As expected, TS Jose made landfall on the Mexican coast and has since weakened considerably inland. Of much greater concern is TD12. Although one can make a very strong case for it being the remnants of TD10, the NHC called it TD12... it was upgraded to a Depression this afternoon based on an aircraft recon flight into it. The center is not exactly easy to find, as there appears to be at least a couple of them. However, the convection is very intense, the SSTs are incredibly warm, and the vertical shear is minimal. This will likely be upgraded to TS Katrina in the next 12-18 hours. At 21Z, TD12 was located at 23.2N 75.5W and tracking NW at 7kts. The maximum sustained winds are 30kts and the MSLP is 1007mb. This motion is expected to continue for a couple days, then turn west as a ridge builds to its north. What this means is that it should turn directly into the southern tip of Florida as it intensifies. Then, after crossing the tip of the peninsula, it should enter the Gulf and be under ideal conditions for rapid intensification. If you're in FL or along the northern Gulf coast, be sure to check out the track forecast! This is a small system, and has the ability intensify very quickly. Further east, the large circulation I've been mentioning is still out there at about 18N 37W, but the convection is all displaced east of the low-level center. It's seemingly very close to being upgraded to TD13 if the convection persists.Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
23 August 2005
Jose hits Mexico, TD12 forms over the Bahamas...
Posted by at 6:36 PM