It's been a while since my last update, but very little has transpired. Since 10/14, TD19 was upgraded to TS Nicholas on 10/15, and never reached hurricane intensity. The steering flow has been relatively weak and the vertical shear has been moderately high, resulting in a quasi-stationary storm that has struggled to maintain organization. At 15Z today, TS Nicholas was located at 18.5N 51.5W and tracking W at 7kts. Intensity is back up to 45kts and MSLP has been dropped to 1002mb. From the satellite perspective, the storm has made a noticeable comeback in deep convection, although the shear is still apparent. The forecast is for a northward turn and gradual weakening. Nicholas has accumulated 6.75 Named Storm Days, and 1-2 more are probably in store. I believe this brings the season total up to 69.75 NSD so far (the climatological seasonal average is about 49). Another note on climatology... this season is ALREADY 62% more active than the average season, and there's still another five weeks left ("activity" defined as a function of Named Storms, Named Storm Days, Hurricanes, Hurricane Days, Intense Hurricanes, and Intense Hurricane Days). The last year that was this active was 1999. See http://einstein.atmos.colostate.edu/~mcnoldy/tropics/NTC.html for a look at some recent past seasons.
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