Although nearly every factor one looks at for rapid intensification was satisfied yesterday, apparently, something was awry, as TS Beta has strengthened only slightly. The latest aircraft recon flight into the storm provided an intensity measurement of 55kts and 990mb, suggesting that it is nearly a hurricane. The hindering ingredient could have been a nudge of mid-level easterly wind shear, sub-par oceanic heat content, or a combination of the two. Normally the heat content is not critical for such a weak storm, but it is moving so slowly that it becomes more important. Another element of the forecast that has not been very accurate is the track. For at least a day now, computer and human forecasters have been expecting Beta to turn to the northwest then west in response to a developing ridge to the northeast. This hasn't happened, and the storm is still moving north, at 4kts. This could be a critical error because if it crawls just a bit more north THEN heads west, it has hundreds of additional miles of ocean (Gulf of Honduras) to track over and become strong, headed for Belize or Yucatan. If it does indeed turn west very soon, it will dissipate over the mountainous areas of inland Nicaragua. Either way, it is forecast to become at least a CAT1-2 hurricane. Relating to yesterday's discussion of record NTC this season, I created a simple pie chart showing each of the 23 storms' contribution to the total value (Beta is current as of 21Z today). I put the actual values next to the major contributors (Dennis, Emily, Katrina, Maria, Rita, and Wilma). The names start at the top purple slice with Arlene, and work around counter-clockwise. http://einstein.atmos.colostate.edu/~mcnoldy/tropics/2005NTC_pie.png
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