gVzOaUhawuhZL5Y385WHrv3j1P/s1016/download.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="600" data-original-width="1016" height="378" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKTflDxuS2ZA8YwPT60TuCREpvyMiNVyl8-K2f2nGHXLWNvheawRjTI8UudMvyoPzMG7BWtrh6Y9gCxB1Dbq6w-w88IaCAKJrrV_O8KtC8lNkX7OeYXtY4yAbswXLuOgt7ijtFZN2R7WBG5CW2FeqH02yVsMQMWuBu_9gVzOaUhawuhZL5Y385WHrv3j1P/w640-h378/download.gif" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>Tropical Storm Philippe, which many of you might not even remember, was a real headache for forecasters. Model guidance was consistently showing a north turn, which it did not make until several days later, and the intensity was curiously steady although the model guidance indicated periods of strengthening and weakening. The average five-day track forecast error for Philippe was 2.4 times the average error at that lead time... pretty brutal.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgczWnKhdM7scu5ZPwFJvgoYA_YFRmRJsErcAYwjt_AONeHuEwVL2t-mg9oH7SMmnMmDWoluenCjwiEsQzrKaXvjHhjBDxWSgLkRckeOi5s3EskPTxi-vbO7ZVc6m3tytG5dNT-7ImccTpp4hiA8FHWHCvt9-aks-sbHJ89r3SNVgGlELe9Q71N37tXonfe/s1440/track_spread_OFCL_al17.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1230" data-original-width="1440" height="546" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgczWnKhdM7scu5ZPwFJvgoYA_YFRmRJsErcAYwjt_AONeHuEwVL2t-mg9oH7SMmnMmDWoluenCjwiEsQzrKaXvjHhjBDxWSgLkRckeOi5s3EskPTxi-vbO7ZVc6m3tytG5dNT-7ImccTpp4hiA8FHWHCvt9-aks-sbHJ89r3SNVgGlELe9Q71N37tXonfe/w640-h546/track_spread_OFCL_al17.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgpEnt81jbgyuQHy2qdyBQ8whWVadvyZxwJS9GvxSH6HH87VfI1tv8Y1_A2dOhWeemx1nIBbS5SINIDUJ6iyb3s0kcf7RllFjZpHeRqhZBFpqy9qEg-L0t3jNtN35Pkwj9no1IBSihPkip_EkmooeG69lmQihBsNGmIf9CCXE0t3dqeVEtMayXN7ipBp_77/s1080/intensity_spread_OFCL_al17.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1080" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgpEnt81jbgyuQHy2qdyBQ8whWVadvyZxwJS9GvxSH6HH87VfI1tv8Y1_A2dOhWeemx1nIBbS5SINIDUJ6iyb3s0kcf7RllFjZpHeRqhZBFpqy9qEg-L0t3jNtN35Pkwj9no1IBSihPkip_EkmooeG69lmQihBsNGmIf9CCXE0t3dqeVEtMayXN7ipBp_77/w640-h426/intensity_spread_OFCL_al17.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div>Remarkably, there were only two hurricane landfalls anywhere in the Atlantic basin all season long: Category 3 Hurricane Idalia in Florida and Category 1 Hurricane Tammy in Barbuda. However, there is another that deserves a mention: Lee made landfall in Nova Scotia in mid-September at Category 1 hurricane intensity, though it had technically transitioned to an extratropical cyclone by then. That's just an academic difference... for practical purposes, it was a hurricane.</div><div><br /></div><div>Another aspect of the season that stands out when you look at the track map at the top of this post is that there were no hurricanes in the Caribbean Sea, and with the exception of Idalia for 1.5 days, no hurricanes anywhere west of 72°W. A weaker-than-normal Azores High helped to allow storms to turn north well before reaching the U.S. or even the Caribbean.</div><div><br /></div><div>The season presented forecast challenges, primarily in track. I singled out Philippe above, but there were other troublesome ones in the mix. The two charts below show the <i>preliminary</i> verification statistics for the 2023 Atlantic season -- track on top then intensity below. At each lead time, the difference between the NHC forecast and the observed value are averaged together to create these. I also include NHC's average errors over the previous five seasons for context (the black dashed line). As you see, the NHC's track forecast errors were higher than their own average at every lead time, but the intensity errors were lower. Progress is not always linear.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjko2PBPKABoOKRFAkw1jPbYgoM95rYFhojBCXqg_ywGafyybFtql1K_FeAU_azV_MnZ3DhDFZsqXQGFx38q9UHziA-aye3hGvmiLKJgtKWcbGR0FK5_KTha1yHQR0W27esSmyJbPSIpsfAagBdM1HhPcOLcwanewt3aUxiDMpshVSiyDk6dVVZTRcuZf8p/s1080/track_verif_2023.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1080" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjko2PBPKABoOKRFAkw1jPbYgoM95rYFhojBCXqg_ywGafyybFtql1K_FeAU_azV_MnZ3DhDFZsqXQGFx38q9UHziA-aye3hGvmiLKJgtKWcbGR0FK5_KTha1yHQR0W27esSmyJbPSIpsfAagBdM1HhPcOLcwanewt3aUxiDMpshVSiyDk6dVVZTRcuZf8p/w640-h426/track_verif_2023.png" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiaREHYjYrTBFzNVdjqrdgQQe6LDHrauM4jdDZxJNWE6sDHYxp5G8tluA9LlPWPwMtc91xlsBd2_pXodbiSv_e1fLqr08EaOLFcc5cSOG3UdVcDG1d4b7OLP6HFXzA03H21VmUKyvux76oFkmdnuYKGBcPIYxqTR8JuZ3quM80cdNHFU6zNZ9w273jBl0ZM/s1080/intensity_verif_2023.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1080" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiaREHYjYrTBFzNVdjqrdgQQe6LDHrauM4jdDZxJNWE6sDHYxp5G8tluA9LlPWPwMtc91xlsBd2_pXodbiSv_e1fLqr08EaOLFcc5cSOG3UdVcDG1d4b7OLP6HFXzA03H21VmUKyvux76oFkmdnuYKGBcPIYxqTR8JuZ3quM80cdNHFU6zNZ9w273jBl0ZM/w640-h426/intensity_verif_2023.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>Looking ahead to next season, the list of names is "List 4" and begins with Alberto, Beryl, and Chris. This is the list that was first used in 1982 and repeated every six years since then. The list has had six names retired from it over the years: Gilbert and Joan in 1988, Keith in 2000, Sandy in 2012, then Florence and Michael in 2018. The 2024 version of the list features two new names: Francine and Milton which replace Florence and Michael.</div><div><br /></div><div><ul><li><a href="https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/atlantic/">Visit the Tropical Atlantic Headquarters.</a></li><li><a href="http://groups.google.com/group/tropatlan/subscribe">Subscribe to get these updates emailed to you.</a></li><li>Follow me on <a href="https://bsky.app/profile/bmcnoldy.bsky.social">Bluesky</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy">X</a></li></ul></div><br />Brian McNoldyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04715111761592171629noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2293694965190434637.post-217868526254446092023-11-01T14:04:00.004-04:002023-11-01T14:06:00.225-04:00Formation chances drop, keeping the Atlantic quiet for a while longer<img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOi7PUOUJbC4uzkUrFbBztIu7AD3oMa1EnslCXLyp8umhCFsGS1R4VilGXEdtWU2mF279x0hWw2ukWSj9NR9NFov6i-b3eGizZzF-DChpD4Tdio3CTWeIan_pJoizoh7UGYvmYuo8XCgrKUt7_8lmZvLPipX3ygTOWQ5h3VC7G-yawUfVGQaUbv7XjvYwh/s1000/frame030.jpg" style="display: none;" />
Of the two disturbances I mentioned in <a href="http://bmcnoldy.blogspot.com/2023/10/monitoring-two-areas-for-formation-in.html">Monday's update</a>, only the one in the Caribbean (Invest 97L) is still of interest. Today it's centered south of Haiti in the central Caribbean Sea and is expected to continue moving westward.<div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEghOr98bFwyC3HQbGHar2k7By7ilQgne4_VCkLvPLRk1gJNuZguhjfideF0CGg3RkQbNWW-79PDPrRpOuW1vrvWFduofV9rzaRXxM2z0CExI5z27_F4cVMQ-1hdapRr1r4pJw1xcN1iyFinMgeaPMuWjtF6d9oJtiLrLZj6Gptnr6cUSBhyIOqV_CinjnRZ/s1000/anim.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="1000" height="512" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEghOr98bFwyC3HQbGHar2k7By7ilQgne4_VCkLvPLRk1gJNuZguhjfideF0CGg3RkQbNWW-79PDPrRpOuW1vrvWFduofV9rzaRXxM2z0CExI5z27_F4cVMQ-1hdapRr1r4pJw1xcN1iyFinMgeaPMuWjtF6d9oJtiLrLZj6Gptnr6cUSBhyIOqV_CinjnRZ/w640-h512/anim.gif" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>The National Hurricane Center is giving it a 20% probability of formation within the next two days and 40% within the next seven days. However, on its current trajectory it will run into central America this weekend.</div><div><br /></div><div>Models have become much less bullish on its development and intensification. The European model ensemble barely finds anything trackable in the Caribbean, and the American model ensemble is generally very weak with just a small handful of stronger outliers. With a much weaker system moving through the Caribbean, it's less likely to turn northward, so the tracks into Nicaragua look more reasonable now.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUKpLGBrQVXup9oLon5150mFD1jJ2oaJ7sEanQ_I-n-gaIe0TJ7K6n0Gs67-Oizc_x8eZr8wg999KKjWaxk7bx4W1157E_jtzzU1kHw8Nq-nOI8Y7nGkto6K8NVVSVUOA7mGtgNFnhODZRJKAu_1_lBVerbrmiYzdODMO7IahPxNMA45dzJetJv9m5S2d3/s768/97L_gefs_latest.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="736" data-original-width="768" height="614" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUKpLGBrQVXup9oLon5150mFD1jJ2oaJ7sEanQ_I-n-gaIe0TJ7K6n0Gs67-Oizc_x8eZr8wg999KKjWaxk7bx4W1157E_jtzzU1kHw8Nq-nOI8Y7nGkto6K8NVVSVUOA7mGtgNFnhODZRJKAu_1_lBVerbrmiYzdODMO7IahPxNMA45dzJetJv9m5S2d3/w640-h614/97L_gefs_latest.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>Strangely, it's not clear WHY this is failing to develop faster. There are not obvious negative environmental factors in its way such as dry air or vertical shear, and the ocean under it is record-breakingly hot. But the ample thunderstorm activity is just not consolidating around a center, so the pressure isn't falling, and the winds aren't increasing. That can change quickly so we still have to be paying close attention, but it's at least off to a slow start. Should this form and become a tropical storm, the next name on the list is Vince.</div><div><br /></div><div>You may recall Hurricanes Eta and Iota in November 2020. Both formed in the central Caribbean, and both made landfall as Category 4 hurricanes in Nicaragua just two weeks apart and a few miles apart. Their tracks are shown below for reference, <i>and as of now, there is absolutely no indication that this current system will intensify like they did</i>. But it's good to be reminded of what CAN happen in the western Caribbean in November and to watch things closely.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNrtKK8p_IoSpPIkipSVs78UrTRBNaGydLgTV4P4EzUmCTKgYmg-1zNEhNd9JbEO9mDy9H1Gt_Uk_9yhhxafAh_acOrLrQB9u1WqwR4C31-Ynu1WIEbdN_ciW0vmumTxRf7BAsG2rywwx-lgkKHTJ43ftBk17F6MOfA_E67BPPjOQ4OjNBvzver-4prL_l/s1168/Untitled.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="454" data-original-width="1168" height="248" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNrtKK8p_IoSpPIkipSVs78UrTRBNaGydLgTV4P4EzUmCTKgYmg-1zNEhNd9JbEO9mDy9H1Gt_Uk_9yhhxafAh_acOrLrQB9u1WqwR4C31-Ynu1WIEbdN_ciW0vmumTxRf7BAsG2rywwx-lgkKHTJ43ftBk17F6MOfA_E67BPPjOQ4OjNBvzver-4prL_l/w640-h248/Untitled.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>I will not have an opportunity to write another update until the 13th, so please keep an eye on <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/">NHC's website</a> for the latest on any potential and active storms.</div><div><br />
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<br /></div>Brian McNoldyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04715111761592171629noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2293694965190434637.post-60007891374590553052023-10-30T13:43:00.000-04:002023-10-30T13:43:46.932-04:00Monitoring two areas for formation in the coming week<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7igM1f40qygnurFIWdn67D9RkHrwe1wn4NLnSiczS-N7wwy6avXpM5LKlRKx22UODGEqd-WaDOEKqfB06agntN4EeLHP6Lb01m2Rd4GPHd0_F9ZF9kNB6jvuiu1IH26dxtEdOghQe8TSKUIA9G3Xgg6NWKkAVTcxCfBqR5hBT_85K_DvtMwrz8ZbP3pgH/s2342/summary_north_atlantic.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1529" data-original-width="2342" height="418" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7igM1f40qygnurFIWdn67D9RkHrwe1wn4NLnSiczS-N7wwy6avXpM5LKlRKx22UODGEqd-WaDOEKqfB06agntN4EeLHP6Lb01m2Rd4GPHd0_F9ZF9kNB6jvuiu1IH26dxtEdOghQe8TSKUIA9G3Xgg6NWKkAVTcxCfBqR5hBT_85K_DvtMwrz8ZbP3pgH/w640-h418/summary_north_atlantic.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>There are two areas of interest in the Atlantic that could become tropical cyclones in the coming week. The first is near the northern Bahamas and the second is just south of Puerto Rico. The one near the Bahamas (Invest 96L) has a hostile environment ahead of it, but the one in the eastern Caribbean (should soon be tagged as Invest 97L) is one to keep a close eye on. The next -- and final -- two names on this year's regular list are Vince and Whitney. </div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgtVa7aNqkoMieOIbP944LnnbskFxZ__mfKWdsvzRFQfgkXGEX47v-rkYGM17pH9Rv2cYoEyXym-3OQ54j8_hjhc8Q1n3kIJXgnUnl2976bZcw1BLLPGBV3MlavZ_nErL3PqiOUeQkk8923YzyjmXoO9HwchZTRtXmcZZjh8sTsRwJN603qJL7s3FPPrQ6W/s1050/34542026.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="780" data-original-width="1050" height="476" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgtVa7aNqkoMieOIbP944LnnbskFxZ__mfKWdsvzRFQfgkXGEX47v-rkYGM17pH9Rv2cYoEyXym-3OQ54j8_hjhc8Q1n3kIJXgnUnl2976bZcw1BLLPGBV3MlavZ_nErL3PqiOUeQkk8923YzyjmXoO9HwchZTRtXmcZZjh8sTsRwJN603qJL7s3FPPrQ6W/w640-h476/34542026.gif" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>The discussion of Invest 96L will be very brief. It's already encountering drier air and stronger vertical wind shear and both are expected to only become less favorable for development in the coming days. Model guidance is in good agreement on it remaining very weak... either never form or perhaps briefly become a low-end tropical storm. It will zip off to the northeast away from land and dissipate.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjr6cwhF9J1fR2z-8pzlbkNEyDG5DBVgn2nUZpErEI19IYT0gMc61zVG-gPSX7mVAKzOvx86mvx79RZ1iXxcJNuH27n9LA8YSUKzHG8A_hw3vCewd9BU1IVe8WMTIG713qvTjmxDSI1mw8xG0ytd0NHM5Fmt1KWGYj2OMhx7_6Wh39UEiOkUlaFYqkUPzgg/s801/96L_tracks_latest.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="801" data-original-width="768" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjr6cwhF9J1fR2z-8pzlbkNEyDG5DBVgn2nUZpErEI19IYT0gMc61zVG-gPSX7mVAKzOvx86mvx79RZ1iXxcJNuH27n9LA8YSUKzHG8A_hw3vCewd9BU1IVe8WMTIG713qvTjmxDSI1mw8xG0ytd0NHM5Fmt1KWGYj2OMhx7_6Wh39UEiOkUlaFYqkUPzgg/w614-h640/96L_tracks_latest.png" width="614" /></a></div><br /><div>The feature in the eastern Caribbean is very poorly defined right now, but should gradually consolidate in the next couple of days. There's a large difference between how the American and European model ensembles handle its future. This first animation is a 10-day forecast from the American model's ensemble system. The swarm of low pressures starts appearing on Wednesday and they track westward across the Caribbean. The majority run into central America and subsequently dissipate, and about six of the members turn north and hit Cuba as a hurricane. After Cuba, the Bahamas or even south Florida would be potential areas of concern. The timing of the potential encounter in south Florida would be next Tuesday-Wednesday, but there is a LOT of uncertainty in this right now.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjB0AwfII7bIXxqhX1p_YKi2xhU3bzloivrFce-Faj46RNpLuRGe20qPjyGhMHCO1icnEZPgxFUn_GmeAsABqNjoaqD9O5ymGvMdOUPsVy51PTgskxLRA4_jVIwPTIo6vJ2LP1OVrrkzhI1PBD2NnGkXErek_dkIKaFo2MWJOXnDRXpOcVqTyXlxFfkBTtw/s1050/82642059.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="738" data-original-width="1050" height="450" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjB0AwfII7bIXxqhX1p_YKi2xhU3bzloivrFce-Faj46RNpLuRGe20qPjyGhMHCO1icnEZPgxFUn_GmeAsABqNjoaqD9O5ymGvMdOUPsVy51PTgskxLRA4_jVIwPTIo6vJ2LP1OVrrkzhI1PBD2NnGkXErek_dkIKaFo2MWJOXnDRXpOcVqTyXlxFfkBTtw/w640-h450/82642059.gif" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>Switching over to the same animation from the European model ensemble, very few of the members do anything with it, and the ones that do are decidedly weaker than in the American ensemble.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBHi8rmugFbP5H_r4o0loyOkTjMXRtV5w3NwcnyRg5MghVNu50qURdid2KHA_BAKlvSLfdfVpKZe_kr3DxChPfvfO0Nc2XhXcVvmnF-DHw4w-qRyfwSTinY-7MgJziuJwC-v-BiTQcHHbaIzTiveDPTw7r9NYpop0OmV7xnuAkSuVQR6SeQeh8aKrjfKMm/s1050/69242347.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="738" data-original-width="1050" height="450" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBHi8rmugFbP5H_r4o0loyOkTjMXRtV5w3NwcnyRg5MghVNu50qURdid2KHA_BAKlvSLfdfVpKZe_kr3DxChPfvfO0Nc2XhXcVvmnF-DHw4w-qRyfwSTinY-7MgJziuJwC-v-BiTQcHHbaIzTiveDPTw7r9NYpop0OmV7xnuAkSuVQR6SeQeh8aKrjfKMm/w640-h450/69242347.gif" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>But one thing is for certain: the Caribbean Sea is still extremely warm (1-2°C warmer than average for the date) and that warm water is deep, resulting in huge values of ocean heat content. These factors will give a nudge to development and intensification, and be able to sustain a storm of any intensity.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgDGXklYnSv5xhORR9WY2p3VuedWpXPfjJGoenX765MnBq2-Utsk2azcan8WLzikoxN7PRxpq8Fnx6KRe-byrs1xsG_qO5vxyegfDSdfpbJ0OF2x0coTkx8xvoK3QXcP4wCmIIx1GgNonUGpgc034czpAsHNMREm4puSTZPKbDAp4zLuFL5ieNbsHUF0rOR/s902/anim.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="601" data-original-width="902" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgDGXklYnSv5xhORR9WY2p3VuedWpXPfjJGoenX765MnBq2-Utsk2azcan8WLzikoxN7PRxpq8Fnx6KRe-byrs1xsG_qO5vxyegfDSdfpbJ0OF2x0coTkx8xvoK3QXcP4wCmIIx1GgNonUGpgc034czpAsHNMREm4puSTZPKbDAp4zLuFL5ieNbsHUF0rOR/w640-h426/anim.gif" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>Without a named storm out there, the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) is no longer accruing, and as of today, the 2023 tally is about 126% of average for the date. But, as described in this post, we probably aren't done for the year yet. Hurricane season officially ends on November 30.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhW2eWa0ZxgvqcquQMMozcr8BR5XCeJItGQmLw9XyaKERanGgBR5UFV9eXAa5D8dUzdN36l7x89ggmr6xGrZk3iQdyjZqUeJz79IIYZt-fGBOLU4gf4anXYMseCH2BNDIzjoQwtFJSuwiVnRLzXTQGfHLDH_dBXW-HAKqWjwmu7qi1BsT2bON8GHYlQ-LuZ/s1780/ace_oct30.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1015" data-original-width="1780" height="364" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhW2eWa0ZxgvqcquQMMozcr8BR5XCeJItGQmLw9XyaKERanGgBR5UFV9eXAa5D8dUzdN36l7x89ggmr6xGrZk3iQdyjZqUeJz79IIYZt-fGBOLU4gf4anXYMseCH2BNDIzjoQwtFJSuwiVnRLzXTQGfHLDH_dBXW-HAKqWjwmu7qi1BsT2bON8GHYlQ-LuZ/w640-h364/ace_oct30.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>Historically, the 2023 season sits rather high in the ranking for the date (in the top 12%):</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgiMQxdzNT9Dm2h38DW50IvCIcM1h73Q_KPLQX_MlanrXUqiwPNX3v7gsF01qCjs0ynn20We6JgycilsRWM1hhw6GfK5O1_-fUIxxIIt6nqraicqxHL4Z3V4E78e5VeaPCPeRaS3eqXNpifg1nBhzf91WMxfdSFcju7qdadR2sk49LMDtJJawlrLa7QppOr/s1680/timeseries_ace_30Oct.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1122" data-original-width="1680" height="428" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgiMQxdzNT9Dm2h38DW50IvCIcM1h73Q_KPLQX_MlanrXUqiwPNX3v7gsF01qCjs0ynn20We6JgycilsRWM1hhw6GfK5O1_-fUIxxIIt6nqraicqxHL4Z3V4E78e5VeaPCPeRaS3eqXNpifg1nBhzf91WMxfdSFcju7qdadR2sk49LMDtJJawlrLa7QppOr/w640-h428/timeseries_ace_30Oct.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><br />
