Sorry for the lack of updates the past week, I was on vacation. During that week, Franklin meandered off the east coast of the US and then zipped off into the north central Atlantic, racking up 8 "named storm days", and Gert formed and followed a nearly identical track and intensity as Bret, collecting just 1 named storm day, neither making it to hurricane intensity. Today at 21Z, a somewhat subtropical-looking disturbance was upgraded to TD #8, and is headed generally toward Bermuda. The deep convection is quite removed from the low-level center, and there's an upper Low to the southwest of the surface Low. All-in-all, it doesn't look very tropical to me! It's located at 28.5N 68.7W and moving N at 11kts. Satellite- estimated intensity is 30kts and 1009mb. It is forecast to gradually intensity to a weak tropical storm, at which point it would be named Harvey. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bermuda, and it should pass very near the island tomorrow night. Elsewhere, there's a healthy easterly wave at about 11N 24W, tracking slowly westward at 5kts. Although not real impressive now, conditions are favorable for it to develop. This wave's origins can be tracked back to far eastern Africa on July 26... so it took about 8 days to get to its current location near the Cape Verde Islands. The NTC for 2005 stands at 68.4% as of this afternoon. The average NTC for this time of year is somewhere around 8%.
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.