13 October 2003

Mindy weakens, TD19 forms...

At 21Z yesterday, Mindy weakened to a Depression, and continues to be
absorbed into a midlatitude trough.  She is very poorly organized, and
as of 21Z was loacted at 26.1N 67.7W and tracking E at 8kts.  Intensity
is estimated to be 25kts and 1007mb.  The forecast is for continued

The tropical wave I mentioned on the 11th has become better organized
and was upgraded to TD19 at 21Z today.   It's at 9.6N 38.7W and moving W
at 7kts.  Maximum sustained winds are 25kts and the MSLP is 1008mb. 
Conditions appear favorable for further development, and this should
become TS Nicholas by Tuesday afternoon.  Vertical shear may inhibit the
storm from reaching hurricane strength.  It formed far enough south that
it could enter the Caribbean in the long term, unlike many of the last
few storms that recurved rather far east.  Also, this is very late in
the season for a Cape Verde storm to form, but it's obviously possible!

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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