31 August 2005

Lee forms in the central Atlantic...

TD13 has regenerated and was upgraded to TS Lee today at 21Z.  However, it does not look very healthy and will likely be back down to a TD in 2-3 days.  It's located at 30.5N 49.7W and heading NNE at 12kts.  The intensity estimated by satellite is 35kts and 1007mb.

The strong tropical wave 1200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles is STILL looking impressive, with an obvious surface circulation and persistent deep convection.  This is the wave that exited Africa on August 27.  I honestly don't know why this is not being classified as TD14 yet, but from my experience, it should be.  It's presently at about 19N 42W and heading NW at 10kts.  The next name on deck is Maria.

And lastly, a new tropical wave has exited Africa and is already showing signs of a broad circulation.  This will be watched closely for signs of development over the next few days.

The NTC as of the end of the month is now 110.2%, compared to a normal 31% or so for this date.  Recall that a value of 100% corresponds to an entire average season.  So 2005 is already 10% above an entire normal season, and the climatologically active part of the season is still ahead of us.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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