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<br />Brian McNoldyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04715111761592171629noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2293694965190434637.post-48824977297926699412023-10-23T11:49:00.005-04:002023-10-23T11:57:01.929-04:00Hurricane Tammy's very uncertain future could involve Florida<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg37bI1wYmaLFuftxjhuHwy-X_5SUQeogl5cB8uF269UtHsHxI3Sf6SuTFl3mMBeeqvEeU-3UCC_ItTA3wlRsiNp99Sd9kz11xMMZTjU46-Cir09onjv8GYbkrD8YFSru5SN6w9bjz7hOP5FgxwjQo6Qs33m8VtBX5hU8BtTTcu2VsZjmGE0GOwP7IpTVTk/s1050/latestATL%20(1).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="600" data-original-width="1050" height="366" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg37bI1wYmaLFuftxjhuHwy-X_5SUQeogl5cB8uF269UtHsHxI3Sf6SuTFl3mMBeeqvEeU-3UCC_ItTA3wlRsiNp99Sd9kz11xMMZTjU46-Cir09onjv8GYbkrD8YFSru5SN6w9bjz7hOP5FgxwjQo6Qs33m8VtBX5hU8BtTTcu2VsZjmGE0GOwP7IpTVTk/w640-h366/latestATL%20(1).png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>Since my previous <a href="https://bmcnoldy.blogspot.com/2023/10/tammy-forms-and-triggers-watches.html">post on Thursday</a>, Tammy reached Category 1 hurricane intensity prior to its approach to the Leeward Islands, but the eyewall passed just barely to the east of the islands. It has been tracking northwest -> north since then, and unfortunately, that enormous uncertainty in the track forecast I pointed out on Thursday has not gotten any closer to being reduced.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJwufQY4na9yg1iUMyxax1xxACdaWDhsnOHYVRzLLrWvYfHWGUy66KZEjeg7MFJZJJ-pu6429Iy5fT06kDDpk0WP41tYH-3h26r5MjaPAW2cjxGOC1lkou9tH0ywn6MeLi8LTqAPePh_Au3-QNmXdf0krO77s1fRSgQ-sZBTDCZdMRaavgvzfHeAUf_eE5/s1000/floater_floater_AL202023_band02_24fr_20231023-1116.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1000" data-original-width="1000" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJwufQY4na9yg1iUMyxax1xxACdaWDhsnOHYVRzLLrWvYfHWGUy66KZEjeg7MFJZJJ-pu6429Iy5fT06kDDpk0WP41tYH-3h26r5MjaPAW2cjxGOC1lkou9tH0ywn6MeLi8LTqAPePh_Au3-QNmXdf0krO77s1fRSgQ-sZBTDCZdMRaavgvzfHeAUf_eE5/w640-h640/floater_floater_AL202023_band02_24fr_20231023-1116.gif" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>As of Monday morning, Tammy is a Category 1 hurricane centered about 250 miles north of the Virgin Islands and it's moving north at 7 mph. But by mid-week, models diverge significantly on the track forecast. Among global model ensemble members, roughly half bring Tammy west toward Florida and the other half stall or go east into the open Atlantic. But the greatest "track density" (shown below) is near south Florida on the 29th.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhd89HekKNIoHbSA9Pw02cGnHmX2N9h9gYWPCobqIV0efRkxSMiukssqp3GG5R0D69SNe4CFKjMKgJ-izcFoMuujn8CeH9SeVqr0_qdXpToxCfgN8IFrWz1P36igHaCA_-NpycZ2E5ZEqgJYIK1XAyBh5IA45oZO-yjULF7hxWxw1Qspw4n4kBgi_NJJHUl/s1750/ae08e118-c807-43de-8a09-6e804e5cc4dc.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1125" data-original-width="1750" height="412" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhd89HekKNIoHbSA9Pw02cGnHmX2N9h9gYWPCobqIV0efRkxSMiukssqp3GG5R0D69SNe4CFKjMKgJ-izcFoMuujn8CeH9SeVqr0_qdXpToxCfgN8IFrWz1P36igHaCA_-NpycZ2E5ZEqgJYIK1XAyBh5IA45oZO-yjULF7hxWxw1Qspw4n4kBgi_NJJHUl/w640-h412/ae08e118-c807-43de-8a09-6e804e5cc4dc.gif" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>For the batch that reaches Florida, the timing as of now looks to be as early as Friday and as late as Sunday, with most making the closest approach on Saturday the 29th. It's worth pointing out that there is a full moon on the 28th, so water levels could create tidal flooding problems around every high tide for the few days surrounding that... even without help from Tammy. </div><div><br /></div><div>Although it's still a long way out, the intensity guidance ranges from a very weak remnant to a Category 1 hurricane, so a tropical storm seems like a reasonable best guess for now if it makes the west turn. If it goes east, it has a chance at becoming a stronger hurricane. Most models show a fairly hostile environment if it goes west, so the odds of Tammy still being a hurricane by the weekend are pretty slim.</div><div><br /></div><div>The official forecast from NHC drops it to tropical storm intensity by Thursday, and their track forecast is a compromise between the west and east scenarios, with a slight lean to the western ones. If one scenario starts to dominate in the model guidance, their track forecast will reflect that.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7_nwOej-Y3PjWy7LWi4gN1NQcL45f0L2lUBcFVzINXkm6UookeOzdvLtRhzWKHGIRiCQ6uG6mmNhb6Of2cTn4GHBB_BWqs87jGrYvk9ou2sGMCXbXqF_18Xku4lLxSPfkzhAGDNOSoVaYZ7jL8JmcfQ5MGPjtDZDXhaAiYL0ulTVJKJB4IYuMQbanPycp/s897/144759_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="736" data-original-width="897" height="526" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7_nwOej-Y3PjWy7LWi4gN1NQcL45f0L2lUBcFVzINXkm6UookeOzdvLtRhzWKHGIRiCQ6uG6mmNhb6Of2cTn4GHBB_BWqs87jGrYvk9ou2sGMCXbXqF_18Xku4lLxSPfkzhAGDNOSoVaYZ7jL8JmcfQ5MGPjtDZDXhaAiYL0ulTVJKJB4IYuMQbanPycp/w640-h526/144759_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>Elsewhere, Invest 95L is a disturbance brewing in the far western Caribbean... about to move inland over Nicaragua. It appears to be very close to becoming a tropical cyclone, and if it reaches tropical storm intensity, the next name on the list is Vince. Otherwise, it will cross Nicaragua and could become a tropical cyclone in the East Pacific.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhgLhXOOsVEpyEXWS-PEqSmz3UtUUqyPlW78MtLRU3_yyLgppJBGGMy7Po4M-8IgV563tb8UMiNx_EZrqJcxeD6tkYCd3gtO2kLxUp4cf8yuH5Mtw8S4QVkJxSos45OGvCxmQEybvQM7nS3z8ZDQcZr7c6eRCNhCdBUc67yq8hoaTcZUBoC-FlluNrKOS1K/s1050/67771252.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1050" height="438" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhgLhXOOsVEpyEXWS-PEqSmz3UtUUqyPlW78MtLRU3_yyLgppJBGGMy7Po4M-8IgV563tb8UMiNx_EZrqJcxeD6tkYCd3gtO2kLxUp4cf8yuH5Mtw8S4QVkJxSos45OGvCxmQEybvQM7nS3z8ZDQcZr7c6eRCNhCdBUc67yq8hoaTcZUBoC-FlluNrKOS1K/w640-h438/67771252.gif" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>Looking at the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) through today, it's about 125% of average for the date and climbing higher above climatology each day while Tammy is around.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgbL4mPkM1Fk8Dt_Af2m9x2zgcI2F1pnFJn1SpCJcPA7ZI2u7jMTF-CZGiC9ZUNo1aj3GHFVBQIJlWjhyPbLqyRMam4m8Ikc1cvw7WEeS4hvYC_THsL4_rf8syb-JwKyJocoOaSA_MDrKmz1aQRIBSzNhJdLRKfAb9g-T5zZQh-j7MTXNy1tZCz301NPalz/s1780/ace_oct23.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1015" data-original-width="1780" height="364" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgbL4mPkM1Fk8Dt_Af2m9x2zgcI2F1pnFJn1SpCJcPA7ZI2u7jMTF-CZGiC9ZUNo1aj3GHFVBQIJlWjhyPbLqyRMam4m8Ikc1cvw7WEeS4hvYC_THsL4_rf8syb-JwKyJocoOaSA_MDrKmz1aQRIBSzNhJdLRKfAb9g-T5zZQh-j7MTXNy1tZCz301NPalz/w640-h364/ace_oct23.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>
<ul>
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<br /></div>Brian McNoldyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04715111761592171629noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2293694965190434637.post-18178774788615982152023-10-19T11:54:00.000-04:002023-10-19T11:54:11.145-04:00Tammy forms and triggers watches & warnings in Leeward Islands<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhLyNa_ndh7eIGn2JqHZuzIXmBtopGHLTH0uwtPfb4vZbnyJcibdqa9Q_8sva6c2Qm7FcUI3kCVNVuFXaezy1iXu_SGR95wgbeYYdlnPRvMBiwdTQ9ma2yHayuo2WXIIL05K7j9gg2jXv4rpRBhpDFe67kKHzVqPb2gmVR6oR4hWs25ycW4U1Sh8JduyIiL/s897/145301_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="736" data-original-width="897" height="526" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhLyNa_ndh7eIGn2JqHZuzIXmBtopGHLTH0uwtPfb4vZbnyJcibdqa9Q_8sva6c2Qm7FcUI3kCVNVuFXaezy1iXu_SGR95wgbeYYdlnPRvMBiwdTQ9ma2yHayuo2WXIIL05K7j9gg2jXv4rpRBhpDFe67kKHzVqPb2gmVR6oR4hWs25ycW4U1Sh8JduyIiL/w640-h526/145301_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>Invest 94L was upgraded to Tropical Storm Tammy on Wednesday afternoon; Tammy is the 20th named storm of this very active season. It is forecast to become the season's 7th hurricane on Saturday as it passes over or very near the Leeward Islands.</div><div><br /></div><div>As of Thursday morning, a tropical storm watch covers islands from Barbados up through Anguilla; the tropical storm warning and hurricane watch are for Guadeloupe. These will definitely evolve, so stay tuned to <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?start#contents">NHC</a> for the latest. [<a href="https://www.google.com/maps/@16.2576167,-61.6844835,7.25z?entry=ttu">link to map</a> for a refresher on the names of the islands in the Lesser Antilles]</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNKZfFp5A5xeg7aJ4yfhQhgq4I8R1SmbPlGKFfM588PVlTKNddk_p74s7AwFeZxgKGQXz7YNqy1wGtzkBI5fG7SbO9JKT-P1ouQvVZDnrbh1nD5CT-t0aLB_aBxQd997IoQu16RzSF7-PKNom5GQYq2wj4etzRiZkEq9hYoGsMozSGNuPtPVCVgdXlOgN-/s1016/download.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="607" data-original-width="1016" height="382" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNKZfFp5A5xeg7aJ4yfhQhgq4I8R1SmbPlGKFfM588PVlTKNddk_p74s7AwFeZxgKGQXz7YNqy1wGtzkBI5fG7SbO9JKT-P1ouQvVZDnrbh1nD5CT-t0aLB_aBxQd997IoQu16RzSF7-PKNom5GQYq2wj4etzRiZkEq9hYoGsMozSGNuPtPVCVgdXlOgN-/w640-h382/download.gif" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>A useful product from NHC is the arrival time of tropical storm winds, overlaid on the probability of those winds occurring. This too is updated every six hours, so check back on the NHC website.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhfE02Xr1E0w8YNwsi0j0uSYD31M4JMpwZoc6brQCa8i5kYGnCzsgG4ybkajBNAYm4Krrbzx0qil_YjF-NMuWFYMNHovZKRE1Q1x2BaMJ_WLk8RXoZZVb8R6HB8VqyGuTbyCdco2pIx2PXJNjs2MaKuxUI5lbm2thjZXMEDfwOHrOXp8BE3iISXa4elLQv2/s897/145301_most_likely_toa_34.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="736" data-original-width="897" height="526" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhfE02Xr1E0w8YNwsi0j0uSYD31M4JMpwZoc6brQCa8i5kYGnCzsgG4ybkajBNAYm4Krrbzx0qil_YjF-NMuWFYMNHovZKRE1Q1x2BaMJ_WLk8RXoZZVb8R6HB8VqyGuTbyCdco2pIx2PXJNjs2MaKuxUI5lbm2thjZXMEDfwOHrOXp8BE3iISXa4elLQv2/w640-h526/145301_most_likely_toa_34.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div>The last hurricanes to pass over these islands were Maria and Irma in 2017... <i>both</i> at Category 5 intensity and only two weeks apart. Thankfully, this time won't be anything remotely like that. Intensity guidance from the models is in the tropical storm and Category 1 hurricane range when Tammy is crossing over the Leeward Islands. <div><br /></div><div>Beyond the weekend, models are in absolutely no agreement on where Tammy will go. In one week, the ensemble spread of track forecasts from the global models spans from Haiti to Ireland and everywhere in between. So, best to just focus on 3-day forecasts for now until there's more consensus.<br /><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmABxb8kCrBrLDJ4YmZFHBromHiEEdzTFWhiwqhhKCkRzsNoV7ltQ5Xc4I9dqbdzjcY-DHF8KuyTKuPSihKqGdfWfdhX60NQleQZwU8BgS9FO3tRzt10Bzz11jb_V6u6O1_LZOlhtyFhMdVhJjoyxyqh160eiQVf38yzRfTouEmnmWptGcxvzqKFU4WoeQ/s1750/f168.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1125" data-original-width="1750" height="412" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmABxb8kCrBrLDJ4YmZFHBromHiEEdzTFWhiwqhhKCkRzsNoV7ltQ5Xc4I9dqbdzjcY-DHF8KuyTKuPSihKqGdfWfdhX60NQleQZwU8BgS9FO3tRzt10Bzz11jb_V6u6O1_LZOlhtyFhMdVhJjoyxyqh160eiQVf38yzRfTouEmnmWptGcxvzqKFU4WoeQ/w640-h412/f168.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>
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<br /></div></div>Brian McNoldyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04715111761592171629noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2293694965190434637.post-28383993544072617022023-10-17T13:46:00.002-04:002023-10-17T13:46:55.133-04:00Threat increasing for Leeward Islands this weekendThe easterly wave that was near Cabo Verde that I mentioned in my post <a href="https://bmcnoldy.blogspot.com/2023/10/cabo-verde-season-isnt-over-yet.html">last Wednesday</a> has been creeping toward the Lesser Antilles and is now close to becoming a tropical cyclone. It would be Tropical Depression 20 or Tropical Storm Tammy when the time comes. The National Hurricane Center is giving this a 70% probability of becoming a tropical cyclone within 2 days and 80% within 7 days. <div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhaUaRBEi-QMq9rYOiRgoS2llOeRvlPFz7n27CLI5MZz4OXMdcsCpwYGvTOP2PEAWhIaH79wdFlUsS9yvTWt3QoKyrdZdhPXHmiakzYN1x5S_GPgb2ASrsY7IAEa7zi3Pm_TiU8Gg1MIqsDcdP0pIOlGvSBA7KwVRU0Z3uadicqAEfGO44Zf8VXydGQZtX5/s1050/GOES16_1km_vis_202310171655_1.75_23.25_-67.25_-28.50_vis1_hgwy_warn_weathernerds.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="699" data-original-width="1050" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhaUaRBEi-QMq9rYOiRgoS2llOeRvlPFz7n27CLI5MZz4OXMdcsCpwYGvTOP2PEAWhIaH79wdFlUsS9yvTWt3QoKyrdZdhPXHmiakzYN1x5S_GPgb2ASrsY7IAEa7zi3Pm_TiU8Gg1MIqsDcdP0pIOlGvSBA7KwVRU0Z3uadicqAEfGO44Zf8VXydGQZtX5/w640-h426/GOES16_1km_vis_202310171655_1.75_23.25_-67.25_-28.50_vis1_hgwy_warn_weathernerds.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>The disturbance, tagged as Invest 94L, is located about 1200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles and could reach the northern islands (the Leewards) on Saturday, potentially as a hurricane. Model guidance is still quite split on the future of this, ranging from barely a tropical storm to a Category 4 hurricane. Although not plotted on the map of deterministic models below, the European model barely develops this beyond an open wave... not even a depression. Although the ocean temperature ahead of it is plenty warm for development, there is some drier air and higher vertical wind shear in the coming days, and the models handle that differently.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhxBYZJYuuP-zGsQN8S2FUU-gVTMgo5Khde99zTKz_trhmBNU-rYRJ1QWYNpzV4mih6QDA7ENWpcg8TKr9aCZPOMrPHwAfEJm73bTinfk-ZL_m5vx-SZHTT1tyNHGLlXWj_JDYumqLTK1SKlaRyZ3nF70WDMnkqb8o8y7L9eVaM22MeamIHXH8INrMZOR3C/s1422/94L_tracks_latest.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="600" data-original-width="1422" height="270" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhxBYZJYuuP-zGsQN8S2FUU-gVTMgo5Khde99zTKz_trhmBNU-rYRJ1QWYNpzV4mih6QDA7ENWpcg8TKr9aCZPOMrPHwAfEJm73bTinfk-ZL_m5vx-SZHTT1tyNHGLlXWj_JDYumqLTK1SKlaRyZ3nF70WDMnkqb8o8y7L9eVaM22MeamIHXH8INrMZOR3C/w640-h270/94L_tracks_latest.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>Looking at the ensembles, I have the American and European model ensembles below. The American model is decidedly more aggressive with the intensity forecast (the scale is central pressure, so lower values are stronger), which makes the storm more likely to follow the north end of the spread... while the European is generally weaker, which makes the storm more likely to follow the south end of the spread and hit the Leeward Islands.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEie8lkRd_663G4M2NywDM33V8xsKW-F_7sqy2w3MPKau74T97JXm_5zMY-au5A2D4jmH2Ibq0lPw3eklPJukO75IIy_OilkVYN9LD3nk_Wc3aWfmyVwiCGW8zeAuxfTRKc8Axeab2RqoSIBNsaG1wgsfjcSQKF3-CnzZaa0OCQEDSHIE-zxzQHJL6FDTjwF/s2250/f132_gefs.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2250" data-original-width="1750" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEie8lkRd_663G4M2NywDM33V8xsKW-F_7sqy2w3MPKau74T97JXm_5zMY-au5A2D4jmH2Ibq0lPw3eklPJukO75IIy_OilkVYN9LD3nk_Wc3aWfmyVwiCGW8zeAuxfTRKc8Axeab2RqoSIBNsaG1wgsfjcSQKF3-CnzZaa0OCQEDSHIE-zxzQHJL6FDTjwF/w498-h640/f132_gefs.png" width="498" /></a></div><br /><div>Given the significant uncertainty in the intensity forecasts and the system being just four days away from the Leeward Islands, residents and tourists on those islands need to be watching this very closely and be prepared to take action if the forecasts start to solidify around the stronger scenarios.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>The map below shows the tracks of the 19 storms so far this year. Next to the names are the storms' peak intensity, minimum central pressure, and Accumulated Cyclone Energy. Recall there are only 21 names on the regular list; the remaining ones are Tammy, Vince, and Whitney. If the regular list gets exhausted, the supplemental list kicks in, and the first three names on that are Adria, Braylen, and Caridad.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-zMpKZgzVLi-UiKx6UspF0dpczCOjMya5nWzp86x80wFIygwYZiVQ11KeUP_J9AZzipvPLmm_B5UvmwARJ5aIBwPcBYHTC4Hbgodk5RcjiMSkI_UN8E-_ogYTr9whho72kacQfIqMie-ge4b9Rz6cNfRXFUQeFneTIfZQRbqhuuN63epQmH7OGh0aeovd/s1875/latestATL.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1004" data-original-width="1875" height="342" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-zMpKZgzVLi-UiKx6UspF0dpczCOjMya5nWzp86x80wFIygwYZiVQ11KeUP_J9AZzipvPLmm_B5UvmwARJ5aIBwPcBYHTC4Hbgodk5RcjiMSkI_UN8E-_ogYTr9whho72kacQfIqMie-ge4b9Rz6cNfRXFUQeFneTIfZQRbqhuuN63epQmH7OGh0aeovd/w640-h342/latestATL.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>
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<br /></div>Brian McNoldyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04715111761592171629noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2293694965190434637.post-2342591977786972672023-10-11T08:28:00.000-04:002023-10-11T08:28:02.234-04:00Cabo Verde season isn't over yet... watching Tropical Storm Sean and a second disturbance<img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMxuYxfws8J2OpYDyFPQYH9P1uaQfLGDCBEbYBg3OlZ5yvEJZmhYH-j3o18NTbPkFb5WL8r4LAbSRphsIZVmDmaYC-i-5BxEwig3_GwRrXRj1r1b-lC4hBjNPQYR7vg1uRGZCuItyIevZ5cfnPnvA9SgKuRC5qiq6fH90gmOaZeUS0J5w8eaRtacFzMsQ5/s1396/ssta.png" style="display: none;" />
<div>"Cabo Verde season" is the portion of Atlantic hurricane season that refers to when easterly waves trek across Africa and emerge over the Atlantic Ocean near Cabo Verde... and a small percentage of them go on to become long-lived hurricanes. The vast majority of the most infamous hurricanes are of Cabo Verde pedigree. This season doesn't have exact bounds, but is generally mid-August through early October. The large-scale environment tends to be too hostile for those easterly waves to develop before and after that timeframe. So, the point of this introduction is that it's getting to be rather late to be watching one let alone <i>two</i> systems out there!</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgu8UUHYffh3aVqQ1108T7hvKIJdVjimMOP1tBEgw6UJREnQtv_tKtXptYRamnNudgCfytfqWnJ4RyZWdXoNZ4aXGlxYxTxEBx2NXQ-m8CWk410trHLZtSUfVbb1_A71WNe7BTyXba_wofj1APl3oWoUuhxwqw_3dFMTY1POx7O9E2HPPKRbZIaYVYqLuWP/s979/download.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="545" data-original-width="979" height="356" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgu8UUHYffh3aVqQ1108T7hvKIJdVjimMOP1tBEgw6UJREnQtv_tKtXptYRamnNudgCfytfqWnJ4RyZWdXoNZ4aXGlxYxTxEBx2NXQ-m8CWk410trHLZtSUfVbb1_A71WNe7BTyXba_wofj1APl3oWoUuhxwqw_3dFMTY1POx7O9E2HPPKRbZIaYVYqLuWP/w640-h356/download.gif" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>I suspect some of the reason for that is the anomalously warm water still present out there. On this map below, the sea surface temperature anomaly is the background image (in °C), Tropical Storm Sean's forecast track and track forecast cone are overlaid in the center, and the easterly wave's current position and potential formation zone in the coming week are shown by the yellow X and corresponding shaded area.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMxuYxfws8J2OpYDyFPQYH9P1uaQfLGDCBEbYBg3OlZ5yvEJZmhYH-j3o18NTbPkFb5WL8r4LAbSRphsIZVmDmaYC-i-5BxEwig3_GwRrXRj1r1b-lC4hBjNPQYR7vg1uRGZCuItyIevZ5cfnPnvA9SgKuRC5qiq6fH90gmOaZeUS0J5w8eaRtacFzMsQ5/s1396/ssta.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="786" data-original-width="1396" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMxuYxfws8J2OpYDyFPQYH9P1uaQfLGDCBEbYBg3OlZ5yvEJZmhYH-j3o18NTbPkFb5WL8r4LAbSRphsIZVmDmaYC-i-5BxEwig3_GwRrXRj1r1b-lC4hBjNPQYR7vg1uRGZCuItyIevZ5cfnPnvA9SgKuRC5qiq6fH90gmOaZeUS0J5w8eaRtacFzMsQ5/w640-h360/ssta.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>Sean is the season's 19th named storm, but probably won't be around much longer. Conditions were only marginally favorable for development in the first place, and increasing vertical wind shear <i>should</i> limit the storm's lifetime to just 3-5 days. But, a couple hurricane models show it turning to the north a little sooner, and missing some of the interaction with the stronger shear... allowing it to intensify in 4-5 days. So we can't tune this out just yet.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3yA313JmlpzXU2o4PEB7jWQ9O5YNoRWb-BixvnLhl12T51xjdGWVOhZoc_dcnOUwuhmqIvR9-nx8MOEfWwWU0fbX1sijm59voQJhMtGkMe5_WC6QlFNiOEAva0KpfF2fQsoiaka3PT9IBpw0kiCH9l01FhxezmNzlhgbLSZwm12kcYV3BW1sADKgQJ9Ah/s1506/19L_tracks_latest.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="600" data-original-width="1506" height="254" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3yA313JmlpzXU2o4PEB7jWQ9O5YNoRWb-BixvnLhl12T51xjdGWVOhZoc_dcnOUwuhmqIvR9-nx8MOEfWwWU0fbX1sijm59voQJhMtGkMe5_WC6QlFNiOEAva0KpfF2fQsoiaka3PT9IBpw0kiCH9l01FhxezmNzlhgbLSZwm12kcYV3BW1sADKgQJ9Ah/w640-h254/19L_tracks_latest.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>The easterly wave that just left Africa is given a 30% probability of development in the coming week by the National Hurricane Center. It's not expected to move very quickly, but models generally indicate that it will gradually develop and stay in the deep tropics... potentially reaching the Lesser Antilles in about 10 days. However, at this long lead time, it's premature to venture a guess if it will be anything of concern to the Antilles... just something to watch and be aware of. Should it become a tropical storm, the next name on the list is Tammy. </div><div><br /></div><div>By the end of the day, the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) will be at about 124% of the climatological average for the date, and 105% of an average full season.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgy3dOjqjVquoniIj9iL6QDSwgCbXd09ApvRoiyXZRR5p-fxtXMRUnuwNijEgOB-Y1y7V7LF1bBZxhud2MpjOega-Ytvs8VY5AGXq1xUCUiRIeRVrCW9zslfTeMMkF9YS4WqADmrM9s0ewM5YsxHconyXv0mFxC78EMX8yRQP_q1R2RRThWZ6yFWYwWoGc3/s1780/ace_oct11.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1015" data-original-width="1780" height="364" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgy3dOjqjVquoniIj9iL6QDSwgCbXd09ApvRoiyXZRR5p-fxtXMRUnuwNijEgOB-Y1y7V7LF1bBZxhud2MpjOega-Ytvs8VY5AGXq1xUCUiRIeRVrCW9zslfTeMMkF9YS4WqADmrM9s0ewM5YsxHconyXv0mFxC78EMX8yRQP_q1R2RRThWZ6yFWYwWoGc3/w640-h364/ace_oct11.png" width="640" /></a></div><ul><li><a href="https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/atlantic/">Visit the Tropical Atlantic Headquarters.</a></li>
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<br />Brian McNoldyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04715111761592171629noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2293694965190434637.post-11280011728305394442023-09-28T11:59:00.002-04:002023-09-28T11:59:09.785-04:00Tropical Storms Philippe and Rina lurking in the deep tropics<img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCzJJakRP8KLKWf4kdF_B17JjIa_Fv16R4V0rx2J6xgqMZYbSenzKDjH9czBXcyx42m0PXGt7UmdoIkiegGjAv1EQ0s76Fht8PKClTzzD8d4icsCyXrRlEf4V1AyZwNugp5HshpK_eKJedm-xldVo9l9igPiT0BR0JOV8XrzC0Rj6VhbyApTenv71tCc0S/s919/cira-rammb-slider---goes-16---full_disk---geocolor-opacity-100---20230928151021.png" style="display: none;" />
