22 August 2005

TS Jose forms in Bay of Campeche...

From what I can tell, the wave that was ahead (west) of ex-TD10 crossed 
the Yucatan Peninsula last night and emerged over the Bay of Campeche 
this morning.  It very promptly organized and was upgraded to TD11.  
Over the next few hours, it continued to organize and intensify, and an 
aircraft recon flight into it found that it was indeed a tropical storm, 
and was upgraded to TS Jose this afternoon... the earliest 10th named 
storm ever in the Atlantic (by one day).  At 22Z, TS Jose was located at 
19.6N 95.4W and tracking W at 5kts.  Intensity measured by aircraft was 
45kts and 1002mb.  It should make landfall on Mexico later this evening 
as a tropical storm and then rapidly deteriorate inland.

The remnants of TD10 are still easily trackable, now near Hispaniola.  
The wave is very weak, but still has sporadic convection and nice 
curvature in visible satellite imagery.  It will continue to be 
monitored closely, because it's heading for Florida, so IF it 
regenerates, things could get interesting.

Elsewhere, a very large wave exited Africa on August 20, and is now at 
about 16N 34W.  It's a bit far north for the classic track across the 
deep tropics, so if it forms, would likely recurve somewhere in the 
central Atlantic.  It's also lacking deep convection at this time, but 
conditions should remain favorable in the foreseeable future and this 
could become TD12 in the next couple of days.  The next name on deck is 
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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