Alex's eyewall made a brush with Cape Hatteras today, but the eye itself never passed over. The closest approach was at about 17Z when the center of the eye was just 15 miles offshore. It is now moving northeast away from the coast, and gradually accelerating. A Hurricane Warning is still in effect for the Outer Banks of NC, but that will be allowed to expire as Alex heads out. At 21Z, CAT2 Hurricane Alex was at 35.8N 74.6W, about 65 miles northeast of Cape Hatteras. Intensity has changed little today, and is still at 85kts and 972mb. TD2 continues to show signs of intensification, with healthy outflow, banding, and deeper sustained convection. At 21Z, the Depression was located at 13.6N 56.6W and tracking W at 20kts. It is still weak with sustained winds of 25kts and a MSLP of 1009mb. The fast forward motion makes it harder to discern a closed surface circulation, but an aircraft may be able to investigate the system on Wednesday. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for St. Lucia in the Windward Islands. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Windward Islands north of St. Lucia, and for the majority of the Leeward Islands. The forecast is somewhat tricky... a weakness in the ridge at about 65W may or may not pull TD2 northward into the Atlantic. If not, it could keep trekking westward across the Caribbean. In either case, it's likely that it will increase in strength over the coming days, becoming named on Wednesday and a hurricane on Friday (Bonnie). Elsewhere, the tropical wave near the Cape Verde Islands has lost a lot of its identity and will probably not develop.
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