14 October 2003

Mindy dissipates, TD19 nearly a TS...

At 03Z today, the final advisory was written on Mindy as she completed
the extratropical transition and is now fully absorbed by a trough.  She
never reached hurricane strength, but did accumulate 2.0 Named Storm

TD19 continues to organize east of the Lesser Antilles.  This morning's
infrared satellite imagery shows a very cold CDO, with cloud tops as
cold as -85C at times.  The low-level center, although somewhat
challenging to find, is approximately under the CDO.  As of 15Z, TD19
was at 10.8N 41.4W and tracking WNW at 8kts.  Intensity is estimated to
be 30kts and 1006mb.  This will likely be upgraded to TS Nicholas at the
21Z advisory today, and could reach hurricane strength during the
weekend.  The track forecast recurves the storm by about 47W, sneaking
north through a weakness in the subtropical ridge.  However, if the
ridge does not break down according to the models, the track will be
forced more westerly.  Just something to keep an eye on.

Elsewhere, there is an area of disturbed weather over the western
Caribbean Sea, right by Honduras and Nicaragua.  Conditions are
favorable for development, but proximity to land could hinder it.  If it
continues a westward drift, it stands a better chance of developing in
the EastPac.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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