<div>Tropical Depression 17 formed on Saturday morning and was upgraded to Tropical Storm Philippe shortly afterward... and Tropical Storm Rina just formed on Thursday morning. Both are located east of the Lesser Antilles and most likely will not affect land. They are rather close together and in this satellite loop, it's even hard to tell them apart! (Philippe is west of Rina)</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjzdeC5SUeDZ2XDfslcUpuAGsuvZwao4JgP4IdGXvf_lEb4ciT8CauiNUqZkHnU0DxW3cvTAc8KLugPMJPf2QzOi3i8TMDM2Ujltm28_LRjfSmG3RGbKAl2_y-TEYwLx_NuWHzxaNbn6VWTFaJpGRZoTAPhSVkCFWrjy-Rikgozwz_fI4VDhHJC8s3PCfd/s919/download.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="485" data-original-width="919" height="338" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjzdeC5SUeDZ2XDfslcUpuAGsuvZwao4JgP4IdGXvf_lEb4ciT8CauiNUqZkHnU0DxW3cvTAc8KLugPMJPf2QzOi3i8TMDM2Ujltm28_LRjfSmG3RGbKAl2_y-TEYwLx_NuWHzxaNbn6VWTFaJpGRZoTAPhSVkCFWrjy-Rikgozwz_fI4VDhHJC8s3PCfd/w640-h338/download.gif" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>Philippe has been hovering as a mid-range tropical storm all week, and its future is very interesting and uncertain... much more than normal. This example is from the American global model (GFS) ensemble and is representative of the spread we're seeing in the other models. One cluster dissipates the storm or at least keeps it weak as it heads west toward the Caribbean, while another cluster stalls, turns north, and becomes a strong hurricane. In a few of the scenarios, this could be a close call for the extreme northeast Caribbean islands, so certainly something to pay close attention to there. The NHC forecast is a hybrid of these outcomes: their forecast takes it west, then turning north well before reaching the islands, but keeping the intensity steady as a weak tropical storm. </div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipobznqzqgg1y70TcgTeG4pLHLAvsNE3L7aXY1v60ZJgvv_XRwLdebs_14weMLfkT-kfzi-rwzl3RCNii4ZhDdad8RX0OrqCDEqK5Ygpog9an-n1yqYozA-bDyluVpVUCkC3sV5bUYx1SSAO-qlWPiTO-xJgGwFQJ73Am5hpnfcAVqPEi9VuYf17V4EZ2s/s2297/AL172023_gefs2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1554" data-original-width="2297" height="432" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipobznqzqgg1y70TcgTeG4pLHLAvsNE3L7aXY1v60ZJgvv_XRwLdebs_14weMLfkT-kfzi-rwzl3RCNii4ZhDdad8RX0OrqCDEqK5Ygpog9an-n1yqYozA-bDyluVpVUCkC3sV5bUYx1SSAO-qlWPiTO-xJgGwFQJ73Am5hpnfcAVqPEi9VuYf17V4EZ2s/w640-h432/AL172023_gefs2.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>Tropical Storm Rina is located just 650 miles east of Philippe and is not expected to strengthen much. It is the 18th named storm of the season... keep in mind the climatological average number of named storms in an entire season is 14. There are a couple reasons for its modest intensity outlook: the proximity to Philippe and increasing vertical wind shear.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi77bEc0uEhiosrFK3KhLER2Sq_jBzxgrizco7hnlJnu-Q1oEJctfG3QzQqrH0Glup5NQ3XREJvEey-7phd6SYxRLyKn6AHzpZHV2OdGvW6rsEpfnR0sfTakTt_UtJKUfrSqi7DQMJIXVdq9x6HQAxA0JhtwoZcDyUgZY3ABGbD20H_tA4zaP2PZQSsrIsp/s897/145528_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="736" data-original-width="897" height="526" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi77bEc0uEhiosrFK3KhLER2Sq_jBzxgrizco7hnlJnu-Q1oEJctfG3QzQqrH0Glup5NQ3XREJvEey-7phd6SYxRLyKn6AHzpZHV2OdGvW6rsEpfnR0sfTakTt_UtJKUfrSqi7DQMJIXVdq9x6HQAxA0JhtwoZcDyUgZY3ABGbD20H_tA4zaP2PZQSsrIsp/w640-h526/145528_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>The Accumulated Cyclone Energy, or ACE, is at about 132% of average for the date, and 99% of an average full-season's total. Impressively, today is the 40th consecutive day of ACE accrual... the activity has been <i>nonstop</i> from Emily through Rina!</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTynC0slwSgLT0l3uKoaEahGWUdtYHXFIJMrPQqwq1upTW9itHpc-UgUQCH12ocmG8l5jhEmFSHkHDbLME_7flahApRSfKtSWp-wQnQ0MWkIoUBdfkqUjGPXx7Hm1r8GTwTTgdonvF_DReCy_2FZoS040phluoHiVhzCC_L7iTcWL_RTvmi_pSQtrEAArk/s1780/ace_28sep.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1015" data-original-width="1780" height="364" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTynC0slwSgLT0l3uKoaEahGWUdtYHXFIJMrPQqwq1upTW9itHpc-UgUQCH12ocmG8l5jhEmFSHkHDbLME_7flahApRSfKtSWp-wQnQ0MWkIoUBdfkqUjGPXx7Hm1r8GTwTTgdonvF_DReCy_2FZoS040phluoHiVhzCC_L7iTcWL_RTvmi_pSQtrEAArk/w640-h364/ace_28sep.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>Although there are no other features of interest out there to monitor yet, the next couple of names on the list are Sean and Tammy. As we head into October, activity from Africa begins to dwindle, and we start looking to the western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico for formation areas. The ocean temperature in these areas is also very warm compared to normal for this time of year, so not only does that give incipient storms a nudge, the area of "favorable" warm water is larger than normal too.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiF2cE46sBR-P3eGfRqLCFCyiZYjP3Gs10y2ZpNp1trdouhnZixen1VFLgw_g_p4xSxsiOC6quiyWwCZr0b54Y3WQ7wQq6QpHY7gGCJY3Ri-jPXUHMpnUurGGcYF3IC7Gzv_no55IReJU5LsqAWsnFSMSj7YNn_MAnecgSv5GqW-wMu2ApN5_s3jLaJ3hD8/s902/atlan0.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="572" data-original-width="902" height="406" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiF2cE46sBR-P3eGfRqLCFCyiZYjP3Gs10y2ZpNp1trdouhnZixen1VFLgw_g_p4xSxsiOC6quiyWwCZr0b54Y3WQ7wQq6QpHY7gGCJY3Ri-jPXUHMpnUurGGcYF3IC7Gzv_no55IReJU5LsqAWsnFSMSj7YNn_MAnecgSv5GqW-wMu2ApN5_s3jLaJ3hD8/w640-h406/atlan0.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div>
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<br />Brian McNoldyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04715111761592171629noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2293694965190434637.post-88151728880551735372023-09-21T14:25:00.000-04:002023-09-21T14:25:45.717-04:00Monitoring two new disturbances as Nigel exits the sceneActivity in the Atlantic has been relatively uneventful for the middle of September, so since my <a href="http://bmcnoldy.blogspot.com/2023/09/lee-heading-for-canada-margot-weakening.html">previous post on Friday</a>, Lee did of course make landfall in Nova Scotia, Margot dissipated, and Nigel became a hurricane. Today, Nigel is heading for colder water and won't be around much longer, but there are two areas of interest to keep an eye on. The next two names are Ophelia and Philippe.<div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRwe90BHZ0T4tiNxiITrX3RBRssSPbX7SxDZHi5ZRqKLfqgH4nmQ6XT5G2aHGJr6IldsH8FxdyxRHnB0qmtmgc0ZLOVLoCzwf6NVSi_-pdtJj73RAmv--QmTLrn6FmMoNdGCjiALEwzPwPTK9dVlX9RahC53isyZpqc9wiR_2Y8wkWgBU9nqu3ez5BOwdm/s2342/summary_north_atlantic.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1529" data-original-width="2342" height="418" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRwe90BHZ0T4tiNxiITrX3RBRssSPbX7SxDZHi5ZRqKLfqgH4nmQ6XT5G2aHGJr6IldsH8FxdyxRHnB0qmtmgc0ZLOVLoCzwf6NVSi_-pdtJj73RAmv--QmTLrn6FmMoNdGCjiALEwzPwPTK9dVlX9RahC53isyZpqc9wiR_2Y8wkWgBU9nqu3ez5BOwdm/w640-h418/summary_north_atlantic.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>I'll start with Nigel. It was upgraded to a hurricane on Monday morning and tracked north through the middle of the Atlantic. It reached Category 2 intensity for a while late Tuesday into Wednesday, but is now a Category 1 hurricane again, and expected to become an extratropical cyclone by Friday morning as it heads toward Iceland... two weeks after leaving the African coast.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiTBNJb36EcwURxYHzd0WDiELhk5ULuJtvWtX0E5wlZPAjzwsDml6_4S_3kr_qHTSOysLgKUoTkuNEyTWi1JYA9lnCH1_DdmHtJJqc7wRpVOUVMabjjrWgCwp3iHah-m-Wsl3I7RYFDfeF9phHRR7EQSQg7WosRPn6g8AJzpYMiBLlr3ixL-iLYLiIJhxv1/s897/143811_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="736" data-original-width="897" height="526" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiTBNJb36EcwURxYHzd0WDiELhk5ULuJtvWtX0E5wlZPAjzwsDml6_4S_3kr_qHTSOysLgKUoTkuNEyTWi1JYA9lnCH1_DdmHtJJqc7wRpVOUVMabjjrWgCwp3iHah-m-Wsl3I7RYFDfeF9phHRR7EQSQg7WosRPn6g8AJzpYMiBLlr3ixL-iLYLiIJhxv1/w640-h526/143811_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>The first area of interest to watch for development is a low pressure that is beginning to form along an old stalled-out cold front. It's centered east of the Florida peninsula and has been designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone 16 by NHC on Thursday morning. That means it still hasn't formed, but is expected to and warrants some tropical storm warnings.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNVH72NfhSfbuFMM9XxpOX6BHPyexO454wzhIOGOF4p1nbspXgic7sHyWpcDez6KNXhIj-F2ZRPUwuQaS9g7NZ1JCdYkU68yP2Vb1VTAGzvTibwkbp8nDk4Y8UkXqa8DWmM0WHojYOsIKH6L3_fSxgy_UyF0YlG7v8yj6LObEDuTk9IibXnV5SNockhcE1/s648/download.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="428" data-original-width="648" height="422" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNVH72NfhSfbuFMM9XxpOX6BHPyexO454wzhIOGOF4p1nbspXgic7sHyWpcDez6KNXhIj-F2ZRPUwuQaS9g7NZ1JCdYkU68yP2Vb1VTAGzvTibwkbp8nDk4Y8UkXqa8DWmM0WHojYOsIKH6L3_fSxgy_UyF0YlG7v8yj6LObEDuTk9IibXnV5SNockhcE1/w640-h422/download.gif" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>It already has characteristics that are more subtropical than tropical, but either way, it would get named and NHC will issue advisories and forecast products for it. The forecast brings it north to a landfall in North Carolina on Saturday morning as a (sub)tropical storm. Tropical storm force winds will likely arrive in eastern NC on Friday evening. You can find the full suite of the latest forecast products at <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?start#contents">https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?start#contents</a></div><div><br /></div><div>Parts of North Carolina, Virginia, and Maryland could see 2-4 feet of the storm surge from this over the weekend, and the threat of flooding rain is increasing from North Carolina up into New England.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjR_0GUpnrvXnMnFyLtxWXXCJ3_qjAEjfHmWZ5ygukH8F1V5mhSnU1ZmI0QCHcDDmArZE_M-tycMk0oA_IbHLIrMlidUGc_tfl1fsGspjWqWYty3y2DzUXJBPTvapvLwpnDRA5dbMLEmHRkLMTPdqgTEXWF6JJGhXTbsN4qyYZg-Snzlfqf-UK7tXbYt6fR/s1663/152519_peak_surge.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="692" data-original-width="1663" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjR_0GUpnrvXnMnFyLtxWXXCJ3_qjAEjfHmWZ5ygukH8F1V5mhSnU1ZmI0QCHcDDmArZE_M-tycMk0oA_IbHLIrMlidUGc_tfl1fsGspjWqWYty3y2DzUXJBPTvapvLwpnDRA5dbMLEmHRkLMTPdqgTEXWF6JJGhXTbsN4qyYZg-Snzlfqf-UK7tXbYt6fR/w640-h266/152519_peak_surge.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>Much further east is an easterly wave that left the African coast on Tuesday. It's located just southwest of Cabo Verde and is expected to track generally west-northwest for the next week or so, then its future path becomes harder to predict.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJV5J1G12k89C0pQFc6A9FQs1x_U-aKEe1jeJ0NLtG1r-6QPbSeysS0TgIkrWjxUVCCYQo9AHbNYGi_no9r4dUhlIhUqErF7VJd2NFaNK3RCRppM8rkXyXYtunPn9syjff9gZFVCIQzDCbmmQ1saFvLuTFoeaQ1eiqu1G_vhNybeNFZFsOJYEY8g9zO2oz/s919/download%20(1).gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="511" data-original-width="919" height="356" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJV5J1G12k89C0pQFc6A9FQs1x_U-aKEe1jeJ0NLtG1r-6QPbSeysS0TgIkrWjxUVCCYQo9AHbNYGi_no9r4dUhlIhUqErF7VJd2NFaNK3RCRppM8rkXyXYtunPn9syjff9gZFVCIQzDCbmmQ1saFvLuTFoeaQ1eiqu1G_vhNybeNFZFsOJYEY8g9zO2oz/w640-h356/download%20(1).gif" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div>This is not an Invest yet, so we are limited to global models and their ensembles for guidance. The two skillful ones we typically look at are the American (GFS) and European (ECMWF). These two images below show the tracks from the GFS (top) and ECMWF (bottom) ensembles, ending next Friday evening. Although both of them are pretty consistent in bringing it up to hurricane intensity by Tuesday-ish, and both of them have a general tendency to turn it north by the time gets to 60°W-ish, the GFS ensemble does have more members that show a hurricane clipping the northeast Caribbean islands. This is something we need to watch closely, because if that route starts looking more likely, it makes the northward turn less likely which has implications in the following days.<div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhEbLTnk8-TOp9VMLBB_mZ9u5sQ5dN7uYOMFsIPgw5JOSOtBJQfBls41vnvjp6qiaRZroHZft-MZ4ui6_gCptDTassPJd2B-2oQgPZPA5h3asI5yB45pQqstLuAVIVXvVOLDMh4jKmEgGKt-nr21GD0ZKgswAJD4J30s-J-5j24CU3M1VHdROtm9wwo282N/s1082/gefs_2023-09-21-12Z_204_31.752_285.512_7.81_341.238_MSLP_Surface_tracks_lows.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1082" data-original-width="1050" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhEbLTnk8-TOp9VMLBB_mZ9u5sQ5dN7uYOMFsIPgw5JOSOtBJQfBls41vnvjp6qiaRZroHZft-MZ4ui6_gCptDTassPJd2B-2oQgPZPA5h3asI5yB45pQqstLuAVIVXvVOLDMh4jKmEgGKt-nr21GD0ZKgswAJD4J30s-J-5j24CU3M1VHdROtm9wwo282N/w622-h640/gefs_2023-09-21-12Z_204_31.752_285.512_7.81_341.238_MSLP_Surface_tracks_lows.png" width="622" /></a></div><br /><div>Again, the next two names are Ophelia and Philippe and it's not clear yet which of these two systems will become a tropical (or subtropical) cyclone first.</div><div><br /></div><div>The Accumulated Cyclone Energy, ACE, is about 142% of average for the date.</div><div><div><br /></div><div>
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<br /></div></div>Brian McNoldyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04715111761592171629noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2293694965190434637.post-40219189892420129692023-09-15T11:28:00.000-04:002023-09-15T11:28:12.378-04:00Lee heading for Canada, Margot weakening, Nigel on the horizon<img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvA5tVzevgXIFAKbsyrccB5ifWrpv9SNdAMrW53bwK8LJEZCG0I7SVskmluRqOr0MiER-BqjvKLJb8NrDdI2huLfUa3Jkwudl4_Je7z7G0eRlZPwXBT0lo6Fwj5Yo0zFl3iQnNKlC2FU4qR94xe7tQsSHRrP___oJ1-uB7XpVGqjsriDaVBFqAYA5Nbycc/s1050/GOES16_1km_vis_202309151505_8.00_46.50_-92.50_-9.75_vis1_hgwy_warn_weathernerds.png" style="display:none;" />
Since my <a href="http://bmcnoldy.blogspot.com/2023/09/hurricane-lee-about-to-turn-north.html">update on Tuesday</a>, Lee and Margot have "behaved" as forecast: Lee turned north, weakened, passed west of Bermuda, and is headed for Nova Scotia. Margot maintained Category 1 hurricane intensity but just dropped back down to a tropical storm early Friday morning. Finally, Invest 97L became Tropical Depression 15 on Friday morning and will be named Nigel once it reaches tropical storm intensity. On the satellite loop below, Lee is in the upper left, Margot is in the upper right, and TD15 is in the bottom middle.<div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNw8AmpTPShxvYGtFk_sYFrjhZtbhXjC6-m43xZh3CnI5dR-oBgkrXhloT2IrQyPT6Nrn0ynv00bHKWxOvIieni7MkLd3WMpMJCurNn5X-CNIeu5u1o5cRF6WU8Gjw2lEI3QzBVcomrDSo8Cy7v2F8LsJcvRqFtlxekdqbTzjrYwJFymH7juZOzl-3IKIG/s1050/73282383.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="679" data-original-width="1050" height="414" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNw8AmpTPShxvYGtFk_sYFrjhZtbhXjC6-m43xZh3CnI5dR-oBgkrXhloT2IrQyPT6Nrn0ynv00bHKWxOvIieni7MkLd3WMpMJCurNn5X-CNIeu5u1o5cRF6WU8Gjw2lEI3QzBVcomrDSo8Cy7v2F8LsJcvRqFtlxekdqbTzjrYwJFymH7juZOzl-3IKIG/w640-h414/73282383.gif" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>Lee is now a Category 1 hurricane and a very large one at that. Tropical storm winds extend as far as 320 miles from the center, and hurricane winds extend as far as 105 miles from the center. A storm surge of 1-3 feet is possible along much of the New England coast.</div><div><br /></div><div>It is forecast to make landfall in western Nova Scotia midday Saturday though strong winds will arrive before that... it could be an upper-end tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane, and possibly no longer technically be classified as a tropical cyclone, but that does not change the expected impacts. This process is called "extratropical transition", and it involves changes in the dynamic and thermodynamic structure and properties of the cyclone. Extratropical cyclones can also be very intense and impactful (remember Sandy 2012?).</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGSRICLR0Iuxbi2oIysXI2rGBPQcZsxmbNsP87JKoSmM6ceJ_tQhh2f2WqwoEfzXwdSH9AbfvarPNEaVNBHUBw0jjzPuqbEnjWwquOLilxexs4veyPOxYbjPUYdX5Y3Xwqk9HRgSDyXd-8ExLyawXcL8wQRQefR9moc26xPzD_n2NKX8-Cb5KU5HXkoyVl/s897/145447_most_likely_toa_34.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="736" data-original-width="897" height="526" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGSRICLR0Iuxbi2oIysXI2rGBPQcZsxmbNsP87JKoSmM6ceJ_tQhh2f2WqwoEfzXwdSH9AbfvarPNEaVNBHUBw0jjzPuqbEnjWwquOLilxexs4veyPOxYbjPUYdX5Y3Xwqk9HRgSDyXd-8ExLyawXcL8wQRQefR9moc26xPzD_n2NKX8-Cb5KU5HXkoyVl/w640-h526/145447_most_likely_toa_34.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>Margot could be around for a while longer, generally maintaining tropical storm intensity. It found itself in an area of weak steering flow and is just circling around west of the Azores. Even if it eventually reaches the Azores sometime in the middle of next week, it should not be too much of a concern.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmfv5vP_t7AVYkWtJA_X-T9PgtXbYKiw4P9zqo2Zp57kl7Tsp56Nq9SXhE_WJjA1d2NnopXROMIhb-elbuP0gok9YVLav66MUBGl4Lv_BU5GdkV9bbMGlUqSYLafP_A6AcX3GGeQOYx2kY4vgG72RTts5bvjaQXX_TAQCNY--bFZvAKPZrTXvSlDo1JAHJ/s2263/AL142023_forecast.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1538" data-original-width="2263" height="434" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmfv5vP_t7AVYkWtJA_X-T9PgtXbYKiw4P9zqo2Zp57kl7Tsp56Nq9SXhE_WJjA1d2NnopXROMIhb-elbuP0gok9YVLav66MUBGl4Lv_BU5GdkV9bbMGlUqSYLafP_A6AcX3GGeQOYx2kY4vgG72RTts5bvjaQXX_TAQCNY--bFZvAKPZrTXvSlDo1JAHJ/w640-h434/AL142023_forecast.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>Elsewhere, the Invest 97L and 98L merger happened and has been carried as just 97L... at 11am Eastern on Friday it was upgraded to Tropical Depression 15 and it's quite close to reaching tropical storm status. The next name is Nigel which is a new name on the list, replacing Nate from the 2017 season. </div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiNkq29JF5JDw4XFGDXF9YC2gWfTdfROOEtSv6km-Ym9FX3rWW_Del865eZJfjbMiD8HMGbzR-qgq24kiuLAO6biYI_-RYyuM6q_knO6SuuoQ0xZHJ0ZrgkOmYxP4m0GHvi5a0qfcYC1D-xAoi9yiUdLadVUuIbENBz42IqkCV9OSAO-0GxRYdZaFbFqkHb/s906/download.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="521" data-original-width="906" height="368" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiNkq29JF5JDw4XFGDXF9YC2gWfTdfROOEtSv6km-Ym9FX3rWW_Del865eZJfjbMiD8HMGbzR-qgq24kiuLAO6biYI_-RYyuM6q_knO6SuuoQ0xZHJ0ZrgkOmYxP4m0GHvi5a0qfcYC1D-xAoi9yiUdLadVUuIbENBz42IqkCV9OSAO-0GxRYdZaFbFqkHb/w640-h368/download.gif" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>TD15 is located about 1200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles in the deep tropical Atlantic. There is strong agreement among the models that TD15/Nigel will continue tracking to the northwest for the next five days or so, then turn north by the time it reaches about 60°W. The models also agree on it becoming a strong storm -- very likely a hurricane by Monday.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhU6QWZaeu8hfvdGtJ2L2ngVoibyslyudizUJ7Zy02kJAFLP2KK9MGwG30yqBhzv7trAF-Y3obvQ0xGfVIv-1NayXFAJQRqSng4zZH6cCSlbH9uFJHuU4Aok7rgR4XgRSjc6H13e56P-ugh4ATwPzLTcGRn2_JPRppPLy93xcoJziiC-BgSKr7kNLvGKj7J/s801/15L_tracks_latest.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="801" data-original-width="768" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhU6QWZaeu8hfvdGtJ2L2ngVoibyslyudizUJ7Zy02kJAFLP2KK9MGwG30yqBhzv7trAF-Y3obvQ0xGfVIv-1NayXFAJQRqSng4zZH6cCSlbH9uFJHuU4Aok7rgR4XgRSjc6H13e56P-ugh4ATwPzLTcGRn2_JPRppPLy93xcoJziiC-BgSKr7kNLvGKj7J/w614-h640/15L_tracks_latest.png" width="614" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) is at about 148% of average for the date and is the highest value for the date since 2017, then 2008 before that. In other words, pretty exceptional.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhow_EhlYbWyx9oc3LwHri3Wa418J8JMbOwVkJ-w45HZQdumN9hQE81H0mc-5DWrtrIH0245CDq8EDpJxqzqT7hap9v4UgM7fepMFUcNSPVaIUmnluyXd8a_n-L-IVQ5wf1nS88Nng5miC6KDYxZcqnqqkXhiSR8e1SR3eyhYhKBKb0Kijk7sA7RQ7yZvHB/s1780/ace_15sep.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1015" data-original-width="1780" height="364" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhow_EhlYbWyx9oc3LwHri3Wa418J8JMbOwVkJ-w45HZQdumN9hQE81H0mc-5DWrtrIH0245CDq8EDpJxqzqT7hap9v4UgM7fepMFUcNSPVaIUmnluyXd8a_n-L-IVQ5wf1nS88Nng5miC6KDYxZcqnqqkXhiSR8e1SR3eyhYhKBKb0Kijk7sA7RQ7yZvHB/w640-h364/ace_15sep.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNphPhjXU55bpLp0o3xrCeRNQBSxhRMaDsJQIL-A-OqdHuLiW3LA3jLSY-r4D3V_VH6TOU1AjWRmAIPFTIn4f0elAbVqxn190i4snAcPHQMAUd4zc1Jekcc1NFmTCaJSb_dwTO4ujCi9ZPQyQV-fg5Kt6q4azL7HFhYPs-LG6U9oll9-Qn4nAFCRIgqbt6/s1680/ace_15sep_annual.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1122" data-original-width="1680" height="428" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNphPhjXU55bpLp0o3xrCeRNQBSxhRMaDsJQIL-A-OqdHuLiW3LA3jLSY-r4D3V_VH6TOU1AjWRmAIPFTIn4f0elAbVqxn190i4snAcPHQMAUd4zc1Jekcc1NFmTCaJSb_dwTO4ujCi9ZPQyQV-fg5Kt6q4azL7HFhYPs-LG6U9oll9-Qn4nAFCRIgqbt6/w640-h428/ace_15sep_annual.