15 August 2005

Irene becomes 3rd hurricane, TD10 comes and goes...

On Sunday night, Irene was upgraded to a hurricane, the third of the 
season.  Since then, the satellite presentation has been quite nice, and 
it's not outlandish to think that it could become a CAT2 storm before 
transitioning to extratropical over the central north Atlantic.  At 21Z, 
Hurricane Irene was located at 36.7N 66.0W and tracking ENE at 10kts.  
The latest satellite imagery suggests that the motion is perhaps even E 
at 10kts.  Estimated intensity is 80kts and 980mb.

TD10 formed in the deep tropics over the weekend, but was in a high-
shear environment.  Only four advisories were written before NHC decided 
to downgrade it to a low-level circulation.  HOWEVER, within about 12 
hours, it will be crossing a low-shear zone, and if it takes advantage 
of that, it could regenerate and become interesting again.

I've descibed the NTC Activity index before, and as of now, the season 
stands at about 79%, which is quite phenomenal for the second week of 
August!  Typically, the bulk of the season is still coming in the next 
two months!
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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