05 October 2005

Stan leaves a deadly wake, Tammy forms near Florida...

Stan is now responsible for 66 deaths in Mexico, Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala, Costa Rica, and El Salvador, all due to flooding and landslides.  The center of circulation passed over the high mountains to the west of the Isthmus of Tehuanepec and the remnants are still causing tremendous flooding.  The storm made landfall 24 hours sooner than forecast and seemingly took many people by surprise, although roughly 60,000 did have time to evacuate vulnerable areas throughout Central America.  With some speculation, it looks like the remnants of Stan have crossed into the East Pacific, south of Mexico, and are flaring back up.  If it reforms there, I believe it will be named Pilar.

Shortly after 11Z this morning, NHC upgraded the area of disturbed weather off the Florida coast to TS Tammy, the 19th named storm of the season.  This ties the named storm count from 1995, but is still behind the 1933 count of 21.  As of 15Z, the center of this highly-sheared storm was located at 28.9N 80.3W and tracking N at 12kts.  Intensity estimated from buoys and radar is 35kts and 1004mb.  Only slight strengthening is forecast before landfall somewhere near the FL/GA border late tonight.  For the latest warnings, check http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/143914.shtml?3day and to track the storm via radar, check http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS.p20-r/si.kjax.shtml

Also, there is a VERY impressive blowup of deep convection just east of the Yucatan Peninsula, basically where Stan formed.  One can see a mid-level circulation in the visible satellite imagery as well as healthy outflow aloft.  This has not been mentioned by NHC or picked up by the models, but it bears watching.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

No comments:

Post a Comment