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div><ul><li><a href="https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/atlantic/">Visit the Tropical Atlantic Headquarters.</a></li><li><a href="http://groups.google.com/group/tropatlan/subscribe">Subscribe to get these updates emailed to you.</a></li><li>Follow me on <a href="https://bsky.app/profile/bmcnoldy.bsky.social">Bluesky</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy">X</a></li></ul></div>Brian McNoldyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04715111761592171629noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2293694965190434637.post-79455995435192588712023-09-12T11:28:00.001-04:002023-09-12T11:32:35.993-04:00Hurricane Lee about to turn north, widespread impacts expected in US and Canada<div>Lee is still major hurricane, and has been since Thursday afternoon ("major" is conventionally defined to be Category 3+). It's moving toward the west-northwest but the long-awaited north turn should commence later today or early Wednesday.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhkuJO4Qhi4bazhZAJHI0JvEbLBZSzBggFDDoTWFQZXpJ9p9II9QLA00p4dSq8KIPwyZHhJ5qlp8q4ntAqzVhuJRzhR_NrdHZ0PTruORqQkbEEV_gY8lZNsJBXPs64AG7OucUTMDk0Tb9tZfRPH2ek_ayR_rv0XnvdYI5EeBNgDv8wMMjDvjPVeCDd90-_a/s1111/GOES151020232554RdT1I.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="554" data-original-width="1111" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhkuJO4Qhi4bazhZAJHI0JvEbLBZSzBggFDDoTWFQZXpJ9p9II9QLA00p4dSq8KIPwyZHhJ5qlp8q4ntAqzVhuJRzhR_NrdHZ0PTruORqQkbEEV_gY8lZNsJBXPs64AG7OucUTMDk0Tb9tZfRPH2ek_ayR_rv0XnvdYI5EeBNgDv8wMMjDvjPVeCDd90-_a/w640-h320/GOES151020232554RdT1I.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>It's likely going to bring tropical storm conditions to Bermuda on Thursday, then to eastern New England and eastern Canada on Saturday. It's too soon to know exactly where the center of the storm will go, but it will be a large storm with a broad wind field... areas far from the center will experience impacts. That said, the model consensus track has been unwavering with a landfall point near western Nova Scotia on Saturday night into Sunday morning.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgg3_uh7H2NQ3diHITUvjifXJbvUt8F-VA2tbe9ml1o7WtZNMF7xYWkwtIAlSRaaB3spYFYfuOfqN0dLoOJJoLfgs97VJsj5FDY1fByzH3a9QRnSPmEDKjG6ZHmvkujA0akkUWroRQKok9KTJSqxu-Q0bDJPqJCJSmKZzyazmlsid8-wi6LLAF4KhaoYRcH/s897/144241_most_likely_toa_34.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="736" data-original-width="897" height="526" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgg3_uh7H2NQ3diHITUvjifXJbvUt8F-VA2tbe9ml1o7WtZNMF7xYWkwtIAlSRaaB3spYFYfuOfqN0dLoOJJoLfgs97VJsj5FDY1fByzH3a9QRnSPmEDKjG6ZHmvkujA0akkUWroRQKok9KTJSqxu-Q0bDJPqJCJSmKZzyazmlsid8-wi6LLAF4KhaoYRcH/w640-h526/144241_most_likely_toa_34.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>The U.S. east coast, Nova Scotia, and Newfoundland are going to experience some significant impacts from Lee in the coming few days: primarily coastal flooding from storm surge. To add to the flooding, tides are amplified surrounding Thursday's new moon. The animation below shows the predicted "significant wave height" from the GFS wave model, out to next Tuesday morning. With the new moon's assistance, this multi-day onshore swell energy is going to create big problems from Florida to Newfoundland.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLW1UNGiCosSheYu-bF5OD4SrOS6XJ4vdcWPzkANIeqJf5NZ5zAr7maC37Z2Zhifv7F3pdir1Yux3l-AVerYCK9ehzShhoemz-nVQsgCYQrlxz8OS1uo6kjrB8UhQjt_oUMQJgi-416PXj-kzVCq--bJ2X4Nz_-n4Ei9DDjI26qSc48eEzzo8HdMV5jgHe/s1024/13751c4d-6bbf-4378-842a-4fbd5f39b803.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="786" data-original-width="1024" height="492" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLW1UNGiCosSheYu-bF5OD4SrOS6XJ4vdcWPzkANIeqJf5NZ5zAr7maC37Z2Zhifv7F3pdir1Yux3l-AVerYCK9ehzShhoemz-nVQsgCYQrlxz8OS1uo6kjrB8UhQjt_oUMQJgi-416PXj-kzVCq--bJ2X4Nz_-n4Ei9DDjI26qSc48eEzzo8HdMV5jgHe/w640-h492/13751c4d-6bbf-4378-842a-4fbd5f39b803.gif" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>Margot was upgraded to the season's fifth hurricane on Monday afternoon but it not going to affect land. It's intensifying and is nearly a Category 2 hurricane as of Tuesday morning. It will continue heading north into cooler waters and gradually dissipate in a week or so.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWioFrx7tBTIO9nAg-kZ4PxiegOt34YgrQ4Dd9WTpLWKecRra9hIXsPn5SuLx_GWAUbtgZlG_qrHWVUzctE7FTtYZvZirTUEAqZxG1AUP8N29n5EpiIO-DEB74uL715GYr1stvmP7AxoDK6iKbegcnlFS7mAPmmX4jhZsb9qJy5coX54l3T_bLzASbD4b6/s897/145119_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="736" data-original-width="897" height="526" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWioFrx7tBTIO9nAg-kZ4PxiegOt34YgrQ4Dd9WTpLWKecRra9hIXsPn5SuLx_GWAUbtgZlG_qrHWVUzctE7FTtYZvZirTUEAqZxG1AUP8N29n5EpiIO-DEB74uL715GYr1stvmP7AxoDK6iKbegcnlFS7mAPmmX4jhZsb9qJy5coX54l3T_bLzASbD4b6/w640-h526/145119_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>There was a little bit of a traffic jam leaving Africa, and two easterly waves (Invests 97L and 98L) are very close to each other and they might end up merging. This sloppy beginning could still produce a tropical cyclone, and the model guidance supports that. NHC is giving it a 70% chance of development within a week. The GFS ensemble track forecast out to next Tuesday morning is shown below to give a sense of the spread with this so far.</div><div><br /></div><div>It is certainly something to keep an eye on... should it become a tropical storm, the next name on this list is Nigel. Nigel is a new name on the list, replacing Nate from the 2017 season.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7aVzMp9Y-5fcYDdMZjLK049SXLuYxt1CBRNU13y5r5Lupa59AP-v6xvqY6_pniGcH_azX5MZZP9tvIRAOm1Lyw9KKTywWabv4gZBtzI_adZ-A76gZjKVoAPrkaSciPpwe3x12lNHqhVMGzp3Q_iR3peVyttmWc-tZMYxY1HOs0d2LmxP3q83kqeIUN3hW/s1050/gefs_2023-09-12-06Z_174_32.295_294.487_8.528_330.688_MSLP_Surface_tracks_lows.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="1050" height="458" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7aVzMp9Y-5fcYDdMZjLK049SXLuYxt1CBRNU13y5r5Lupa59AP-v6xvqY6_pniGcH_azX5MZZP9tvIRAOm1Lyw9KKTywWabv4gZBtzI_adZ-A76gZjKVoAPrkaSciPpwe3x12lNHqhVMGzp3Q_iR3peVyttmWc-tZMYxY1HOs0d2LmxP3q83kqeIUN3hW/w640-h458/gefs_2023-09-12-06Z_174_32.295_294.487_8.528_330.688_MSLP_Surface_tracks_lows.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>Climatologically, September 12 is the halfway point of the season in terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE). Through today's date, this year's ACE is the highest since 2017, and actually exceeds the full-season total of many recent years (2015, 2014, 2013, 2009, 2007, 2006, 2002, etc). It's at 143% of average for the date, and 73% of the full-season average value.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6UIJqnL_02z8ZPtwuUQqGZFF83gEP6W24mNa1CatORPbzhK29V-arO3O89Iu-vyN7X-GWlI-TO6VYMTfW-8V2VrAeRrYjprnTVAuaz7kMez5WHZ_MZ5cX0zAPgcNVvf1tEDwZ5uHBZ8K2SWsYD8ywRkNibMIt1HiltyV1d6HX19ZbMLZp5-SiEcqTWK9S/s1780/ace_12sep.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1015" data-original-width="1780" height="364" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6UIJqnL_02z8ZPtwuUQqGZFF83gEP6W24mNa1CatORPbzhK29V-arO3O89Iu-vyN7X-GWlI-TO6VYMTfW-8V2VrAeRrYjprnTVAuaz7kMez5WHZ_MZ5cX0zAPgcNVvf1tEDwZ5uHBZ8K2SWsYD8ywRkNibMIt1HiltyV1d6HX19ZbMLZp5-SiEcqTWK9S/w640-h364/ace_12sep.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgCVdqq7ooFSdQHt5L0e3pJZKfuQ-crbop3plJjPxIp1ePh_0jPn1yPUlfXu2HatswbiURHXeePkTRwr2iBmSytxiUJgJk5JI8EtbTWyO2GKDHNh2ck8Gw3wdu-y5l0EYZaAWaAcU3gy7YC5yW8ASj_dmBzt7wLeoKI8xvNeJ8fbMAfIJpLH0H_8DDIPe1J/s1680/ace_12sep_annual.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1122" data-original-width="1680" height="428" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgCVdqq7ooFSdQHt5L0e3pJZKfuQ-crbop3plJjPxIp1ePh_0jPn1yPUlfXu2HatswbiURHXeePkTRwr2iBmSytxiUJgJk5JI8EtbTWyO2GKDHNh2ck8Gw3wdu-y5l0EYZaAWaAcU3gy7YC5yW8ASj_dmBzt7wLeoKI8xvNeJ8fbMAfIJpLH0H_8DDIPe1J/w640-h428/ace_12sep_annual.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div><div><ul><li><a href="https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/atlantic/">Visit the Tropical Atlantic Headquarters.</a></li><li><a href="http://groups.google.com/group/tropatlan/subscribe">Subscribe to get these updates emailed to you.</a></li><li>Follow me on <a href="https://bsky.app/profile/bmcnoldy.bsky.social">Bluesky</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy">X</a></li></ul></div></div>Brian McNoldyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04715111761592171629noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2293694965190434637.post-5006464402324948052023-09-09T17:37:00.000-04:002023-09-09T17:37:20.506-04:00Watching Hurricane Lee and TS Margot heading into peak week of hurricane season<img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYXuyR-0ArNiHO83NLnkKo4QGlXOMwa6gw_GCnu5QT66P9qGGuj2j70r_gb9geHz0irAr-h6tnjLW_wOpPAKdMxlso9oDRMPqAaoBaZX_eDI3RTGpeyyvbObzJ2HUxPUMIw4r6DMM9tM1RAUCHcoc1NGYWyKvqIufv74xrvVCmGyB_OrOO7fl2P3PnATFE/s1478/download.png" style="display: none;" />
Unfortunately, I did not get a chance to write a post on Friday... and the reason it's unfortunate is that a very rare explosive intensification had just concluded with Hurricane Lee. Only two other storms intensified more rapidly than Lee did in the Atlantic: Wilma 2005 and Felix 2007. The sustained winds increased by 85mph in a day, going from a low-end Category 1 hurricane (80mph) to a Category 5 hurricane (165mph). There were frequent aircraft reconnaissance flights into the storm that sampled the intensity very well.<div><br /></div><div>For posterity, the infrared satellite animation below spans the 24 hours from Thursday-Friday 5am EDT. Another interesting and related bit of weather trivia came to life on Friday: 2023 is now the first year in recorded history in which a Category 5 hurricane (or equivalent) occurred in every tropical cyclone basin in the world... see <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/09/08/seven-category-5-hurricanes-typhoons-record/">WaPo's <i>Capital Weather Gang</i> article</a> for details. That's also rather remarkable.<div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUHXu4Eq6IANjv5HwnUUzKxE8DQqca6SRN-SFcBjcF3svrw5NTWjo9a3T-BIFOcIc2I705ItviG3jp2EwazCzp8WCbSEHZQfBcd5ADsMGHatQT2YHjV6_XjwiqhfTItoG1bCJJ5z5NHnZbIyzIL4uZHlzo5NQb3THQ7vJW155dp5AUwnehnxxIkbtriZDE/s1016/download.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="600" data-original-width="1016" height="378" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUHXu4Eq6IANjv5HwnUUzKxE8DQqca6SRN-SFcBjcF3svrw5NTWjo9a3T-BIFOcIc2I705ItviG3jp2EwazCzp8WCbSEHZQfBcd5ADsMGHatQT2YHjV6_XjwiqhfTItoG1bCJJ5z5NHnZbIyzIL4uZHlzo5NQb3THQ7vJW155dp5AUwnehnxxIkbtriZDE/w640-h378/download.gif" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>In the meantime, some moderate wind shear and eyewall replacement cycles have weakened the storm a bit, though it's still a formidable major hurricane with 115 mph peak sustained winds. As of Saturday at 5pm EDT, Lee is a Category 3 hurricane located north of the Leeward Islands and is forecast to regain Category 4 intensity on Sunday and Monday. The visible satellite below brings us back to current time (Saturday afternoon):</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjpY4Dyqx68ot2buyS6AK-fXKcUpyxgWPyAoYfXZY5R1g7h3msHvo0mDbZnl-iZIduXLyRdN_bghBU-AQWT77zj4xqkxYYAhHfipyA1xQxJN8XUCw2BtMvgLjA6ZFkFNwopid7JvUh1MFDIQ-WY_Aa4NkGDdf1qF_oxny3DcFBYc52q3VOc1UKOmvJVg1PK/s839/download%20(1).gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="521" data-original-width="839" height="398" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjpY4Dyqx68ot2buyS6AK-fXKcUpyxgWPyAoYfXZY5R1g7h3msHvo0mDbZnl-iZIduXLyRdN_bghBU-AQWT77zj4xqkxYYAhHfipyA1xQxJN8XUCw2BtMvgLjA6ZFkFNwopid7JvUh1MFDIQ-WY_Aa4NkGDdf1qF_oxny3DcFBYc52q3VOc1UKOmvJVg1PK/w640-h398/download%20(1).gif" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>The model guidance is solidly indicating that Lee will turn north on Wednesday, and the NHC forecast reflects that. It should remain a Category 3-4 hurricane through at least the next five days.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0Y3EcKLP3BCDwx-uvaBMD4OmRB7YCwnrfA_j9mm0Y-NcMeq1WjmEhBSeGNL--SSciIxmn1uSIpXW7ZrLiZLMg4dsMLBF86mXqK4GiORtPJCpmkNKZSOdBJn3LQA3xpfCreZ94p0d62SYXvxL1mzXVwRCYvjL9j2lu_aUfDGscOTI4IXI3gvy2Xt0STL_z/s897/203836_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="736" data-original-width="897" height="526" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0Y3EcKLP3BCDwx-uvaBMD4OmRB7YCwnrfA_j9mm0Y-NcMeq1WjmEhBSeGNL--SSciIxmn1uSIpXW7ZrLiZLMg4dsMLBF86mXqK4GiORtPJCpmkNKZSOdBJn3LQA3xpfCreZ94p0d62SYXvxL1mzXVwRCYvjL9j2lu_aUfDGscOTI4IXI3gvy2Xt0STL_z/w640-h526/203836_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>Then, on Friday-ish, Lee will pass over the cold wake that Hurricane Franklin left behind... and it's noticeably colder than the water it's been accustomed to so there is little doubt the hurricane will respond accordingly. This map shows today's sea surface temperature analysis with some model forecast tracks overlaid. Tranklin's cold wake is the blue streak that the tracks approach at the end of the forecast period.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMlny66sI99eIE6gTSfdSwZw0lESdRAztJJUTdzzvtq0qmO2n_gBvaTsNXybChrYTSt1SLwawcv22d3GnZtoXlXdGKcXU1KDPF_l1AOCFvl2AK1sTzwdue6lsRAooeQtpW1uGAPge7u4m_ND-2-jb-GMXBMoKc41pfXFALk1PU-LATx-tkrWSKa5elOQZi/s1157/sst.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="788" data-original-width="1157" height="436" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMlny66sI99eIE6gTSfdSwZw0lESdRAztJJUTdzzvtq0qmO2n_gBvaTsNXybChrYTSt1SLwawcv22d3GnZtoXlXdGKcXU1KDPF_l1AOCFvl2AK1sTzwdue6lsRAooeQtpW1uGAPge7u4m_ND-2-jb-GMXBMoKc41pfXFALk1PU-LATx-tkrWSKa5elOQZi/w640-h436/sst.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>Further east, and also on Friday, Tropical Depression 14 became Tropical Storm Margot, the 14th named storm of the season. It is located in the middle of the tropical Atlantic, far from land, and its forecast track keeps it far from land. It's expected to become the season's fifth hurricane by the middle of next week.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHNpHUlVHDJ9cqRh2zAF54W_bsdDYmHlR0cnp73sh_mNM1uBru6SROpBzER2TeDZOstgYmQ128nMlKbDjcmCAuRrOPloo0tRYHvUIyy9fvgkoUp0A-70hZOH1gBuoav2mgCHXy8aK8wdnHLj750RPIZGApAGXCWs5Q4cJfR2RTow9b3sCSUHn97CLnUl0F/s1050/latestATL.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="600" data-original-width="1050" height="366" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHNpHUlVHDJ9cqRh2zAF54W_bsdDYmHlR0cnp73sh_mNM1uBru6SROpBzER2TeDZOstgYmQ128nMlKbDjcmCAuRrOPloo0tRYHvUIyy9fvgkoUp0A-70hZOH1gBuoav2mgCHXy8aK8wdnHLj750RPIZGApAGXCWs5Q4cJfR2RTow9b3sCSUHn97CLnUl0F/w640-h366/latestATL.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>Not surprisingly, the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) got a big boost from Lee and will for the next week or so. As of today, it's roughly 130% of average for the date. Climatologically, the halfway mark of the season in terms of ACE is coming up on September 12.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEisaFyWb0tBlhuTx20lrvPzeunhDDQbnMRhcZ_WtVLzFw69n99X5DbQ8im2QAlWQkFkcsYzWZJfGz-yddTsf8M5hc2FiO_xnD4hSIyO8dL_OYimi59CpkJElWzRR4sKz7impE56uHstUzuD6Ikno3dslIeq7nKcJHFFImeoYexA_FGh4cDKvPb7mGl8NAqY/s1780/ace_9sep.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1015" data-original-width="1780" height="364" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEisaFyWb0tBlhuTx20lrvPzeunhDDQbnMRhcZ_WtVLzFw69n99X5DbQ8im2QAlWQkFkcsYzWZJfGz-yddTsf8M5hc2FiO_xnD4hSIyO8dL_OYimi59CpkJElWzRR4sKz7impE56uHstUzuD6Ikno3dslIeq7nKcJHFFImeoYexA_FGh4cDKvPb7mGl8NAqY/w640-h364/ace_9sep.png" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">As a side note, September 10 is the 6-year anniversary of Hurricane Irma's landfall in Florida... if you're interested in that storm's history, please visit <a href="https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/irma17/history.html">https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/irma17/history.html</a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div><ul><li><a href="https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/atlantic/">Visit the Tropical Atlantic Headquarters.</a></li>
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<br /></div></div>Brian McNoldyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04715111761592171629noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2293694965190434637.post-91755053562112478022023-09-07T12:22:00.001-04:002023-09-07T12:22:26.915-04:00Tropical Depression 14 joins Category 2 Hurricane Lee<img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjr6wjnZBjGgvXRixPIk2QlYFMpCVykz78OxTb4P0YlISqahwYoTzOPSNuVtksJhRk07XBc-tPPkmEYIYl9pyzedZGnZyw5xnd0FU3ILzMXJio4dGbvVSx9wYkMwJT9_5r0wZdj75qyxq4yZFPIpFtKkqU65BA47jXJLmm8aFXyF1ZdWfnNjmLR_j8wlEnc/s978/cira-rammb-slider---goes-16---full_disk---geocolor-opacity-100---20230907154020.png" style="display: none;" />
As expected, Lee is rapidly intensifying east of the Leeward Islands and is now officially forecast to be a Category 5 hurricane on Friday-Saturday. Additionally, the easterly wave I mentioned yesterday that was near Cabo Verde has been upgraded to Tropical Depression 14 and is likely to become the season's fifth hurricane this weekend. Its name will be Margot.<div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiu8Unm6nB63jsvif6EQ6Q8OWVsI_Q6rz5z41cFyryTnZPwa8QsE8Mkdtct1HWWzKHg8l305FF8BMlZdUl0IEqjPQmPckIDfSiSM6sFau-abcvSNEltPO6XTKA8zu31FReCe36qGpnewWXwB8D7P9vZFjNCSBqf5vgea9M8s-AHUFgouXy8LEcqq86Kpahh/s757/download%20(2).gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="584" data-original-width="757" height="494" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiu8Unm6nB63jsvif6EQ6Q8OWVsI_Q6rz5z41cFyryTnZPwa8QsE8Mkdtct1HWWzKHg8l305FF8BMlZdUl0IEqjPQmPckIDfSiSM6sFau-abcvSNEltPO6XTKA8zu31FReCe36qGpnewWXwB8D7P9vZFjNCSBqf5vgea9M8s-AHUFgouXy8LEcqq86Kpahh/w640-h494/download%20(2).gif" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>As I wrote in yesterday's post, a long-track major hurricane is a certainty. There is significant agreement among the models that Lee will turn north next Tuesday-Wednesday somewhere between 65-70°W. But a few stragglers from various ensembles and several model cycles stubbornly do not follow the pack and fail to make the north turn. The map below shows the tracks from the Thursday morning GFS model ensemble -- the forecast period of these tracks ends next Friday morning (Sept 15th).</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAVU4A92NV0T34SJzh1Vvy7lmboXstQ7b-PHCW05snmFpcGWmNn5Jb7F_23-Qpqx0HbbzlVlCp2nL9syFXdy_WVmAguGQh71WiXulb-RVEUUSUjMiIhblUWp09XQ-IeY97geU4BldaXHtBOlIHhqQLL3Pb9bqn4-xc3l3fQFHIOIEhvOPOLtS6Ry7vdX41/s2297/AL132023_gefs2.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1554" data-original-width="2297" height="432" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAVU4A92NV0T34SJzh1Vvy7lmboXstQ7b-PHCW05snmFpcGWmNn5Jb7F_23-Qpqx0HbbzlVlCp2nL9syFXdy_WVmAguGQh71WiXulb-RVEUUSUjMiIhblUWp09XQ-IeY97geU4BldaXHtBOlIHhqQLL3Pb9bqn4-xc3l3fQFHIOIEhvOPOLtS6Ry7vdX41/w640-h432/AL132023_gefs2.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>Former-Invest 96L is now Tropical Depression 14 and it's also getting its act together quickly; it'll probably be the 14th named storm later today or early Friday. The next name is Margot, which is a new name on this list... it replaced Maria after its retirement in 2017.The model guidance indicates a turn to the north by the time it reaches about 45°W, and the NHC forecast closely follows that. It has a shot at reaching Category 3 intensity in 4-5 days but will not affect land.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEie9e3Wsl2AFUnzp68X-b6LETA-FVGyLTtyHSe03Z4yjV-8XGaPFprX-cAJ37wZ59UxEcUSRTneqb7CtQbJR43ZJ7nrYyzlHQyXVYNx-ij9GHsSZ3lBVd40xLCKcDDQeYnI2fNJh7jML1gtFv3VOskaOrjIKb6JhOrM6MlIZAtXzi7QU6d5bBVWnNnlhXR1/s897/145232_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="736" data-original-width="897" height="526" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEie9e3Wsl2AFUnzp68X-b6LETA-FVGyLTtyHSe03Z4yjV-8XGaPFprX-cAJ37wZ59UxEcUSRTneqb7CtQbJR43ZJ7nrYyzlHQyXVYNx-ij9GHsSZ3lBVd40xLCKcDDQeYnI2fNJh7jML1gtFv3VOskaOrjIKb6JhOrM6MlIZAtXzi7QU6d5bBVWnNnlhXR1/w640-h526/145232_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>Climatologically (1991-2020), an entire season has 14 named storms, but we're not even to the halfway point of this season yet in terms of ACE (that's coming up on September 12). And just as a refresher, the 2022 hurricane season ended with 14 named storms.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgCGCR0XueAGciWelaOAbxjI8iE26rCji0_Vq_1sd1h-KzMGPoRu6cz-mxYumJ4gHxnobxc7I-CJtWsTTUcWTAks7LrQW3jULHzFtFrxMvV4_VHNKaovIw40Ro4OnZZr9-3twyoqSUZBHzN2GoNlUlrNC5kmufZ_XhiGNUPqtB3xrWYva-og90SxaKz2mH8/s1063/atlantic_average_dates_table.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="531" data-original-width="1063" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgCGCR0XueAGciWelaOAbxjI8iE26rCji0_Vq_1sd1h-KzMGPoRu6cz-mxYumJ4gHxnobxc7I-CJtWsTTUcWTAks7LrQW3jULHzFtFrxMvV4_VHNKaovIw40Ro4OnZZr9-3twyoqSUZBHzN2GoNlUlrNC5kmufZ_XhiGNUPqtB3xrWYva-og90SxaKz2mH8/w640-h320/atlantic_average_dates_table.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div><div>
