10 August 2004

Bonnie and Charlie intensifying...

At 21Z yesterday, the remnants of TD2 were upgraded to TS Bonnie, based
on aircraft recon.  It's a very tight circulation, but headed for the US
coast.  It's in moderate shear, but over very warm SSTs; given the small
size of the storm, it will respond readily to any positive or negative
influences.  The 21Z advisory today places TS Bonnie at 24.7N 90.5W and
tracking N at 5kts.  Intensity is 45kts and 1004mb.  It is expected to
continue on the northward track, the recurve toward the Florida
panhandle.  Hurricane intensity should be reached by Wednesday evening
(the NHC forecast calls for a 70kt hurricane making landfall near
Apalachicola on Thursday morning).

After landfall, the track may take the weakening system inland over the
eastern seaboard states, including over DE, NJ, PA, and NY.  If this
occurs, heavy flooding would be a concern.

Also, at 09Z this morning, TD3 was upgraded to TS Charlie, the third
named storm of the season.  As fo 21Z, TS Charlie was at 15.2N 70.8W and
racing WNW at 23kts.  Maximum sustained winds have increased to 45kts
and the MSLP is down to 999mb.  It is forecast to become an 85kt
hurricane by landfall on Saturday.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for souther Haiti and all of
Jamaica.  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Cayman Islands. 
These could be upgraded to Hurricane Watches & Warnings if Charlie
continues to intensify.  As far as the longer-range track forecast goes,
the FL panhandle and western FL peninsula should be prepared for this
one too.  The impact of two consecutive landfalling hurricanes on the
same location could be huge.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

No comments:

Post a Comment