16 August 2004

Earl weakens, Danielle heading out...

At 15Z today, the NHC downgraded TS Earl to an open wave, based on an aircraft being unable to find a closed surface circulation.  This is largely due to the fast forward motion.  The axis of the wave is at approx 75W.  It's likely that Earl will regenerate in the western Caribbean in a couple days, and head toward to the Yucatan.  This system will be very closely monitored.

Hurricane Danielle continues to spin out in the open Atlantic, already beginning to recurve at 40W.  As of 21Z today, the storm was located at 19.7N 38.6W and heading NNW at 16kts.  Intensity is still 90kts and 970mb, holding steady as a CAT 2 hurricane.  Conditions will begin to deteriorate though, and Danielle is forecast to be a TS by Thursday. Despite the slightly increasing SSTs in its forecast track, the shear will soon increase to 40kts!

Elsewhere, there's a tropical wave at about 10N 25W, just south of the Cape Verde Islands.  It's tracking westward at 20kts and could become TD6 in a day or two.  There is ~15kts of easterly wind shear here, and the SST is 28C and increasing to the west.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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