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<br /></div></div>Brian McNoldyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04715111761592171629noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2293694965190434637.post-39646921409212811432023-09-06T12:54:00.000-04:002023-09-06T12:54:27.140-04:00Lee forms and expected to become major hurricane by the weekend<img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGYd7Ce17zSgIU-EadpCf_ZRpunUwnhNA7oHcCBVOp242ivFrVcv5OtxDNO99dbn1zEuHt6dQJBzU8QpoSOCk_pxINtjULWzW6QnJWuOaGVxTQfUrIEuLjEzw_rzQaSeRcu0Jn_osphThHy9C8NxB-6Lj3Mt14rquOmz3Ar9oREHv-qp7T9TH7DC9JNXvJ/s1197/Untitled.png" style="display: none;" />
A well-organized easterly wave left the African continent last Friday (Sept 1) and was upgraded to Tropical Depression 13 and then again to Tropical Storm Lee on Tuesday (Sept 5). As of midday Wednesday it is nearly a hurricane and is expected to become the season's 4th hurricane later today.<div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhyU2V__kKB0VcB0LjpDC5th_bNY1j5KjbtrASA4fdzyL0kbOZ_8_YznZoH2MnjySqylawaIu5poXrtF-kvcS6pJZWOqRs64l-IcJ6yU1ggR9NAd7K3cbfk0uNPqb11JmDdCbGQrRDz78HCK_jFz4tAuxApawM2oXK_1zKdrNUOxzviB4wfHmIjwLxN_K8v/s1200/anim.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="1200" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhyU2V__kKB0VcB0LjpDC5th_bNY1j5KjbtrASA4fdzyL0kbOZ_8_YznZoH2MnjySqylawaIu5poXrtF-kvcS6pJZWOqRs64l-IcJ6yU1ggR9NAd7K3cbfk0uNPqb11JmDdCbGQrRDz78HCK_jFz4tAuxApawM2oXK_1zKdrNUOxzviB4wfHmIjwLxN_K8v/w640-h426/anim.gif" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>Lee is centered about 1200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles and is moving toward the west-northwest at 14 mph. As of now, the model guidance and the NHC forecast keep the center of the storm north of the Leeward Islands this weekend. Within 3-4 days, there is model guidance indicating that Lee could become a Category 5 hurricane, an intensity only reached by 2-3% of all tropical cyclones in the Atlantic.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinsKUPlNrTpLriY-WtTapitSmlTrjtcom7H3yV01gkMP5CDGNzsAymHGCvuBL9hj81r6kgK3TtCqNsqKtlOqUUfYJ_qxXNQJIIDyI1FQEyspNyYc_YwjubYKu8Hrhf3TM1vCUXrwcoLC-Aomq8GE5hRQC_M8nIDCjODFDGF89cgEtkI_GMBKOJ5omGLQus/s897/145229_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="736" data-original-width="897" height="526" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinsKUPlNrTpLriY-WtTapitSmlTrjtcom7H3yV01gkMP5CDGNzsAymHGCvuBL9hj81r6kgK3TtCqNsqKtlOqUUfYJ_qxXNQJIIDyI1FQEyspNyYc_YwjubYKu8Hrhf3TM1vCUXrwcoLC-Aomq8GE5hRQC_M8nIDCjODFDGF89cgEtkI_GMBKOJ5omGLQus/w640-h526/145229_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>In the longer term (beyond five days), there is more spread in the guidance... as one would expect. The majority of ensemble members turn Lee to the north by the time it reaches the longitude of Puerto Rico or Hispaniola. But some, primarily from the UKMET ensemble, miss the turn and keep it tracking toward the west-northwest. This split would occur late next week, so there is plenty of time to see how these evolve and what land areas should be on higher alert. It's also worth mentioning that the ensemble members that miss the north turn tend to have weaker storms that are not as likely to be steered by the approaching trough that will come from the eastern U.S.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZlnYqj2thybpWR5ienL_g0JIEkJEQGQuIk50zwFQ2DS_T5d6sT_EynHX5SKN2_uewF9DB_4s5e3a7uskQB0xRvCZaHQlZqvMUZRB0f57x3QE3D4-edZ0rYtNdXlBUjL_K0Snb2fgnlqSvMTmeCNmPP5PYcDoda21XbAgFluPVO4zVu_iOknzptj0wrbiM/s2678/density.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1806" data-original-width="2678" height="432" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZlnYqj2thybpWR5ienL_g0JIEkJEQGQuIk50zwFQ2DS_T5d6sT_EynHX5SKN2_uewF9DB_4s5e3a7uskQB0xRvCZaHQlZqvMUZRB0f57x3QE3D4-edZ0rYtNdXlBUjL_K0Snb2fgnlqSvMTmeCNmPP5PYcDoda21XbAgFluPVO4zVu_iOknzptj0wrbiM/w640-h432/density.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>Elsewhere in the basin, another easterly wave just south of Cabo Verde has high chances of development in the coming week, and is tagged as Invest 96L. The next name on the list is Margot, a replacement for Maria which was retired after the 2017 season.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhpMA9PHWyKIFqyixKxOsUjUvn0P21veSlf3A69H0gD2LWf3CytIy7YE2B_sTFuKg47yXju54KrFett5aQRMjjkacGYOgplpbdNR0BJEqxeYZAzuWQxPRr_DJC5_zPVrKd5b_-KqDlq-6JtSjQdWeicDNrf8L3ZsWy1decZZWcYRnxGbAMU_Rajd80CB1S/s911/download%20(1).gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="580" data-original-width="911" height="408" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhpMA9PHWyKIFqyixKxOsUjUvn0P21veSlf3A69H0gD2LWf3CytIy7YE2B_sTFuKg47yXju54KrFett5aQRMjjkacGYOgplpbdNR0BJEqxeYZAzuWQxPRr_DJC5_zPVrKd5b_-KqDlq-6JtSjQdWeicDNrf8L3ZsWy1decZZWcYRnxGbAMU_Rajd80CB1S/w640-h408/download%20(1).gif" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>The seasonal track map through today is shown below, with the storms' peak intensity, minimum central pressure, and ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) contribution listed on the right side. Perhaps because of El Niño's suppressing influence on the tropical Atlantic, it's interesting to note that only 30% of the season's ACE has actually come from the tropics (equatorward of 23.5°N) -- more than 2/3 of the activity has occurred in the subtropics. </div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhO2mCiDrvlW8RXXzc07ye6HWCytFPiMORSQjNlwnPx53Qob5CPcaB5tTOQeX9BYv3dW9pkdRgHQ4-XGWcpbHcH7wGrOjkj47UXJg04LvL5W7-BfiNHrEDbXnUAQLU7zxsnjBHMSGbhqgI-4318YMqcLOoqs7pJotlnYb33114MWD0cX8pHUBJ3I1iHGtvQ/s1875/latestATL.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1000" data-original-width="1875" height="342" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhO2mCiDrvlW8RXXzc07ye6HWCytFPiMORSQjNlwnPx53Qob5CPcaB5tTOQeX9BYv3dW9pkdRgHQ4-XGWcpbHcH7wGrOjkj47UXJg04LvL5W7-BfiNHrEDbXnUAQLU7zxsnjBHMSGbhqgI-4318YMqcLOoqs7pJotlnYb33114MWD0cX8pHUBJ3I1iHGtvQ/w640-h342/latestATL.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>On the topic of ACE, it's at about 115% of average for the date, but there's no doubt that Lee will provide a huge surge to the tally in the coming 10+ days.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjInVccNJj_nLIP8NU-UFb0iF7tFzfhsPTQ-hTweGx-h1c1D4N1ytDDewuB3dTHZFaSvyI1Oe6jHWMFeL9zkNB9xW0EyCJ8bitO8dh6JjJ8jKlyfkeW8ama9HUeIlXyHjG8IJbmxmsVNuULs03OviI5x9aHyGMtccC7wagiIClKWgciPg39lMC7u3OwMnXB/s1780/ace_6sep.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1015" data-original-width="1780" height="364" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjInVccNJj_nLIP8NU-UFb0iF7tFzfhsPTQ-hTweGx-h1c1D4N1ytDDewuB3dTHZFaSvyI1Oe6jHWMFeL9zkNB9xW0EyCJ8bitO8dh6JjJ8jKlyfkeW8ama9HUeIlXyHjG8IJbmxmsVNuULs03OviI5x9aHyGMtccC7wagiIClKWgciPg39lMC7u3OwMnXB/w640-h364/ace_6sep.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>
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<br /></div>Brian McNoldyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04715111761592171629noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2293694965190434637.post-34252594638807988632023-08-30T17:03:00.002-04:002023-08-30T17:03:55.780-04:00Idalia rapidly intensifies and makes landfall, Franklin weakening<img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIDhgD6ORbJMau472X8bRWjixIq2nasoqLI5tD20c14jNiv4WZKA6QNeiNz_PbPGBD4L-1cAot2MEEB0CDbrH-xL4-CJkOfoGWL_LtXEejbGsJ773b6NLpkxAno6EAGpbFRZ9bqfcmzS2qoxNbwSKaHcIfFwBfWxln80ZjzIBYS1YPbiZU9024wtM4o-bb/s1200/202308300743_REGIONAL.png" style="display: none;" />
<div>I unfortunately did not have time to write a post on Tuesday, but a lot happened. On Tuesday morning, Idalia had just become a Category 1 hurricane. By Tuesday night it was a Category 2 hurricane and by Wednesday morning it was a Category 4 hurricane. The peak wind speed increased by 58 mph in 24 hours: rapid intensification. The storm took full advantage of the hyper-hot water temperatures in the eastern Gulf and minimal wind shear.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBqH_AzrQoJoFYa4zoM-I0rSpmD0lehGgPQ-ae-TIflZezxqO-O68voEzhbMFw5xGMxIttbLYjeou-hwRPPx9SyJtrbVFqAzXGiqVFDiwk3UT-l1bleNXAWF9FaDFzzgaFgLlOV9uXogBDl8Yem6U04xVYoclBju3Ecqri4urZlpbDlwciO4yQ7YYP6X1n/s864/Idalia_29-30Aug23_KTLH_sm.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="529" data-original-width="864" height="392" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBqH_AzrQoJoFYa4zoM-I0rSpmD0lehGgPQ-ae-TIflZezxqO-O68voEzhbMFw5xGMxIttbLYjeou-hwRPPx9SyJtrbVFqAzXGiqVFDiwk3UT-l1bleNXAWF9FaDFzzgaFgLlOV9uXogBDl8Yem6U04xVYoclBju3Ecqri4urZlpbDlwciO4yQ7YYP6X1n/w640-h392/Idalia_29-30Aug23_KTLH_sm.gif" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>It made landfall in the Big Bend region of Florida, and the last time that part of the state experienced anything like this was 1896. The peak winds dropped slightly as it was making landfall so it was technically a Category 3, but at that point it was too little too late. That part of the state is extremely surge-prone because of the concave shape of the coastline, though it will be a while until we know the official peak storm surge values.</div><div><br /></div><div>It's not over of course, as the storm is tracking over Georgia, then South Carolina and North Carolina, creating rainfall flooding and coastal flooding issues along the way. The full suite of NHC products is available at <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?start#contents">https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?start#contents</a>, but this map shows the probability and timing of tropical storm winds.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiMDjvAIsKYzKPjKgZclkCUFlwLX-GL6xgBfTHBDYAg9DPWPX2JQDMgSyglpuYFoP56G5i_oyDUnCS1-LHDUxZvCGLR7nlkMBsZtLogBqV5S6yt0jai-_7dznXsr_ctdtZKfZIBUUT6NR_Tr98JQa2xJWCxL1mG2B7k_Zt7l5w1JQ9T1B7qHWzZM-V8AC-I/s897/151539_most_likely_toa_34.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="736" data-original-width="897" height="526" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiMDjvAIsKYzKPjKgZclkCUFlwLX-GL6xgBfTHBDYAg9DPWPX2JQDMgSyglpuYFoP56G5i_oyDUnCS1-LHDUxZvCGLR7nlkMBsZtLogBqV5S6yt0jai-_7dznXsr_ctdtZKfZIBUUT6NR_Tr98JQa2xJWCxL1mG2B7k_Zt7l5w1JQ9T1B7qHWzZM-V8AC-I/w640-h526/151539_most_likely_toa_34.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>Franklin has passed west of Bermuda and is now weakening as it heads into the north-central Atlantic. It will become a strong extratropical cyclone this weekend over the cold ocean there.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiEfhSllPRjQhRlMee2rqRyxj7zwPF_hwqKTVbQJVdWePiF10VjsUbxE44_ZKcHNBjBNj-nvR21tyw5o1W24EnJXWIBI-Xa29wjewEG0zFij8c2xcRAolENhRX4ZWKJX0WYmBi6iWDA5xJHSbwQa2oGc9ljuWqs06sKPhiOx0s-a11ijPnw7PTv-LWJ69Jq/s897/175639_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="736" data-original-width="897" height="526" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiEfhSllPRjQhRlMee2rqRyxj7zwPF_hwqKTVbQJVdWePiF10VjsUbxE44_ZKcHNBjBNj-nvR21tyw5o1W24EnJXWIBI-Xa29wjewEG0zFij8c2xcRAolENhRX4ZWKJX0WYmBi6iWDA5xJHSbwQa2oGc9ljuWqs06sKPhiOx0s-a11ijPnw7PTv-LWJ69Jq/w640-h526/175639_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>But wait, there's more! Tropical Depression 11 formed on Tuesday morning, though it's not expected to be around long. Ex-Gert is actually still lingering out there and also has a dim future. Then there's a new easterly wave that just left Africa yesterday, Invest 94L. That is strongly favored to develop by the models, but almost certainly turn north into the open ocean. I won't go into any detail now, but the wave behind that one looks like potential trouble in model-land. That should leave the continent on Sunday or so...</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEizMKeVccx1edcF1GBwsc_qEX0chX4lFPPtbcRo1ADoJxvr4_Jo57YSfHsFJZOtW-vcpNxPpHiICQr9Ty668pHoUY8Ta0kzacAd-8OhaR8UQDbiq-qQHHxObSt_gEunaMr6I-JzDDBPrdUsYBK8Op4E9NiCKHMHy83fdoBUs1nHHLkH5n_2EISHQloxvIkx/s2342/summary_north_atlantic.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1529" data-original-width="2342" height="418" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEizMKeVccx1edcF1GBwsc_qEX0chX4lFPPtbcRo1ADoJxvr4_Jo57YSfHsFJZOtW-vcpNxPpHiICQr9Ty668pHoUY8Ta0kzacAd-8OhaR8UQDbiq-qQHHxObSt_gEunaMr6I-JzDDBPrdUsYBK8Op4E9NiCKHMHy83fdoBUs1nHHLkH5n_2EISHQloxvIkx/w640-h418/summary_north_atlantic.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>Not surprisingly, the ACE has spiked due to these two major hurricanes and is now at 138% of average for the date. If the activity magically switched off right now, the ACE would slip back to the average value in just one week: September 5.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgTn0NuEwZwE9ETUjESH3Qb7Z41An88bNOLYsGfxOawy8Gr1ploYyEC30X2uPvj6sEXxKScWJLdlfOMz4ODqMG9-rHSPC8CQFuTUX3qbYBaHE-Y71tVkm76uO4WY40KEVq8DVpVpwctw4BcbZj5a7IAmuKZE5DT3O6QXwt5D1vxx-sAV7_3TaQEFjTGHHgb/s1780/ace_aug30.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1015" data-original-width="1780" height="364" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgTn0NuEwZwE9ETUjESH3Qb7Z41An88bNOLYsGfxOawy8Gr1ploYyEC30X2uPvj6sEXxKScWJLdlfOMz4ODqMG9-rHSPC8CQFuTUX3qbYBaHE-Y71tVkm76uO4WY40KEVq8DVpVpwctw4BcbZj5a7IAmuKZE5DT3O6QXwt5D1vxx-sAV7_3TaQEFjTGHHgb/w640-h364/ace_aug30.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>As far as named storm counts go, here's the latest status. Any way you slice it, this season is well ahead of average for the date.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwNjN74LRgKBPPtD8gdO3VspSK1P8FpGGrnOxdQ7n5OeAXwgDahxgMI_YmJw9Wcn4ojimrQDu0Jnt1JehvMhm6bZYMTUTAv2p3CsoMnPve8RUzo9dPaKSiRA6h38zw-bWY5waTX0NM-xEcRI2t-Qjak8KAMZqI6AqoiSiolD_SRpt4IdsulNErtLhJxyzq/s1063/atlantic_average_dates_table.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="531" data-original-width="1063" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwNjN74LRgKBPPtD8gdO3VspSK1P8FpGGrnOxdQ7n5OeAXwgDahxgMI_YmJw9Wcn4ojimrQDu0Jnt1JehvMhm6bZYMTUTAv2p3CsoMnPve8RUzo9dPaKSiRA6h38zw-bWY5waTX0NM-xEcRI2t-Qjak8KAMZqI6AqoiSiolD_SRpt4IdsulNErtLhJxyzq/w640-h320/atlantic_average_dates_table.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div>
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<br />Brian McNoldyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04715111761592171629noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2293694965190434637.post-13613886342427431552023-08-28T15:21:00.000-04:002023-08-28T15:21:19.858-04:00Idalia to bring significant impacts to Florida, Franklin becomes Category 4 hurricane<div>The two features of interest in the Atlantic, Idalia and Franklin, continue to strengthen...</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbFXMS1NS0-CwKUwYpw8DNdZyuOYpgwzbvCsDOUbdMBLsUD8DoUvMFeI4ESTdnwQv-l8q0sgQVhVAf9s9ICHyWnYTLEONAC9utsCnxj-218vWvgUWaLoYVSIxeV9NaEvJ04DLdzRmkGrEmJqpmm3zrg-igoUFdgIZRDCRdFOsx8b-dbZSGsZkyjoSxnnew/s1148/summary_north_atlantic.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="688" data-original-width="1148" height="384" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbFXMS1NS0-CwKUwYpw8DNdZyuOYpgwzbvCsDOUbdMBLsUD8DoUvMFeI4ESTdnwQv-l8q0sgQVhVAf9s9ICHyWnYTLEONAC9utsCnxj-218vWvgUWaLoYVSIxeV9NaEvJ04DLdzRmkGrEmJqpmm3zrg-igoUFdgIZRDCRdFOsx8b-dbZSGsZkyjoSxnnew/w640-h384/summary_north_atlantic.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>Idalia is just a sneeze away from becoming the season's third hurricane as it nears the western tip of Cuba. It is finally moving slowly to the north and will enter the Gulf of Mexico tonight. It has been affected by some moderate northerly vertical wind shear which has kept the thunderstorm activity displaced to the south of the surface circulation, but as the day goes on, that displacement is decreasing and it appears that Idalia is close to beginning a period of rapid intensification. We've been fortunate to have continuous radar coverage of the storm since Friday from Cancun in Mexico and from La Bajada in Cuba: <a href="https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/radar/">https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/radar/</a></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtHfo2o-5BCmlByXpLKhcNUzQReegsxThBbQuo8k7IybNtzgph0942KSGMl39Fpy5aeDx6ElVdlJsUc5hRcf2_0Pgi59pXtuYSuORuUCSOBpSH76p-A8w3f4WkgjSnElzloalis6wqKAZBPZhlomFjdHXZvzTN7LIka_d7asyMTUTGicBXV6X5XDfoUqYC/s862/download%20(1).gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="627" data-original-width="862" height="466" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtHfo2o-5BCmlByXpLKhcNUzQReegsxThBbQuo8k7IybNtzgph0942KSGMl39Fpy5aeDx6ElVdlJsUc5hRcf2_0Pgi59pXtuYSuORuUCSOBpSH76p-A8w3f4WkgjSnElzloalis6wqKAZBPZhlomFjdHXZvzTN7LIka_d7asyMTUTGicBXV6X5XDfoUqYC/w640-h466/download%20(1).gif" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>This set of Hurricane Threats and Impacts (HTI) graphics is from Monday morning but in the few hours since then, these maps have not changed much. These graphics have been an operational NWS product for every single tropical cyclone near the U.S. since 2015, and I've been a big proponent of them because they put the focus on the hazards rather than the track. There are four threat levels for each of four hurricane hazards: wind, storm surge, rainfall, and tornadoes.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDBP0bEXYx1EnHoc6XtdmsdWMtEE5qC8qKaqwnShadeEwzvcVWwKRWyDCQtK9SdlJtHrp6hVQHdD13ABc3Aoh0PWif5moBl0l4vcYfoaBGzocXwyr4k1YTqpknQfE81kWYRA464E4yrK_MudYvGY5-2NC0zWXyiz5hDB7w9e7kdR-FBujcEpnOLvnpOG4d/s1062/Mon_am_HTI.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1062" data-original-width="917" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDBP0bEXYx1EnHoc6XtdmsdWMtEE5qC8qKaqwnShadeEwzvcVWwKRWyDCQtK9SdlJtHrp6hVQHdD13ABc3Aoh0PWif5moBl0l4vcYfoaBGzocXwyr4k1YTqpknQfE81kWYRA464E4yrK_MudYvGY5-2NC0zWXyiz5hDB7w9e7kdR-FBujcEpnOLvnpOG4d/w552-h640/Mon_am_HTI.png" width="552" /></a></div><br /><div>Idalia is forecast to make landfall in Florida's Big Bend region as a Category 3 hurricane on Wednesday morning, with tropical storm conditions beginning Tuesday evening. There are too many evolving watches and warnings to put in here, but visit <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?start#contents">https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?start#contents</a> for the latest. And remember, being outside of "the cone" does not mean you are safe... the cone has nothing to do with impacts -- that's what watches and warnings are for.</div><div><br /></div><div>Meanwhile, south of Bermuda, Franklin was upgraded to the season's first major hurricane today, and subsequently strengthened even more to reach Category 4 status. As of early Monday afternoon, Franklin had 145 mph peak sustained winds and is still forecast to strengthen... perhaps briefly reaching Category 5 status later today.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhR_nrETO6aN14CB72QnzdNiwdxeCVQ0BkaQZxvB8j_QHVjlW6w0r1iKMuF0pJnHX1wyzTCABHcqW9AY8_MlF1pS-vTccSw_xYYPmi0VEPE0Kfee9sOfp2NBPi6707d_YCMJwfW8HF_3acD2TOoCKitbC0_vFwd_7cAd7lFEDobnSkJqyXdGydsrSk_h44f/s862/download.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="627" data-original-width="862" height="466" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhR_nrETO6aN14CB72QnzdNiwdxeCVQ0BkaQZxvB8j_QHVjlW6w0r1iKMuF0pJnHX1wyzTCABHcqW9AY8_MlF1pS-vTccSw_xYYPmi0VEPE0Kfee9sOfp2NBPi6707d_YCMJwfW8HF_3acD2TOoCKitbC0_vFwd_7cAd7lFEDobnSkJqyXdGydsrSk_h44f/w640-h466/download.gif" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>Bermuda is under a tropical storm watch, and tropical storm winds could reach the island on Tuesday evening, with the storm's closest approach on Wednesday morning. But Franklin's winds are also driving some hefty swells and elevated water levels along the US east coast, aggravating what are already-high tides this week around the full moon.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj47UcYO5-TWCQ5wjhJ6MjpwhTOErUgZffla5FV_nJthwjSxUD6dyfP3NgRHFkWjN7NnV4QZJfg1-IkQm558BN_w3blKBChu5Yslq41mF1tABubBiHKI4NzbNdib85G14F5HK-arpj3Qn-0le-ybI8RV-tmXwSLRoI_FNzp72zabB54XFzawVibtIfLbaRD/s897/174648_3day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="736" data-original-width="897" height="526" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj47UcYO5-TWCQ5wjhJ6MjpwhTOErUgZffla5FV_nJthwjSxUD6dyfP3NgRHFkWjN7NnV4QZJfg1-IkQm558BN_w3blKBChu5Yslq41mF1tABubBiHKI4NzbNdib85G14F5HK-arpj3Qn-0le-ybI8RV-tmXwSLRoI_FNzp72zabB54XFzawVibtIfLbaRD/w640-h526/174648_3day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>The ACE has just popped back above 100% of average for the date for the first time since August 18 (now at 107%). The next 2-3 days will produce a big spike in the tally.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHttv2x03DiC_hcUdJt__GVsG5QGRH-m4Z5wAPAZ7bWgAzUEBgYlyAR4SyvuNB6lacUjFGRe18k70Z_ozMaJJ8cu8jxBBvSnKKy1aZxH-vHU0bSzgTvaDPkcwsS4XH1IpADxL6E83TOgoPMN7dbezUa6v8rdUz5xEPz8HvXoNnresGRBzxK49yBQ9ZpL-9/s1780/ace_aug28.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1015" data-original-width="1780" height="364" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHttv2x03DiC_hcUdJt__GVsG5QGRH-m4Z5wAPAZ7bWgAzUEBgYlyAR4SyvuNB6lacUjFGRe18k70Z_ozMaJJ8cu8jxBBvSnKKy1aZxH-vHU0bSzgTvaDPkcwsS4XH1IpADxL6E83TOgoPMN7dbezUa6v8rdUz5xEPz8HvXoNnresGRBzxK49yBQ9ZpL-9/w640-h364/ace_aug28.png" width="640" /></a></div><ul><li><a href="https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/atlantic/">Visit the Tropical Atlantic Headquarters.</a></li>
