Since yesterday's update, Charley has done little more than make rain over the northeast, and is presently over Nova Scotia. The NHC has ceased writing advisories on the storm because it has merged with the mid-latitude trough. There are still over 1 million people without power in FL, and the death toll has reached 16, and could still climb a bit more. The scene in the Charlotte Harbor area is one of total destruction, particularly the town of Punta Gorda, just 20 miles NNW of Fort Myers. At 03Z today, Danielle was upgraded to the third hurricane of the season based on satellite appearance. It now has a clear eye and vigorous eyewall, symmetric outflow, and spiral bands. Further strengthening is likely through Wednesday when a trough digs into the area and introduces vertical shear. Danielle is currently a CAT1 storm, but could reach CAT2 and even CAT3 before conditions deteriorate. As of 15Z, Hurricane Danielle was located at 15.0N 32.7W and moving WNW at 14kts. Satellite-estimated intensity is 75kts and 981mb. It will not pose a threat to land, as it will recurve to the northeast by 45W. Earl continues to intensify. It crossed the Windward Islands this morning as a Tropical Storm, and is still at 40kts and 1009mb. Although not very strong now, environmental conditions are favorable (and slowly improving), so it is expected to become the 4th hurricane of the season by the middle of this week. It's presently at 11.9N 62.0W and tracking W at a whopping 24kts. The forecast track takes it near Jamaica on Tuesday morning, and through the Yucatan Channel on Thursday morning. As I mentioned yesterday, all Gulf residents should be watching Earl very closely this week, as it could be a major player next weekend. Landfall looks likely as a major hurricane somewhere in the central Gulf coast area (take that very generally, since it's still 7 days out!). Up to and including the 15Z advisory today, this season (which has only been active for TWO WEEKS!!) has seen: - 5 Named Storms - 15.25 Named Storm Days - 3 Hurricanes - 7.00 Hurricane Days - 2 Intense Hurricanes - 1.00 Intense Hurricane Days In terms of a seasonal net tropical cyclone activity number (those six parameters compared to an "average" year), we have reached 45% of the 6-month seasonal average in just 2 weeks. Of course, the hurricane seaosn technically began on June 1, but the first named storm didn't occur until August 1.
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