Katrina catastrophe imminent...

Since my last update on Friday, Katrina has done the unimaginable, and 
rapidly intensified to a monstrous Category 5 hurricane right off the US 
coast.  To make matters more dire, it is headed for one of the most 
vulnerable cities in the US: New Orleans.

The storm experienced a phenomenal period of rapid intensification, with 
pressure drops of 27 mb/3hr and 36 mb/12hr.  As of this writing, the 
storm is STILL strengthening, currently holding the 4th lowest pressure 
ever recorded in the Atlantic.  As of 21Z today, aircraft recon found 
maximum sustained winds of 145kts and a minimum central pressure of 
902mb.  It is located at 26.9N 89.0W and tracking NW at 10kts.  This 
puts it 225 miles south of New Orleans.  It is forecast to gradually 
turn more to the north and maintain CAT 4/5 intensity, with fluctuations 
primarily due to concentric eyewall cycles.  The best estimate for time 
of landfall is around 5am CDT on Monday.  As an aside, this makes the 
first time there have been 3 CAT5s in 3 consecutive years (Isabel '03, 
Ivan '04, and Katrina '05).

A mandatory evacuation has been ordered for all of New Orleans, as well 
as some other coastal cities in LA and MS.  The storm surge from this 
hurricane could reach 25-30 feet, with wind gusts to 200mph or even 
higher.  I wanted to share an excerpt from the forecast discussion out 
of the New Orleans NWS office: 

"MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. 

AT LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL 

FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY 

DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST 

POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED.  WATER SHORTAGES 

WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS." 

The President has already declared Lousiana and Mississippi 
federal disaster areas to expedite funding and recovery efforts once the storm 
passes.  A Hurricane Warning is in effect from western LA to the FL panhandle.  
Aside from the devastating eyewall, areas to the east of landfall can expect 

VERY large waves, perhaps upwards of 40 feet, along with 1-2 feet of rain.

Elsewhere, TD13 has formed from the area of disturbed weather in the deep 
tropics between the Lesser Antilles and Africa.  It is located at 15.4N 
46.8W.  Initial intensity is estimated to be 25kts and 1007mb.  This is 
from a wave that exited Africa on August 25.  The longer range forecast 
for this is to head northwest (north of the Leeward Islands) and 
gradually strengthen to hurricane intensity by later this week.  This 
should be upgraded to TS Lee sometime tomorrow.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.