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<br />Brian McNoldyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04715111761592171629noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2293694965190434637.post-10198055300477119802023-08-27T17:16:00.000-04:002023-08-27T17:16:49.729-04:00Tropical Storm Idalia has eyes on Florida as Franklin strengthens south of Bermuda<img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigeU09MllaxrQU4ndWJy8K9d3S1rXZq2i4MYvmbF-u_dZzmc4qr7OzDUbpkrRLrQfIlQga1u8aWzMi-ONKcAZ4s750h0KRsrob9dtG2qshAAzglH-EoFXFgQPE4BE9cYp2l-Bc9b0o2PWUYdj6_3UJHBDulF9Yz7qSKJAi40N1Llr3gRh8bf8jt1teFUXf/s1920/download.png" style="display: none;" />
<div>On Sunday morning, Tropical Depression 10 was upgraded to Tropical Storm Idalia, the 10th named storm of the season. Climatologically, the 10th named storm forms on September 22, so this is definitely ahead of that pace. The storm is stalling between the Yucatan peninsula and Cuba as expected, and should start moving toward the Gulf of Mexico on Monday morning. Hurricane watches are in effect for parts of Florida.<div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTk0eoQJ_D2Gaodl7SEI821NDae1E3h7p7fs0Ykwatf-a4t2ljMW6zsaYF5I-bG_os9ERcnX0Y_UPRbkc9YhOSCXC-FLEaN65bhj3ZjptuNcuAAyyU4KaviEXxVPmAwW7aREmdCKzQNVjbPL8DmM1WvETzy1HbBD17-U_yOd3f9n94hdqjYOKyKoGE1YL1/s848/download%20(1).gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="573" data-original-width="848" height="432" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTk0eoQJ_D2Gaodl7SEI821NDae1E3h7p7fs0Ykwatf-a4t2ljMW6zsaYF5I-bG_os9ERcnX0Y_UPRbkc9YhOSCXC-FLEaN65bhj3ZjptuNcuAAyyU4KaviEXxVPmAwW7aREmdCKzQNVjbPL8DmM1WvETzy1HbBD17-U_yOd3f9n94hdqjYOKyKoGE1YL1/w640-h432/download%20(1).gif" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>Sunday afternoon's model runs had the benefit of aircraft reconnaissance data. Unfortunately, the guidance has trended stronger and it's now looking very likely that somewhere in the northern Gulf coast of Florida will experience a hurricane landfall, perhaps a major hurricane, on Wednesday. Tropical storm force winds could begin Tuesday morning in parts of southwest Florida and then Tuesday evening in northwest Florida. That means just two days of preparation time as of Sunday evening there.</div><div><br /></div><div>The global model ensembles show a track toward Florida's Big Bend area and landfall centered around Wednesday morning. However, it's important to note the spread to see the current realm of potential outcomes based on these models. And then remember that a hurricane is not a point or a line, it's hundreds of miles across. So as always, impacts such as flooding rain, storm surge, and strong winds occur well away from the center. </div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZKwVmQbiXtQxr30bdb7tOZ4xY1GQrnf7laIiAHrI_xZeQJlpPQg8aA_3eZLMYX8x_8hrYFD1tmElJTPQs8tBzjFdYHkzOiUiPdOFR1CDO6TWt-kIzDbPemJ5S1pesfSAca-sBTVWjN9swCq4gltI9bYVgUxplAoH3K2ooaWqbmCsmSRGqYPUjTn0Sy5wP/s2800/f72_mean.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1800" data-original-width="2800" height="412" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZKwVmQbiXtQxr30bdb7tOZ4xY1GQrnf7laIiAHrI_xZeQJlpPQg8aA_3eZLMYX8x_8hrYFD1tmElJTPQs8tBzjFdYHkzOiUiPdOFR1CDO6TWt-kIzDbPemJ5S1pesfSAca-sBTVWjN9swCq4gltI9bYVgUxplAoH3K2ooaWqbmCsmSRGqYPUjTn0Sy5wP/w640-h412/f72_mean.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>We can also look at the latest suite of deterministic model tracks, and they include a couple that are on the far southern periphery of the ensemble spread shown above.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMw_XJePQ6wU6Ayrgk122uTW9DXpMi3HjKkY__SbrImDP4rt8xZatH73n1yE_JXWjIFY0gRE0qXKX0BXNPvqQnDMmnu3Rv20xaJff8gPCiKfeYUAzKEYGgZv_AM7QsAW2JMArklLs74eee0mXnUazIop6JBaXtzSjRD6w3EMTuuhBFdO0_PW7RRY5X4zVu/s801/10L_tracks_latest%20(1).png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="801" data-original-width="768" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMw_XJePQ6wU6Ayrgk122uTW9DXpMi3HjKkY__SbrImDP4rt8xZatH73n1yE_JXWjIFY0gRE0qXKX0BXNPvqQnDMmnu3Rv20xaJff8gPCiKfeYUAzKEYGgZv_AM7QsAW2JMArklLs74eee0mXnUazIop6JBaXtzSjRD6w3EMTuuhBFdO0_PW7RRY5X4zVu/w614-h640/10L_tracks_latest%20(1).png" width="614" /></a></div><br /><div>Then we have the official NHC forecast and the track forecast cone. For this, remember that it's a deterministic forecast and the accompanying cone represents a 2/3 likelihood of the path of the center of the storm (using the error statistics from the previous five years). So 1) there's still a 1/3 chance the center of the storm tracks outside of the cone and 2) the cone tells you nothing about where impacts will be experienced. (see <a href="http://bmcnoldy.blogspot.com/2023/04/2023-cone-of-uncertainty-update.html">2023 "Cone of Uncertainty" Update & Refresher</a>). Keep yourself updated on the latest forecast, watches, and warnings related to Idalia at <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/174602.shtml?cone#contents">https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/174602.shtml?cone#contents</a>.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiul1V2qQyo-EBzLSABUkXEzHCZremHBx9x0Ocn9jSJc7KUi0BgdGTVftSFbup_DEX3UXAC3cDfUaDW-Hvl5xAKl_tV6Ley7-a8TSvOjvPoQo1rhtDSgtUZ_NJtGqC3nf3azt5QIK1ur3BmknDw4eG9yYQqeTSwqyB8YxdB1GWLu_hprkO8SNgSP9C0YA7M/s897/210135_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="736" data-original-width="897" height="526" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiul1V2qQyo-EBzLSABUkXEzHCZremHBx9x0Ocn9jSJc7KUi0BgdGTVftSFbup_DEX3UXAC3cDfUaDW-Hvl5xAKl_tV6Ley7-a8TSvOjvPoQo1rhtDSgtUZ_NJtGqC3nf3azt5QIK1ur3BmknDw4eG9yYQqeTSwqyB8YxdB1GWLu_hprkO8SNgSP9C0YA7M/w640-h526/210135_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>After its encounter with Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina will have to contend with it, and one factor this coming week is an exaggerated risk of coastal flooding because of abnormally high tides around the Full Moon.</div><div><br /></div><div>Franklin is still in the open ocean between Hispaniola and Bermuda. It should avoid a direct hit on Bermuda, but the island now has a rather high chance of experiencing tropical storm conditions on Tuesday night. It is forecast to become the season's first major hurricane tomorrow, which is just four days ahead of climatology.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHQIdM0TdLWUt9Nq0_sxiNNrapUjLBbWGMmDKwSmkB-zX9QtlGX-6-XRi46-2iUickasRUe2MjckCapTWjE_XXyyqJd9QVINzwNC_MVA7Wd5Qlc1Cup8T4kZCjWLOZyim-PCfASFfefyBcyFuGMSOyKIIsHM9MdDbQ3R2UXw_U8UkSshie63fcUPiW4-Sy/s897/144853_most_likely_toa_34.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="736" data-original-width="897" height="526" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHQIdM0TdLWUt9Nq0_sxiNNrapUjLBbWGMmDKwSmkB-zX9QtlGX-6-XRi46-2iUickasRUe2MjckCapTWjE_XXyyqJd9QVINzwNC_MVA7Wd5Qlc1Cup8T4kZCjWLOZyim-PCfASFfefyBcyFuGMSOyKIIsHM9MdDbQ3R2UXw_U8UkSshie63fcUPiW4-Sy/w640-h526/144853_most_likely_toa_34.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div>With a tropical storm and a hurricane churning simultaneously, the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) is accruing at a pace just in line with climatology. The ACE is at 93% of average for the date.<div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQwYxHSS7orGwWRcciLu08mvniRCzcDpck4w3FXEui-tZpG8D9F5mxpnfa6zVcNGxiNKnsbkrJ7qBL2nJV0HFNJoS-AO6i_F69ATAGzrkDitNPIJeGkSOCWzIwKjm41rQDK8YEDkbRCeAGWdghfSyx3PEY-sWsdJig-2Pa4Wa1gArmQDrPS3E5paRxgVm0/s1780/ace_aug27.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1015" data-original-width="1780" height="364" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQwYxHSS7orGwWRcciLu08mvniRCzcDpck4w3FXEui-tZpG8D9F5mxpnfa6zVcNGxiNKnsbkrJ7qBL2nJV0HFNJoS-AO6i_F69ATAGzrkDitNPIJeGkSOCWzIwKjm41rQDK8YEDkbRCeAGWdghfSyx3PEY-sWsdJig-2Pa4Wa1gArmQDrPS3E5paRxgVm0/w640-h364/ace_aug27.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><div><div><ul><li><a href="https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/atlantic/">Visit the Tropical Atlantic Headquarters.</a></li>
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<br /></div></div></div></div>Brian McNoldyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04715111761592171629noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2293694965190434637.post-17325115534282132432023-08-26T17:21:00.000-04:002023-08-26T17:21:12.374-04:00Threat increasing for Florida, and Franklin becomes 2nd hurricane of the season<img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRTar_ADSLn1VSsArK7IzFEWSIa4CKyNnC6b4VLLsrOs7GOnFslD-22AkoXWx3O-kL8UONQtbtZNC2tP1xX22G0MPKJFPfX93G22nVnLGkeY7s6yGos_MAXWJdWp_LAxCCXBuYKchZewOmUspMdlHYcwBH0ajETJfu_oXVhNL6l8nD4okCZZb_9zFh_s93/s1920/download.png" style="display: none;" />
<div>Since my <a href="https://bmcnoldy.blogspot.com/2023/08/franklin-expected-to-become-hurricane.html">update on Thursday</a>, Franklin did eventually become the second hurricane of the season on Saturday morning and the disturbance that was over central America trekked north and is now Tropical Depression 10 near the northeast tip of the Yucatan Peninsula.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiF9rV933x6-XorJ2MtM1RYridg_B6LUVP0o26JWDXpiyHtxy7b6dKuhell0CcCcrmOpkE9nfPXhwDfm9s-qbUvAt1M3RfoNdsiwFC87uZpaq28wuPvX6PRt6sIGXrSHFfmTtk6DkUWdt6tjNir7b6X35sXMSsqR8KrT9ZuVU2EDYWB9HxWjQ6njxpm580Y/s914/download.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="465" data-original-width="914" height="326" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiF9rV933x6-XorJ2MtM1RYridg_B6LUVP0o26JWDXpiyHtxy7b6dKuhell0CcCcrmOpkE9nfPXhwDfm9s-qbUvAt1M3RfoNdsiwFC87uZpaq28wuPvX6PRt6sIGXrSHFfmTtk6DkUWdt6tjNir7b6X35sXMSsqR8KrT9ZuVU2EDYWB9HxWjQ6njxpm580Y/w640-h326/download.gif" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>Franklin should manage to avoid land (west of Bermuda, south of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland) but is forecast to intensify further, perhaps becoming a major hurricane (Category 3+) on Monday-Tuesday. After that, wind shear will increase dramatically and the ocean temperature under it will become rather chilly for hurricanes. If Bermuda does get scraped with tropical storm conditions, it would be on Tuesday.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhR0G_tveOFkYWUCH7W6vxr2QQDwo8cqhAFbNSiAWC3pczPLYRTMkYm_wf8Wa5rAIe5g8e8qarT52h56nYHA3p3sdf8TZiibKbESi04tad6U7LSHeKW9dH1RJigCzoxauP7dj6ptVC5jQdE8N-g_YL6QIJFk3Tefca4RARlrNVPabQ_1nzhhuW-x6F6cg8t/s897/204645_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="736" data-original-width="897" height="526" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhR0G_tveOFkYWUCH7W6vxr2QQDwo8cqhAFbNSiAWC3pczPLYRTMkYm_wf8Wa5rAIe5g8e8qarT52h56nYHA3p3sdf8TZiibKbESi04tad6U7LSHeKW9dH1RJigCzoxauP7dj6ptVC5jQdE8N-g_YL6QIJFk3Tefca4RARlrNVPabQ_1nzhhuW-x6F6cg8t/w640-h526/204645_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>The disturbance we've been watching for several days in the western part of the basin was just upgraded to Tropical Depression 10 on Saturday afternoon, and it has certainly developed an ominous satellite presentation during the day. When this reaches tropical storm intensity, the next name on the list is <i>Idalia</i> (replacing Irma six years ago).</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiA8D49ePXpO6B09Lrg96nFu1wvS-BoJJqn5-rQDpvZzqMS9tgtW65DIuXU4XW8Dhv2CkujKNZy_a5qkodOrbXNlofY8yJ9X2y3Ydw3VJbUFI8F5tbdOjEWTKB6jPY28bkwpGlbLZONUGaFJuNF3qM-Jjd8uL7oh7ltQSkkM7pLcYP79_RTDuEpPMIyHcDz/s1200/goes16_vis-swir_93L_202308261812.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="867" data-original-width="1200" height="462" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiA8D49ePXpO6B09Lrg96nFu1wvS-BoJJqn5-rQDpvZzqMS9tgtW65DIuXU4XW8Dhv2CkujKNZy_a5qkodOrbXNlofY8yJ9X2y3Ydw3VJbUFI8F5tbdOjEWTKB6jPY28bkwpGlbLZONUGaFJuNF3qM-Jjd8uL7oh7ltQSkkM7pLcYP79_RTDuEpPMIyHcDz/w640-h462/goes16_vis-swir_93L_202308261812.gif" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>We also have the benefit of excellent radar coverage between Cancun in Mexico and La Bajada in Cuba (latest animations can be found at <a href="https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/radar/">https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/radar/</a>):</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjhPuMLi0k6-yNZOjsxu_rIznf_Hx3WxQxDaKfUzj4C0gxUoBSD1EqK5W7lVIVXadf_g_h06mGRonSIuB2dLw673MroTXsS-hz9qLpaX0LDdfjTmJTA6Z3YOYH__V5mjyjRksDoUNijamy1PhdtNqvkTiNRp4QOjDnn40J-207xYANjwiv0Oygzp-Qmc2rl/s701/Idalia_26-27Aug23_canc_recent.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="643" data-original-width="701" height="588" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjhPuMLi0k6-yNZOjsxu_rIznf_Hx3WxQxDaKfUzj4C0gxUoBSD1EqK5W7lVIVXadf_g_h06mGRonSIuB2dLw673MroTXsS-hz9qLpaX0LDdfjTmJTA6Z3YOYH__V5mjyjRksDoUNijamy1PhdtNqvkTiNRp4QOjDnn40J-207xYANjwiv0Oygzp-Qmc2rl/w640-h588/Idalia_26-27Aug23_canc_recent.gif" width="640" /></a></div><div>The <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?start#contents">NHC forecast</a> brings this to hurricane intensity on Tuesday as it makes landfall somewhere in the northern Gulf coast of Florida. Model guidance has a pretty big spread though, with some models bringing it to Category 3 intensity at landfall. In terms of track, this map below shows the track density from four global model ensembles combined. Depending on the track it takes, notice that after Florida, areas to the north such as South Carolina and Georgia will also experience some impacts (the map doesn't explicitly show impacts, just track density).</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKt1WpwsES4B10ZL9bW7q84Wd7QdVw86XT4TrEglhlgRqJfisyM8GiEhngmtMJAB67JxlXbIRkZKbPAR2cJFnkWMWyRbTJ8zr6wSb8Tm6SlHwV9K5uCk5lSYXFLOAF8g4hcsTTw7C8HG0KXF58CwMX7U7d0qtjUx30VHx2uzj2ynLz9woE7ZzDx1LpOTJT/s2500/density_new.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1880" data-original-width="2500" height="482" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKt1WpwsES4B10ZL9bW7q84Wd7QdVw86XT4TrEglhlgRqJfisyM8GiEhngmtMJAB67JxlXbIRkZKbPAR2cJFnkWMWyRbTJ8zr6wSb8Tm6SlHwV9K5uCk5lSYXFLOAF8g4hcsTTw7C8HG0KXF58CwMX7U7d0qtjUx30VHx2uzj2ynLz9woE7ZzDx1LpOTJT/w640-h482/density_new.png" width="640" /></a></div><div>Keep in mind the <a href="https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/sectors/sst/gulf0.png">water temperatures</a> in the western Caribbean and eastern Gulf of Mexico are extremely warm -- even warmer than average for this time of year which is saying a lot. This will increase the odds of rapid intensification any time the center is over water. Rapid intensification is notoriously challenging to reliably forecast.</div><div><br /></div><div>Based on the initial official forecast, here are the probabilities and most likely arrival times of tropical storm force winds. Remember, it's not a tropical storm yet, so the chances are relatively low near its present location. A key part of the forecast is an anticipated stall near the tip of the Yucatan peninsula... it should start moving again on Monday. A lot rests on where the inner core stalls (land vs water).</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjin7Guvz58VmUeY17pdml1aNKAGv_Ia2BuVcTe_IfpFsPQGVivn2SZGkANBkNh25a4fauMovBk8Ape-0Qosl5S6e5OkStQP0NO35NJctvJ6Mkz6jS6mYBoiSQYfza7JPtlOXJQFXW4IYuKZbnIJE_67WsyHNaTlk4hlPDrEhW4Z7FDcniLT4MaQaSd_bBX/s897/205449_most_likely_toa_34.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="736" data-original-width="897" height="526" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjin7Guvz58VmUeY17pdml1aNKAGv_Ia2BuVcTe_IfpFsPQGVivn2SZGkANBkNh25a4fauMovBk8Ape-0Qosl5S6e5OkStQP0NO35NJctvJ6Mkz6jS6mYBoiSQYfza7JPtlOXJQFXW4IYuKZbnIJE_67WsyHNaTlk4hlPDrEhW4Z7FDcniLT4MaQaSd_bBX/w640-h526/205449_most_likely_toa_34.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>Given the uncertainty, anyone in Florida should be watching this extremely closely and be mentally preparing to start taking action on Sunday-Monday. A strong hurricane landfall on Tuesday-Wednesday is not out of the question.</div><div><br /></div><div>Since this will inevitably come up, "I" storms are indeed the most frequently retired, and it's not even close. This is mostly just luck, because if it was related to the time of year, then "H" and "J" storms should be pretty high too (or "G" and "K" for that matter), and they're not. Of the 13 "I" storms that have been retired over the past 70 years, 7 of them have been just in the last 14 years (Ike, Igor, Irene, Ingrid, Irma, Ida, Ian). Let's hope we don't have a reason to add Idalia to the list.<br /><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgW2aZzFMh2txyFcMKh6gBM3q7t5puIkzZM0UamcCDhWCDvyx09KrfLROTI2sQ5tUIRyNMref9k2O-A8Hsf_3BVlYFRakhPcD_-9qdbdU3pEehF-a2OcGELzaNJAWLf511zSUmrwkQ4sDx0y8epw8EIVyiEFVERNG68Wo4F_omUPn5pz7FZQu2x9qY5qcO-/s1332/retired_by_letter.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="864" data-original-width="1332" height="416" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgW2aZzFMh2txyFcMKh6gBM3q7t5puIkzZM0UamcCDhWCDvyx09KrfLROTI2sQ5tUIRyNMref9k2O-A8Hsf_3BVlYFRakhPcD_-9qdbdU3pEehF-a2OcGELzaNJAWLf511zSUmrwkQ4sDx0y8epw8EIVyiEFVERNG68Wo4F_omUPn5pz7FZQu2x9qY5qcO-/w640-h416/retired_by_letter.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><div><br />
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<br /></div></div></div>Brian McNoldyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04715111761592171629noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2293694965190434637.post-11174248730662261802023-08-24T14:54:00.001-04:002023-08-24T14:54:58.774-04:00Franklin expected to become a hurricane, potential Gulf activity early next weekSince my previous update on Monday, Emily and Gert dissipated, Harold formed and quickly raced into Texas and dissipated, and Franklin crossed Hispaniola. Today, we are watching Franklin, a disturbance that has good chances of developing in the Gulf of Mexico early next week, the remnants of Emily, and a disturbance west of Cabo Verde.<div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgAwWBoedRcmIELpzGgFG7ZXKg_Aumn2JePSV0EiLtYKRwyJZ6myuvWyY6vIhEAu3dj_dIZpaVbWSPa51xRgOjQQ85PH8jbt-XaMUL6eVEjmZ7VLYFRREDq-vqEUW-0GlCI_VNtN1631rs5BddbRjqU-m4CkVbqc2WHNOpO8aKR0fEBlQ3ugRCUWIBEdzOL/s1050/GOES16_1km_vis_202308241715_6.50_39.25_-99.25_-31.00_vis1_hgwy_warn_weathernerds.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="605" data-original-width="1050" height="368" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgAwWBoedRcmIELpzGgFG7ZXKg_Aumn2JePSV0EiLtYKRwyJZ6myuvWyY6vIhEAu3dj_dIZpaVbWSPa51xRgOjQQ85PH8jbt-XaMUL6eVEjmZ7VLYFRREDq-vqEUW-0GlCI_VNtN1631rs5BddbRjqU-m4CkVbqc2WHNOpO8aKR0fEBlQ3ugRCUWIBEdzOL/w640-h368/GOES16_1km_vis_202308241715_6.50_39.25_-99.25_-31.00_vis1_hgwy_warn_weathernerds.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>I labeled the features on the satellite image above, and among the five of them, only Gert is not a consideration in the coming days. Emily could make a comeback, Franklin will likely become the second hurricane of the season, 92L and what I'm calling future-93L have medium chances of development in the next few days. For the sake of brevity, I will limit today's update to just the two westernmost systems: the one over central America and Franklin.</div><div><br /></div><div>Franklin passed directly over Hispaniola on Wednesday, never losing tropical storm status. Now the forecast brings it northward toward Bermuda, but it should pass safely west of the island on Monday into Tuesday. Only the easternmost model outliers bring Franklin close enough to cause notable impacts. However, since it's forecast to be nearly a Category 3 hurricane at the time, Bermuda needs to be paying close attention to any eastward shifts in the forecast track. If tropical storm conditions do reach the island, they would begin Monday morning. (Bermuda is the black speck in the top-center of the satellite animation below)</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhVlASXGziqhgHVhcY-gTU7SS6i_Q-PYBD7ZPcblfwmrdXCnicM-KRpOB1VvS5_ZChlS2jBsqX0PI5sMNaTt6lgzvuXCKhotO9SUw69UVXI_cETmyOZE6FI0aPXepAtL14QIlVv43cgTZP7HaN51i1XfDeJCcQGKgpi1OF1cT3NZ_h_vxdgqiZvsKzM5779/s1050/58703477.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="780" data-original-width="1050" height="476" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhVlASXGziqhgHVhcY-gTU7SS6i_Q-PYBD7ZPcblfwmrdXCnicM-KRpOB1VvS5_ZChlS2jBsqX0PI5sMNaTt6lgzvuXCKhotO9SUw69UVXI_cETmyOZE6FI0aPXepAtL14QIlVv43cgTZP7HaN51i1XfDeJCcQGKgpi1OF1cT3NZ_h_vxdgqiZvsKzM5779/w640-h476/58703477.gif" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>Now on to the system over central America. As of early Thursday afternoon, it has not been tagged as an Invest yet, but the next in line is 93L. That also means we don't yet have the full suite of model guidance available for it, but we can use the global models and their ensembles for now.