21 October 2003

Nicholas still out there...

It's been a while since my last update, but very little has transpired. 
Since 10/14, TD19 was upgraded to TS Nicholas on 10/15, and never
reached hurricane intensity.  The steering flow has been relatively weak
and the vertical shear has been moderately high, resulting in a
quasi-stationary storm that has struggled to maintain organization.

At 15Z today, TS Nicholas was located at 18.5N 51.5W and tracking W at
7kts.  Intensity is back up to 45kts and MSLP has been dropped to
1002mb.  From the satellite perspective, the storm has made a noticeable
comeback in deep convection, although the shear is still apparent.  The
forecast is for a northward turn and gradual weakening.

Nicholas has accumulated 6.75 Named Storm Days, and 1-2 more are
probably in store.  I believe this brings the season total up to 69.75
NSD so far (the climatological seasonal average is about 49).  Another
note on climatology... this season is ALREADY 62% more active than the
average season, and there's still another five weeks left ("activity"
defined as a function of Named Storms, Named Storm Days, Hurricanes,
Hurricane Days, Intense Hurricanes, and Intense Hurricane Days).  The
last year that was this active was 1999.  See
http://einstein.atmos.colostate.edu/~mcnoldy/tropics/NTC.html for a look
at some recent past seasons.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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