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7Zm6bxA6oPwtt85ktd1V5_PvEBe43mMbYni74D4ZxSpuYdiubbUa1kX3K11YqSIOFuYK2yW56CHocpkxkHccx_hXuLqZuAipsk0jp4bqQ0k2gfXIl4qRZ1wsvxuFe1JwVgsDwBQMP6n08uKOi2rDRuQqJ4GTT8IrF_P7c_YP1kJIgX-MweTjpCGQLzyde/s1050/58703477%20(1).gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="780" data-original-width="1050" height="476" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7Zm6bxA6oPwtt85ktd1V5_PvEBe43mMbYni74D4ZxSpuYdiubbUa1kX3K11YqSIOFuYK2yW56CHocpkxkHccx_hXuLqZuAipsk0jp4bqQ0k2gfXIl4qRZ1wsvxuFe1JwVgsDwBQMP6n08uKOi2rDRuQqJ4GTT8IrF_P7c_YP1kJIgX-MweTjpCGQLzyde/w640-h476/58703477%20(1).gif" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>This has plenty of model support for crossing into the western Caribbean on Friday, then slowly oozing its way north into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Monday morning. Then there's a bit of spread in track forecasts... from south Florida up to the Florida panhandle. As of now, there's no guidance to indicate a hurricane threat, but given the <a href="https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/sectors/sst/gulf0.png">super-warm water temperatures in the eastern Gulf</a>, it's too soon to discount that possibility.</div><div><br /></div><div>Between the European and American deterministic and ensemble models, the European is decidedly more bullish with this... the ensemble spread is shown below, where each L represents the low pressure center from an ensemble member. You definitely don't want to extract any details from this, but it's useful to see the spread in track and intensity, then importantly, to compare this to future cycles to see the trends.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi_uNEbf4o5iN1GR5zGiA7tQv6Id9vIEIwM4x0RuoVBJwKEQ2l9SjwBuj6VatIebOK7JI9Qt-9S6KhEBhjpB5ippUtNQ6kHPuScVGo6xwBE-XxHo96TlHFlzkZivgDCXmJKDEAGcT40TxX2JALLMbKE8Kj9eoWvh70UWo2OOjn-9ueEwTg_odEF5_D7n9_8/s750/94125172.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="700" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi_uNEbf4o5iN1GR5zGiA7tQv6Id9vIEIwM4x0RuoVBJwKEQ2l9SjwBuj6VatIebOK7JI9Qt-9S6KhEBhjpB5ippUtNQ6kHPuScVGo6xwBE-XxHo96TlHFlzkZivgDCXmJKDEAGcT40TxX2JALLMbKE8Kj9eoWvh70UWo2OOjn-9ueEwTg_odEF5_D7n9_8/w598-h640/94125172.gif" width="598" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>Should this become a tropical storm, the next name on the list is Idalia, which replaces Irma (retired after 2017). Last year's "I" storm (Ian) also came from the western Caribbean and headed for the west coast of the Florida peninsula, but mercifully as of now there is zero indication of anything like that happening this time around.</div><div><br /></div><div>The recent flurry of activity has been so minimal that it actually generated less ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) than what happens climatologically! It's at about 91% of average for the date, and slipping further behind the average each day. That could start reversing if Franklin becomes a strong hurricane for a few days.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9WtCl7u-tFt6PtBtN0ELO1v9-m6L0PusNDED1SCEf9mi_3zpYyQL4enmphwQR3dCdPzrS2lv3kBGN4Y2DcC3Jd5nueLeE7DFDOnkdIwLVH_5_UYXwepkSMNSkZDzSR8s2BdCVow_x-MUWD57A-ziBeNR08l8BKgvuJqYxAwdoZNaJnH7uBXSWZz4Rpcte/s1780/ace_aug24.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1015" data-original-width="1780" height="364" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9WtCl7u-tFt6PtBtN0ELO1v9-m6L0PusNDED1SCEf9mi_3zpYyQL4enmphwQR3dCdPzrS2lv3kBGN4Y2DcC3Jd5nueLeE7DFDOnkdIwLVH_5_UYXwepkSMNSkZDzSR8s2BdCVow_x-MUWD57A-ziBeNR08l8BKgvuJqYxAwdoZNaJnH7uBXSWZz4Rpcte/w640-h364/ace_aug24.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>
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</ul>
<br /></div>Brian McNoldyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04715111761592171629noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2293694965190434637.post-84976315641224613142023-08-21T17:59:00.000-04:002023-08-21T17:59:50.877-04:00Emily, Franklin, Gert, and soon-to-be Harold bring the Atlantic to life<div>In a surge of activity, nearly every area of interest over the past few days has become a tropical cyclone or is about to. Since Saturday's post, TD6 became TS Gert, Invest 98L became TS Emily, Invest 90L became TS Franklin, Invest 91L became TD 9, and the easterly wave near Cabo Verde is now Invest 92L. You have every right to be confused.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvTdo5zNAqVk02rR5vVGF3vaNySGe_RQprQhlcGulaG4ubTmI6QIB80hj-OH9c23pYi63eXTrByhPmryaVktu3fq9JSKiBB0572Yg5V3td-qZDRG41xUUb0SHVSfjwJCdudMfYOl83hHyv0shbH0SUbyF5QmS17Ln9n_d4qntt4tCYY4ZirKxM0-3cbWNu/s2342/summary_north_atlantic.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1529" data-original-width="2342" height="418" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvTdo5zNAqVk02rR5vVGF3vaNySGe_RQprQhlcGulaG4ubTmI6QIB80hj-OH9c23pYi63eXTrByhPmryaVktu3fq9JSKiBB0572Yg5V3td-qZDRG41xUUb0SHVSfjwJCdudMfYOl83hHyv0shbH0SUbyF5QmS17Ln9n_d4qntt4tCYY4ZirKxM0-3cbWNu/w640-h418/summary_north_atlantic.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>While that is a long list, it will be easy to knock a few out right away. TS Emily dissipated on Monday morning, and Gert is barely clinging to tropical depression status and will dissipate shortly. The wave near Cabo Verde is not too close to development today, so for this update I'll just mention it but not go into any depth.</div><div><br /></div><div>Moving on to Tropical Storm Franklin... on Monday afternoon it is located in the Caribbean Sea roughly 300 miles south of Hispaniola and about to make a turn toward the north. That will bring it to Hispaniola on Wednesday; tropical storm warnings are in place and as always in mountainous areas, heavy rainfall is a significant concern (this includes Puerto Rico).</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgs5l490oTnR3C8gxe9ZpO5PYeCWHMwYVVfri39Tuw3bKuEjCcQwy1_XhNHG1MozG-lY6gsVhTQbp3ohO9T09YedRE6H_ObbQsTfJJ35DBCClJC6HWXqhsaHgEoe8BnqN6rsx1TGZ56q1CM9FqguBuyOmuclUgQS9SIFeIy9l78JSt7MOXv1Pcgr4Wvs06r/s813/download.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="503" data-original-width="813" height="396" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgs5l490oTnR3C8gxe9ZpO5PYeCWHMwYVVfri39Tuw3bKuEjCcQwy1_XhNHG1MozG-lY6gsVhTQbp3ohO9T09YedRE6H_ObbQsTfJJ35DBCClJC6HWXqhsaHgEoe8BnqN6rsx1TGZ56q1CM9FqguBuyOmuclUgQS9SIFeIy9l78JSt7MOXv1Pcgr4Wvs06r/w640-h396/download.gif" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>Models are in good agreement on a track across Hispaniola then into the open Atlantic where it has a decent chance of becoming the season's second hurricane. The plot below shows the track density from an ensemble of four global model ensembles (LOTS of members!).</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJ2lKLSc7Kk2HmLFCp4vO-qDTy_3bihPuSXcAaM4fY6n6gI8XgBLmIPvb7VuKY9IpT6TuiThW0EG4_UfMZACyiI7gMVBxKo70wuBPPE5bu6JaJ9YDkakvr0lQtbxd9zDVSd9_2QOVTiFsAlMgNbUaULwUjRgPacO8aZh9ZvMFkS_IHpASro43u2DBx94ou/s2500/density_new.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1880" data-original-width="2500" height="482" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJ2lKLSc7Kk2HmLFCp4vO-qDTy_3bihPuSXcAaM4fY6n6gI8XgBLmIPvb7VuKY9IpT6TuiThW0EG4_UfMZACyiI7gMVBxKo70wuBPPE5bu6JaJ9YDkakvr0lQtbxd9zDVSd9_2QOVTiFsAlMgNbUaULwUjRgPacO8aZh9ZvMFkS_IHpASro43u2DBx94ou/w640-h482/density_new.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>Tropical Depression 9 is in the central Gulf of Mexico and racing west toward the south Texas coast. Although the water temperature in the Gulf is extremely/anomalously warm, this storm thankfully will not have enough time to get its act together. It is expected to become a tropical storm soon (the next name is Harold), and reach the Texas coast midday Tuesday. Wind and storm surge will be minimal threats, and it's moving fast enough that it won't be able to dump too much rain either. You can view the latest suite of hazard products at <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?start#contents">https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?start#contents</a></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiovM9L0DF_vU8IadkVD6fmsalfd3NhhaCrkpxxO41-fhhJtG-kTFqCKnbemYYNCNAUWK98UJfMaj6HJdJKWz0JJodOawJd4rU5-jnqqW04oaPm9hAuNaQ001KyrskN_yf5YQIRWljTG94hAsXqcKdeKDSRrxsDELeMiNhWLzi9Ov05wvgtFmBPvzkNb5JQ/s1000/floater_floater_AL092023_band02_36fr_20230821-1731.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1000" data-original-width="1000" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiovM9L0DF_vU8IadkVD6fmsalfd3NhhaCrkpxxO41-fhhJtG-kTFqCKnbemYYNCNAUWK98UJfMaj6HJdJKWz0JJodOawJd4rU5-jnqqW04oaPm9hAuNaQ001KyrskN_yf5YQIRWljTG94hAsXqcKdeKDSRrxsDELeMiNhWLzi9Ov05wvgtFmBPvzkNb5JQ/w640-h640/floater_floater_AL092023_band02_36fr_20230821-1731.gif" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>Gert was the season's 8th named storm, and from the 1991-2020 climatology, the average date of 8th named storm formation is September 9. And if Harold forms on Tuesday from TD 9, it would be the 9th named storm and be 3.5 weeks ahead of average.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7m_UrgmoWC1aq6rIRrbdRqMnSFSzekSJE1wn5kdrO6hdy-Vd1DgqdDOEeSdU-L63gRAhB6RpwTzqQYAVaiana0kMeT7eU6NtFzVw8u68gYuh_Xg9sf1G3b-2u9X9BUQjIPJn66CJzmvFN2ze-fvFo1sQafMmuwYwm9F57CqHE8ybEWZuUfQBJ5sZ_cmVW/s1063/atlantic_average_dates_table.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="531" data-original-width="1063" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7m_UrgmoWC1aq6rIRrbdRqMnSFSzekSJE1wn5kdrO6hdy-Vd1DgqdDOEeSdU-L63gRAhB6RpwTzqQYAVaiana0kMeT7eU6NtFzVw8u68gYuh_Xg9sf1G3b-2u9X9BUQjIPJn66CJzmvFN2ze-fvFo1sQafMmuwYwm9F57CqHE8ybEWZuUfQBJ5sZ_cmVW/w640-h320/atlantic_average_dates_table.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) is trickling in from the weak named storms, but not even fast enough to keep pace with climatology this time of year! As of the 21st, it's at about 93% of average for the date.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjdI7dcgivHZwTWAV5cRn3e_XcxsXQ1soMjcOGyewR2ORJcGfHiQsb1OAmcuTpmbt6JobWObOI9DItD8QihBtuoUdGQTrtuywEr8tGp-18qVkMpT6Q40Rd5u-Na5O_Wcal0h7DgPfLhS_YOdIrnjv9_MONIBXBIFOTXPj0_0-reKlLGAA66QszrwZuYXMNt/s1780/ace_aug21.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1015" data-original-width="1780" height="364" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjdI7dcgivHZwTWAV5cRn3e_XcxsXQ1soMjcOGyewR2ORJcGfHiQsb1OAmcuTpmbt6JobWObOI9DItD8QihBtuoUdGQTrtuywEr8tGp-18qVkMpT6Q40Rd5u-Na5O_Wcal0h7DgPfLhS_YOdIrnjv9_MONIBXBIFOTXPj0_0-reKlLGAA66QszrwZuYXMNt/w640-h364/ace_aug21.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div>
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<br />Brian McNoldyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04715111761592171629noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2293694965190434637.post-88719520011921439132023-08-19T18:00:00.000-04:002023-08-19T18:00:09.102-04:00Tropical Depression 6 forms, plus four areas of interest scattered across the tropical Atlantic<div>Right on the climatological clock, the tropical Atlantic has awakened. There are FIVE features of interest peppered from the Bahamas to Africa.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkVjaE8n5o8Nik2m79iQYZ7qFXW7sYD66wD1-JJQH0RhA2JPoVgFVIWWxmYSDJLMutsWxABbzxryWfHa_0R7-ZGlIMJ0k0Q7wu9WIXHaixDLJ76X8bTEQi2LevzLdc8YIU34iMj-_6q-pqcdmQD48cPUUd6ApPFA8BYIdNf__oqcbK5TXAE8Rqf9IW8VvN/s900/two_atl_7d0.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="665" data-original-width="900" height="472" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkVjaE8n5o8Nik2m79iQYZ7qFXW7sYD66wD1-JJQH0RhA2JPoVgFVIWWxmYSDJLMutsWxABbzxryWfHa_0R7-ZGlIMJ0k0Q7wu9WIXHaixDLJ76X8bTEQi2LevzLdc8YIU34iMj-_6q-pqcdmQD48cPUUd6ApPFA8BYIdNf__oqcbK5TXAE8Rqf9IW8VvN/w640-h472/two_atl_7d0.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>In the map above, the current position of TD6 is the red circle, and the current positions of the four disturbances are the colored Xs (yellow for low probability of formation within a week, orange for medium, and red for high). The hatched blobs indicate the areas of potential formation... they are not track forecast cones. Remember, those things have not become tropical cyclones yet and perhaps never will.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBY0mmMqDo_tY0bT6vb3Qnxf2wA5v25-Tpfs2Uy0QZlxELDvbRAo5Ye1g-ZR0KEU_ObtZ_-YZMbssMCKCFZ01RVp7q-fV1IEdr36ObWYFqIkUGgQIG2XrPVybaTb3am_gV1FcfSsrAhHF0hEfi25Pa216bm63cKabWbQhVQFeY6ev-fTYw3SoGElsjqWiX/s1200/2c19ea88-73d6-437a-9e6a-8a525a5b97ca.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="623" data-original-width="1200" height="332" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBY0mmMqDo_tY0bT6vb3Qnxf2wA5v25-Tpfs2Uy0QZlxELDvbRAo5Ye1g-ZR0KEU_ObtZ_-YZMbssMCKCFZ01RVp7q-fV1IEdr36ObWYFqIkUGgQIG2XrPVybaTb3am_gV1FcfSsrAhHF0hEfi25Pa216bm63cKabWbQhVQFeY6ev-fTYw3SoGElsjqWiX/w640-h332/2c19ea88-73d6-437a-9e6a-8a525a5b97ca.gif" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>I'll begin with Tropical Depression 6 which is located about 700 miles east of the Leeward Islands. This African easterly wave developed in a brief window of opportunity, and due to some strong vertical wind shear and dry air, it's not expected to intensify to a tropical storm, and NHC actually forecasts its dissipation by Monday, well before reaching the Leeward Islands.</div><div><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhjVL6yMLTS5wIvQuGbE_ns4DMLeoDI9vAvBoA89gXDUsPiXppwYgq1S52CO0xbTwMDiyXJUvRM6HKHgAelI6Qt9I2eMSmHGKJWFFYxPa3q57t9vYIEXpzFVoefYunPur4T61aR-tbZCbzHSnZy9OR0uApdZMhcc8ZOPhETDDYZUVOczHwdODDt6x7XWFSf/s813/download.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="503" data-original-width="813" height="396" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhjVL6yMLTS5wIvQuGbE_ns4DMLeoDI9vAvBoA89gXDUsPiXppwYgq1S52CO0xbTwMDiyXJUvRM6HKHgAelI6Qt9I2eMSmHGKJWFFYxPa3q57t9vYIEXpzFVoefYunPur4T61aR-tbZCbzHSnZy9OR0uApdZMhcc8ZOPhETDDYZUVOczHwdODDt6x7XWFSf/w640-h396/download.gif" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Tropical Depression Six</td></tr></tbody></table><div><br /></div><div>Now let's move west to east across the basin. The first disturbance is not an Invest yet, but will be 91L. It's a disorganized mass of thunderstorms spawling over the western Bahamas, south Florida, and Cuba, slowly making its way westward. Model guidance suggests it could acquire a closed surface circulation and become a tropical depression once it's in the Gulf of Mexico... but no models develop it into anything troublesome.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhXY_TwzLFchjLzhgAcVCcWg3pOlxfPp8monDW8VLHC7t4cZg8JNfb-SVsVv7VlCtg-o7PX2Fre8_yUDObKbJw21JPzlRpMh10id3fVGb88u52mYSd7k2SLhNtp19BuCyjq6cGJqMQXL7PcG8VI0EKVQrmZzq0NOkT9UvjigTVjxiy1gNSD5dKhsA01ZFnb/s813/download%20(1).gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="503" data-original-width="813" height="396" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhXY_TwzLFchjLzhgAcVCcWg3pOlxfPp8monDW8VLHC7t4cZg8JNfb-SVsVv7VlCtg-o7PX2Fre8_yUDObKbJw21JPzlRpMh10id3fVGb88u52mYSd7k2SLhNtp19BuCyjq6cGJqMQXL7PcG8VI0EKVQrmZzq0NOkT9UvjigTVjxiy1gNSD5dKhsA01ZFnb/w640-h396/download%20(1).gif" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>Given the all-time record warm water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico though, we obviously can't tune it out completely. Widespread areas of 32-33°C water is unheard of in the Gulf, but it's what we've got right now. This system should reach southern Texas or northern Mexico on Tuesday.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMPM6bwjoRrKqJvfg8qr7vlNQGNMaBbidyZ094s8kccxgp3NJdrWcyLWkFNzRrltd8ePxrPH3Lk1daNo26DgI0viGWCmmwY7OuOPCSrv1L0TRY472vmPsNBdUmDHRu5TmHVt_N-xj1ZdfMeRZvMeimPKUdktimLwdDV8N15ykIhP1SGO03yC1njneX5d3b/s902/gulf0.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="857" data-original-width="902" height="608" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMPM6bwjoRrKqJvfg8qr7vlNQGNMaBbidyZ094s8kccxgp3NJdrWcyLWkFNzRrltd8ePxrPH3Lk1daNo26DgI0viGWCmmwY7OuOPCSrv1L0TRY472vmPsNBdUmDHRu5TmHVt_N-xj1ZdfMeRZvMeimPKUdktimLwdDV8N15ykIhP1SGO03yC1njneX5d3b/w640-h608/gulf0.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>The next feature is another African easterly wave, tagged as Invest 90L. It's just crossing the Windward Islands on Saturday afternoon and should continue moving west through the Caribbean for another couple of days. Then, there's agreement among the models that it will turn north toward Hispaniola. After exiting the Caribbean on Wednesday-ish, it actually has a better chance of intensification, and will likely remain over the open ocean.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiANAsb9rTNqtnXioMPm7ylPCL6KbT-bD6JRi_dV2OJc7jvU5E4G2ggDnMPIc8Eyp_oD26Pi-ONEqM9eB8GQ8-RwoBkIviWkB1RUnM4VCbfdu6Wbw5-CBU9MtnTldCDe7x1wQyxdO0nd84u_fUBPHGF2DLpbAGPukg87SePdoA-fcld5tdh-GLpUgveaJVJ/s801/90L_tracks_latest.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="801" data-original-width="768" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiANAsb9rTNqtnXioMPm7ylPCL6KbT-bD6JRi_dV2OJc7jvU5E4G2ggDnMPIc8Eyp_oD26Pi-ONEqM9eB8GQ8-RwoBkIviWkB1RUnM4VCbfdu6Wbw5-CBU9MtnTldCDe7x1wQyxdO0nd84u_fUBPHGF2DLpbAGPukg87SePdoA-fcld5tdh-GLpUgveaJVJ/w614-h640/90L_tracks_latest.png" width="614" /></a></div><br /><div>1600 miles east of Invest 90L is Invest 98L. Similar to TD 6, this has a brief window in which environmental conditions will be favorable for development. After the next few days, wind shear should increase substantially and be the demise of whatever this becomes by then. The track forecasts in model guidance generally turn it north by the time it reaches 50-55°W.</div><div><br /></div><div>And finally, 1200 miles east-southeast of Invest 98L is a new African easterly wave. It's also battling a hostile environment and has pretty minimal chances of development in the coming week, but we'll want to watch it. So, even though the map looks extremely active overall, only a couple of the disturbances could end up as named tropical storms.</div><div><br /></div><div>It's too soon to know if any of these will become tropical storms, or in what order, but the next few names on this year's list are Emily, Franklin, Gert, Harold, and Idalia. Harold and Idalia are new names on this list, replacing Harvey and Irma from six years ago. Relative to the 1991-2020 climatology, this year's Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) just crossed below the average today for the first time all season.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbWg01cnoxQTGuAFnm2OYg0iwecDE8eNmOxBxPjTz6bvQrc_cLHJGI8TASGrabN3tDRZRo_EmPd3pCcShxtKl9kx9Kumr9D8HXs8ZAz45aqyvla44Y8m8m_5wUsFFYtLMrFREHVpO6JXg5l4-QCPiBItUYV61xvn3MH4T5UvjX4ps2USuT7UQFOnodIzoK/s1780/ace_aug19.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1015" data-original-width="1780" height="364" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbWg01cnoxQTGuAFnm2OYg0iwecDE8eNmOxBxPjTz6bvQrc_cLHJGI8TASGrabN3tDRZRo_EmPd3pCcShxtKl9kx9Kumr9D8HXs8ZAz45aqyvla44Y8m8m_5wUsFFYtLMrFREHVpO6JXg5l4-QCPiBItUYV61xvn3MH4T5UvjX4ps2USuT7UQFOnodIzoK/w640-h364/ace_aug19.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div>
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<br />Brian McNoldyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04715111761592171629noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2293694965190434637.post-73988513160005389652023-07-21T09:25:00.000-04:002023-07-21T09:25:13.721-04:00Watching a disturbance in the deep tropics while Don spins in the north-central Atlantic<img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgRQ9NnjOTECPeI-7uyx0sBF18fpie12jUnoJx9op538pnMWQTNb0IiYU9obM4h4tM2b4uEl5O9vlm7YUiia4MvS_LEinVQFUlzkW1j1hpboVRhlABfkTIDbzaag-n-kl1NR-C7yAIlM-CixHBKu4cPzL5Yj4uVwr1le4RTAC4o5Jy7smQvHsbVosVsHxVF/s320/20232021220_GOES16-ABI-FL-GEOCOLOR-AL052023-1000x1000.jpg" style="display: none;" />
<div>I didn't initiate a thread of blog posts on Don when it first formed last Friday. It's been a lackluster middle-of-nowhere storm that really didn't warrant paragraphs of writing. But, it's not going away, and it is the fourth-earliest fifth* named storm on record. Using the past 50 years (1973-2022) as the baseline, Don formed 45 days before the average date of fifth storm formation!</div><div><br /></div><i><span style="color: #444444;">[* Here's a technicality if you're interested. The National Hurricane Center retroactively identified a subtropical storm back in mid-January. Even though it didn't receive an actual name, since it occurred in 2023 it does technically count as a named storm this year. My preference would be to count it as a late-comer to the 2022 season, but alas...]</span></i><div><br /></div><div>Don is a mid-range tropical storm located between Bermuda and the Azores and is not expected to affect land in its future. It is just about to complete a large week-long loop before heading north into cooler water and dissipating near Newfoundland early next week.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyOEOGLbtZePYCvBJrZTcjOHY5DAxGMK0K2aFSr4to7Kpo-uO2VY72dwbqj18FlXXmjD0DL1qiyu5bvioG-2j1qHWXTnTWIOfkHPUXXGxlGoT0jNwNjpAP0phfJaBD-LkBdIHZ6UB7viB76FODo1EP6T89OGjUqz4WoSYL6CjIBKPKjIdWszpLyIMs-onQ/s1050/latestATL.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="600" data-original-width="1050" height="366" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyOEOGLbtZePYCvBJrZTcjOHY5DAxGMK0K2aFSr4to7Kpo-uO2VY72dwbqj18FlXXmjD0DL1qiyu5bvioG-2j1qHWXTnTWIOfkHPUXXGxlGoT0jNwNjpAP0phfJaBD-LkBdIHZ6UB7viB76FODo1EP6T89OGjUqz4WoSYL6CjIBKPKjIdWszpLyIMs-onQ/w640-h366/latestATL.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>You probably noticed Invest 95L on the track map above. That is an easterly wave that exited the African coast on Monday the 17th and is now centered about 1300 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. The National Hurricane Center is giving it a <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/xgtwo/atl/202307211128/two_atl_7d1.png">40% probability</a> of development within a week as it heads west across the deep tropics. </div><div><br /></div><div>In this satellite animation, Invest 95L is the feature in the middle... but I also overlaid contours of the sea surface temperature -- the ocean is VERY warm ahead of it and those ocean temperatures are certainly relevant. Much of the Atlantic is <a href="https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/sectors/ssta/atlan0.png">anomalously warm</a>, and this region is no exception. Those anomalies are expanding the favorable areas for development for this time of year, and making areas that normally would already be favorable even more so.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6yThxnnpulOe97wghCfr4cF_KS8icuXRjEMSZnJ_XEY5AfUeCCKlCeRR7CmbzPLzlE99Qj8Ifs22_fJbUc8Hefp16Oe1bBpQWswkIpccuBRopq2m_MWbe28jSuiyZ6JC9YVjD5yzKS3oyzjv7w8FqVb-7uInEUfMpQz_u44bYYjRYx6h5XmMdzZaQhqp-/s1050/23818451.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="642" data-original-width="1050" height="392" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6yThxnnpulOe97wghCfr4cF_KS8icuXRjEMSZnJ_XEY5AfUeCCKlCeRR7CmbzPLzlE99Qj8Ifs22_fJbUc8Hefp16Oe1bBpQWswkIpccuBRopq2m_MWbe28jSuiyZ6JC9YVjD5yzKS3oyzjv7w8FqVb-7uInEUfMpQz_u44bYYjRYx6h5XmMdzZaQhqp-/w640-h392/23818451.gif" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>The disturbance does have some dry, dusty Saharan air to contend with in the coming days, so the intensity forecast is not straightforward. However, model guidance generally indicates it will reach the Lesser Antilles around Tuesday at tropical storm intensity or possibly Category 1 hurricane. (On the intensity chart, you can disregard the gray one ("SHIPS") as that is a statistical-dynamical model that assumes the system is already a tropical cyclone. Since it is not, it's getting an artificial boost there. However, qualitatively, that forecast does indicate a favorable environment for intensification.)</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJH3pRnjr5q5SxOZOkcAf-jsZEIRLFPnvqxA-pgT0PtFbCMfTqskIY8I6I3XxqulaULnxvYlkWzdEEhERdzuJHvPSGygQvMt5Sr-6qWF5IGSM1kSZlsUp5efMqo4YJc33lNOJ5h-5lV7rJxgB3uzlUXlG_5mdpfZ2SCfVW7uclkHhFAFJrb3aPQk0QfTfi/s2654/AL952023_models.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2654" data-original-width="1889" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJH3pRnjr5q5SxOZOkcAf-jsZEIRLFPnvqxA-pgT0PtFbCMfTqskIY8I6I3XxqulaULnxvYlkWzdEEhERdzuJHvPSGygQvMt5Sr-6qWF5IGSM1kSZlsUp5efMqo4YJc33lNOJ5h-5lV7rJxgB3uzlUXlG_5mdpfZ2SCfVW7uclkHhFAFJrb3aPQk0QfTfi/w456-h640/AL952023_models.png" width="456" /></a></div><br /><div>Beyond then, it will be in the Caribbean and will encounter stronger vertical wind shear... but how strong will the storm be by then? Should this end up developing into a tropical storm, the next name on the list is Emily.</div><div><br /></div><div>As far as the seasonal update on Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) goes, 2023 is at about 220% of average for the date, again using the past fifty years as the climatological baseline.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh12ubI7YdoxbhmUp3e5OHSJuumL3dheX3SXIw4Phitp_sXyz0DW8xYpxxNz7hKzmtoxFnnpyqLC0dOuLs0cfViGKORH_bLZ_h3M07bNtp8SlcNVoOcM0afCtRMoc_OumYmUzmJggpfph0uLM071TfXUi9zU3TttA8nKTJsSAj3il9dL1CDkCDYnFESqYHW/s1780/ace_jul21.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1015" data-original-width="1780" height="364" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh12ubI7YdoxbhmUp3e5OHSJuumL3dheX3SXIw4Phitp_sXyz0DW8xYpxxNz7hKzmtoxFnnpyqLC0dOuLs0cfViGKORH_bLZ_h3M07bNtp8SlcNVoOcM0afCtRMoc_OumYmUzmJggpfph0uLM071TfXUi9zU3TttA8nKTJsSAj3il9dL1CDkCDYnFESqYHW/w640-h364/ace_jul21.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>
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<br /></div>Brian McNoldyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04715111761592171629noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2293694965190434637.post-72490351531770299402023-06-23T08:42:00.002-04:002023-06-23T09:02:26.280-04:00Bret and Cindy usher in a historic day for the tropical Atlantic<div>Named storms forming in June are not that uncommon -- in the past three decades there have been thirty of them. But of those thirty, only two formed in the deep tropics east of the Caribbean (Bret 2017 and Bonnie 2022).</div><div>Having two <i>simultaneous</i> named storms in June is exceptionally rare -- it's happened just once before in 1968 (Brenda and Candy).</div><div>Now in 2023, not only are there <i>two</i> named storms during June in the Atlantic, they're active simultaneously and both formed from African easterly waves east of the Caribbean. This unprecedented event is undoubtedly enabled by the record-breaking ocean temperatures in the eastern tropical Atlantic and the related relative dearth of dry Saharan air plumes.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjzvKp3qHyYe7JEWQlXAzGicaxxSMANO8EThNniqBffPpzV71bqXmuff55egk5OOOEJBlW6tqFLMa5uMPa0vi_Dp1cMyRLUZaD8ls29EEKL0Aqvy_DLzA0IUy9JmljlE_14lk40k6zdX9tMklwa0lvYIluyuyyAASmWMIgb68lOMPMILpgQShBRdQvTyBH/s1050/GOES16_1km_vis_202306231205_3.50_22.25_-70.00_-38.25_vis1_hgwy_warn_weathernerds.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="745" data-original-width="1050" height="454" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjzvKp3qHyYe7JEWQlXAzGicaxxSMANO8EThNniqBffPpzV71bqXmuff55egk5OOOEJBlW6tqFLMa5uMPa0vi_Dp1cMyRLUZaD8ls29EEKL0Aqvy_DLzA0IUy9JmljlE_14lk40k6zdX9tMklwa0lvYIluyuyyAASmWMIgb68lOMPMILpgQShBRdQvTyBH/w640-h454/GOES16_1km_vis_202306231205_3.50_22.25_-70.00_-38.25_vis1_hgwy_warn_weathernerds.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>Tropical Storm Bret crossed the Lesser Antilles on Thursday night as a strong tropical storm as forecast, and is now in the eastern Caribbean Sea where a much more hostile environment awaits it. Tropical Depression Four was upgraded to Tropical Storm Cindy on Thursday night and will almost certainly miss the Lesser Antilles.</div><div><br /></div><div>The satellite loop below shows Bret as of Friday morning, but the NHC forecast (and most model guidance) indicates that the storm will dissipate by Sunday as the wind shear picks up significantly. The track forecast takes it due west, so impacts to land in its final days will be minimal.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJDWIoGRvth4PkKaP3l64jSqwtIc991_fTZoy6P3sEGpzduxGm0RmnvMssiAXnKS87_ePfHaoCoi3C1sT9lp1si485juWRBTYgY3ucr-zRx05MCuj7hfJV_bOrBaO9OHCUJKljdBSD6TmhRH2QRy9fvUy8y9bCpudz1dgL3rDhF7bh5pSMWSLMAXV8IBS6/s800/20231740540-20231741110-GOES16-ABI-AL032023-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="800" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJDWIoGRvth4PkKaP3l64jSqwtIc991_fTZoy6P3sEGpzduxGm0RmnvMssiAXnKS87_ePfHaoCoi3C1sT9lp1si485juWRBTYgY3ucr-zRx05MCuj7hfJV_bOrBaO9OHCUJKljdBSD6TmhRH2QRy9fvUy8y9bCpudz1dgL3rDhF7bh5pSMWSLMAXV8IBS6/w640-h640/20231740540-20231741110-GOES16-ABI-AL032023-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>Cindy, on the other hand, has several days of activity ahead of it before it reaches an area of high wind shear. Model guidance generally keeps it below hurricane intensity, but there's a shot at it this weekend before it begins to weaken again. The official NHC forecast as of Friday morning is shown below, and the track guidance from models is pretty tightly clustered.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-T7nKd-XOZG3VUQPUMZi8FIQWYzfbTUfE5Io8jE2JAL6me_9nHS4Dmg1lUdwrUn3OkCibL2me5LKHGBN4AefJ6FuHjmfd3ifGbCDJAFwdGIGQa741CUs7KybD7s5OQW1L4zKeD8qHdD0t2k87NAn3PPVIvRQu649PZfNINQ0Mn0wBa94k1jZvY7x8ROta/s897/085037_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="736" data-original-width="897" height="526" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-T7nKd-XOZG3VUQPUMZi8FIQWYzfbTUfE5Io8jE2JAL6me_9nHS4Dmg1lUdwrUn3OkCibL2me5LKHGBN4AefJ6FuHjmfd3ifGbCDJAFwdGIGQa741CUs7KybD7s5OQW1L4zKeD8qHdD0t2k87NAn3PPVIvRQu649PZfNINQ0Mn0wBa94k1jZvY7x8ROta/w640-h526/085037_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>Given that these two storms have limited time before wind shear overwhelms them, this will likely be my last update on them. Elsewhere across the basin all is quiet, but the next name on this year's list is Don. Cindy formed <b><i>*40 days*</i></b> before the average date of third named storm formation, so there's no doubt this season is off to a strong start. If Cindy does manage to become the season's first hurricane this weekend, you can see just how anomalously early <i>that</i> would be!</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZfIfjfuB-O7XQSAuGzpEzV2zJ1G8EyiqfaGvMkTnubpyVcBfHZQdtRhJ_xqoXyn9e1-DYa6_yDsWXLSYzb7_q24CXNZb97-LS6TA2V6-fZGNugzrifzVozL7yGmI4pdMJy3PTjKhcny1fs27hvkOq-AzGsqzdJXUSHeKnqiOCGx8VYqjno1C5mriADEI5/s1063/atlantic_average_dates_table.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="531" data-original-width="1063" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZfIfjfuB-O7XQSAuGzpEzV2zJ1G8EyiqfaGvMkTnubpyVcBfHZQdtRhJ_xqoXyn9e1-DYa6_yDsWXLSYzb7_q24CXNZb97-LS6TA2V6-fZGNugzrifzVozL7yGmI4pdMJy3PTjKhcny1fs27hvkOq-AzGsqzdJXUSHeKnqiOCGx8VYqjno1C5mriADEI5/w640-h320/atlantic_average_dates_table.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div>
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<br />Brian McNoldyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04715111761592171629noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2293694965190434637.post-89893261231354061672023-06-22T11:03:00.000-04:002023-06-22T11:03:04.908-04:00TS Bret and TD Four keeping the tropical Atlantic active<img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgq-8exZa8N35rQU0U-eOHp0FDYG04u53AaHKXRnYhAyPCOyCboTk4QlKSBL0USgw_FtU6n_4P9-TvhouTQmAC7DdtFM1BwECzuRbs_qjjp9eUj441eLj1miRD2F2bJlhHZ9yTZQERGTVVL-Mf7TLwDGMYqxB9xHUxbyU1C0I71o7P0adNmKQgHpoJHIqql/s822/sat.png" style="display: none;" />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUVhjMXpR_1wpJQFcUspDq2B516vK_uqYxbE35Wi4Nm-NkieDug8v1YM1TJ0tbtaQDriBOhT500JNYm-FuNtKLTx-ouRmoio1OIV3D59yVnLHR5eOyGAXn0Tu5Q1azZVoJUaCIaWHGn8lp--DspYAkljdId3PxtC6ZijRSK07mwyUxm3VcVZNEt3CRdup8/s831/download.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="428" data-original-width="831" height="330" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUVhjMXpR_1wpJQFcUspDq2B516vK_uqYxbE35Wi4Nm-NkieDug8v1YM1TJ0tbtaQDriBOhT500JNYm-FuNtKLTx-ouRmoio1OIV3D59yVnLHR5eOyGAXn0Tu5Q1azZVoJUaCIaWHGn8lp--DspYAkljdId3PxtC6ZijRSK07mwyUxm3VcVZNEt3CRdup8/w640-h330/download.gif" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>Tropical Storm Bret, which formed on the 19th from an easterly wave that left the African coast on the 15th is now about to cross the Lesser Antilles and enter the Caribbean Sea. Then, newly-upgraded Tropical Depression Four is trailing just 1000 miles east of Bret. The location of this activity is something we don't typically see "turn on" for another couple of months.</div><div><br /></div><div>Bret is very close to hurricane intensity as it nears the Lesser Antilles... the center should pass over Martinique or St. Lucia on Thursday night, though squally weather will of course extend further away than that (primarily to the north of center). A tropical storm warning is in effect for Dominica, Martinique, and St. Lucia, and a hurricane watch is in effect for St. Lucia. You'll find the most current information at <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?start#contents">https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?start#contents</a></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgroZYpgJUlVWVM66Nv8bUiAs7fiKNp6mszHSgdkbtHIno6WRqqkDIM8CB7c8CoFuEUuQN2tR8Vpi4wJIagJVlTJCft6eLGbj7qo8xVPEi3nL4jIaMh3ecd21pAIoC2ijD1aJ6YJWPsZ6Mamh55gG5q5GYfH_kZycbsxSs2vNah70OUL1IzyLxKXCwGmbvR/s897/143737_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="736" data-original-width="897" height="526" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgroZYpgJUlVWVM66Nv8bUiAs7fiKNp6mszHSgdkbtHIno6WRqqkDIM8CB7c8CoFuEUuQN2tR8Vpi4wJIagJVlTJCft6eLGbj7qo8xVPEi3nL4jIaMh3ecd21pAIoC2ijD1aJ6YJWPsZ6Mamh55gG5q5GYfH_kZycbsxSs2vNah70OUL1IzyLxKXCwGmbvR/w640-h526/143737_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>The storm is already experiencing moderate vertical wind shear, so the low-level circulation is displaced to the west of the mid-level center and the bulk of the thunderstorm activity. The wind shear is expected to increase as Bret enters the Caribbean, so it has likely peaked in intensity and will gradually get ripped apart this weekend.</div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbMBRQIakScx70JwJV3MjjjbERSQaFuY9au65_gET1M-NP3mX_nEPlh2CjQvjzSkoXNjr5qCc9WJzeBXZnrqlpJ86J_qC0pcznc9eGpXySPQO3bA2WgwxdQlxlVCAiqINdo6m1-32q4gi3M4XgeQiVJZ-Ds4JBVlowO2nWfEAh6siyXOXHo85cpmrXGHk7/s643/Bret_22Jun23_barbados.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="643" data-original-width="608" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbMBRQIakScx70JwJV3MjjjbERSQaFuY9au65_gET1M-NP3mX_nEPlh2CjQvjzSkoXNjr5qCc9WJzeBXZnrqlpJ86J_qC0pcznc9eGpXySPQO3bA2WgwxdQlxlVCAiqINdo6m1-32q4gi3M4XgeQiVJZ-Ds4JBVlowO2nWfEAh6siyXOXHo85cpmrXGHk7/w606-h640/Bret_22Jun23_barbados.gif" width="606" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Radar loop from Barbados, available at <a href="https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/radar/">https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/radar/</a></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><div>Then, the wave behind it which left the African coast on the 18th was upgraded to Tropical Depression Four on Thursday morning. Although it's following closely in Bret's footsteps, the steering pattern has evolved and this storm will most likely turn to the north before reaching the Lesser Antilles and eventually weaken in the face of strong wind shear early next week somewhere south of Bermuda. It is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm later today, and the next name is Cindy.</div><div><br /></div><div>This map below shows track forecasts from three global model ensembles, ending Tuesday morning. The black line is the mean of all three ensembles. The intensity guidance generally keeps this below hurricane intensity.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgbwxXB8aEy5mjk2IhqF8QxEdMRqBDO6C9Uvw6D8A43RsRRQKREtNA4LCRhnkAnCJRsEtlcr5pF_Rgqt6WV4WLIlPhXh_8K2fNGFRqW_2eQ3YakaOYk7bEKocb4jx6SAlNtzdy-XTnnYbFM3YaCk74ONeOrRrY90-khLpa2zGi0_v6Quc0dnBhOrOzqXKT9/s2800/f126_mean.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1800" data-original-width="2800" height="412" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgbwxXB8aEy5mjk2IhqF8QxEdMRqBDO6C9Uvw6D8A43RsRRQKREtNA4LCRhnkAnCJRsEtlcr5pF_Rgqt6WV4WLIlPhXh_8K2fNGFRqW_2eQ3YakaOYk7bEKocb4jx6SAlNtzdy-XTnnYbFM3YaCk74ONeOrRrY90-khLpa2zGi0_v6Quc0dnBhOrOzqXKT9/w640-h412/f126_mean.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>Elsewhere, the basin is quiet for now, but this is certainly a bizarre couple of storms to be writing about so early in the season.</div><div>
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</ul></div>Brian McNoldyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04715111761592171629noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2293694965190434637.post-71093548890532258712023-06-20T14:43:00.000-04:002023-06-20T14:43:00.125-04:00Bret heading for Lesser Antilles, Cindy could also form this week<img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-g0T_zGjw5UabzIMpSNB60Dui_y8cDdKGmfagS1AD6BjlXnOhVC5aQ1ZZFw9pEI9SCjQ2dt6OjsIlYBqEWmIMODWOYdJRbw6mP8o5XKd97bhEEPhfl_fc2eKGm9Z5ftgzptkoukVMy1APx4M4mt3_n6G6D7nVNelWWkpT8phfixii9v43ZjRcINJquVAQ/s320/144622_most_likely_toa_34.png" style="display: none;" />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhX-5Sqt-ZbYFAq2-tSyOmH4k-uk7aAcdR_hdRu6hxgmKjOzHWSIaF-hncMSMaAPybNlEClcuj5I3LDbeWVA5zgezoW234fi7IqxbKwX5AzX68AQbZYK8laN5_vjvsT7piwD8lEen-xnE7AB-SBW-pQYnFnpLUgrvTqQS_2UcgL3Z-qM2sNW-p4GSYkTjxc/s1050/63660337.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="666" data-original-width="1050" height="406" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhX-5Sqt-ZbYFAq2-tSyOmH4k-uk7aAcdR_hdRu6hxgmKjOzHWSIaF-hncMSMaAPybNlEClcuj5I3LDbeWVA5zgezoW234fi7IqxbKwX5AzX68AQbZYK8laN5_vjvsT7piwD8lEen-xnE7AB-SBW-pQYnFnpLUgrvTqQS_2UcgL3Z-qM2sNW-p4GSYkTjxc/w640-h406/63660337.gif" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>We are still watching two features of interest in the deep tropics between the Caribbean and Africa: Tropical Storm Bret and Invest 93L. As strange as it would be to have just one such system in June, having two is extraordinary. Anomalously-warm ocean temperatures and a lack of the typical Saharan dust in the eastern Atlantic have allowed the Cabo Verde season to begin about two months early.</div><div><br /></div><div>Tropical Depression 3 was upgraded to Tropical Storm Bret on Monday afternoon and is centered about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles on Tuesday afternoon. The <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?start#contents">latest NHC forecast </a>no longer brings Bret up to hurricane intensity, and dissipates it in the central Caribbean over the weekend. That closely follows most of the model guidance, with the notable exception of the HWRF model which has consistently been clinging to a strong hurricane in the eastern Caribbean. </div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3RLgpCjHLgPqlzvoeBWALc6HdkSu6NHb4TJ9KMwNJCrkkmmqIAAPwHgxz2r4468_HB6V-d5c_vBC4QDE-l780uPMHRWKgSebCNbWU8gOkFJlAW0oMoOLQMyOr2JQtlG417iyQFFC7z3KNmBL72zJPW7FVf5dNrBMxORgSYyaFm3u39lvHo-jmPzkBCmq6/s898/03L_intensity_latest.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="898" data-original-width="768" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3RLgpCjHLgPqlzvoeBWALc6HdkSu6NHb4TJ9KMwNJCrkkmmqIAAPwHgxz2r4468_HB6V-d5c_vBC4QDE-l780uPMHRWKgSebCNbWU8gOkFJlAW0oMoOLQMyOr2JQtlG417iyQFFC7z3KNmBL72zJPW7FVf5dNrBMxORgSYyaFm3u39lvHo-jmPzkBCmq6/w548-h640/03L_intensity_latest.png" width="548" /></a></div><br /><div>Bret will reach the Lesser Antilles on Thursday night, most likely as a struggling tropical storm. Wind shear is going to increase quite a bit as it enters the Caribbean, so it probably will not make it to the western Caribbean intact. In the slim chance that HWRF has had the right solution all along, the big divergence in forecasts between that and the others happens on Thursday; if it starts showing signs of intensifying as it crosses the Lesser Antilles, there's reason for concern in Puerto Rico and surrounding islands.</div><div><br /></div><div>Invest 93L is being given an 80% chance of formation within the next seven days (70% within the next two days)... it would be Tropical Depression 4 or Tropical Storm Cindy if it does become a tropical cyclone. It's trailing just 900 miles east of Bret, but as of now, the track model guidance is showing a turn to the north well before it reaches the Lesser Antilles. For intensity, no models show it reaching hurricane intensity.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjd9tdC8KA6OdWmM4FK5F6dJVH-wP1I-OvArnouKxQ-ydyJSenkVYayPSg5o_MzCT0gpEZRPALPLyghB5THUHWIeM1ivLadPd4kTEP6as_BIwsd4619xLpksJDDosLxRg3IV6lX3NsXZuiWXAFTzr3OGxo7eRrkZTJOlRuHuD_Okms3j87iNHq6XKuBR526/s2468/density_new.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1834" data-original-width="2468" height="476" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjd9tdC8KA6OdWmM4FK5F6dJVH-wP1I-OvArnouKxQ-ydyJSenkVYayPSg5o_MzCT0gpEZRPALPLyghB5THUHWIeM1ivLadPd4kTEP6as_BIwsd4619xLpksJDDosLxRg3IV6lX3NsXZuiWXAFTzr3OGxo7eRrkZTJOlRuHuD_Okms3j87iNHq6XKuBR526/w640-h476/density_new.png" width="640" /></a></div><div>As I wrote <a href="http://bmcnoldy.blogspot.com/2023/06/tropical-depression-3-forms-in-deep.html">yesterday</a>, using the 1991-2020 climatology, the average dates of the second and third named storms are July 15 and August 2. <i>If</i> Bret becomes a hurricane in the coming days it would really be exceptional -- the average date of first hurricane formation is August 11!</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiesWTMfZxkBeao1o1YbJiH-PraK8FF5NKgvKA98-iKBPaavw4MDdHS6OZZt4ZxHcLUOce8dl0WF2QPaLimGpwFCnIR-wN-q53vTrYmKsFB0rkQFU9-JIuKzDJ5VBU8DGFXukEsU_X_3doPQjITTPC1nwNmsS67uV1la_aS719wMe3AN8B63xrDM4bT6z7c/s1063/atlantic_average_dates_table.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="531" data-original-width="1063" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiesWTMfZxkBeao1o1YbJiH-PraK8FF5NKgvKA98-iKBPaavw4MDdHS6OZZt4ZxHcLUOce8dl0WF2QPaLimGpwFCnIR-wN-q53vTrYmKsFB0rkQFU9-JIuKzDJ5VBU8DGFXukEsU_X_3doPQjITTPC1nwNmsS67uV1la_aS719wMe3AN8B63xrDM4bT6z7c/w640-h320/atlantic_average_dates_table.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div>
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